Impact of Watershed Subdivision and Soil Data Resolution on SWAT Model Calibration and Parameter Uncertainty1

Abstract: Impact of watershed subdivision and soil data resolution on Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model calibration and parameter uncertainty is investigated by creating 24 different watershed model configurations for two study areas in northern Indiana. SWAT autocalibration tool is used to calibrate 14 parameters for simulating seven years of daily streamflow records. Calibrated parameter sets are found to be different for all 24 watershed configurations, however in terms of calibrated model output, their effect is minimal. In some cases, autocalibration is followed by manual calibration to correct for low flows, which were underestimated during autocalibration. In addition to normal validation using four years of streamflow data for each calibrated parameter set, cross‐validation (using a calibrated parameter set from one model configuration to validate observations using another configuration) is performed to investigate the effect of different model configurations on streamflow prediction. Results show that streamflow output during cross‐validation is not affected, thus highlighting the non‐unique nature of calibrated parameters in hydrologic modeling. Finally, parameter uncertainty is investigated by extracting good parameter sets during the autocalibration process. Parameter uncertainty analysis suggests that significant parameters show very narrow range of uncertainty across different watershed configurations compared with nonsignificant parameters. Results from recalibration of some configurations using only six significant parameters were comparable to that from calibration using 14 parameters, suggesting that including fewer significant parameters could reduce the uncertainty arising from model parameters, and also expedite the calibration process.     

The relationship between recruitment processes, familiarity, trust, perceived risk and safety

Introduction and Method

Participants′ perceptions of the safety-related aspects of their organization′s recruitment processes were examined, as were their perceptions of safety aspects associated with new recruits.

Results

One hundred and fifty-four professional fire fighters indicated the trust they held in the safety-related aspects of their organizations′ selection and pre-start training. Perceived trust in pre-start training was negatively correlated (r = -.24, p < .01) with the risk associated with new recruits, and positively correlated (r = .50, p < .01) with ratings of trust in recruits to immediately work safely. Furthermore, trust in recruits to immediately work safely was negatively correlated (r = -.21, p < .01) with crews′ safety behavior toward recruits.

Conclusions

These results are interpreted as particularly dangerous for workers, as new recruits lack familiarity with aspects of their new workplace that cannot be addressed by either selection or pre-start training, making them a risk.

Impact on Industry

Organizations should actively identify new recruits, and encourage existing team members not to immediately trust new recruits to work safely.     

The safety policies and practices of community multi-purpose recreation facilities

This research investigated the under-explored area of safety in multi-purpose recreation facilities (MPRFs). Facility managers and other managerial staff (key informants) from four MPRFs in Victoria, Australia participated in semi-structured interviews. Safety was considered important from Occupational Health and Safety (OH&S), business viability and legal liability perspectives but not from a health promotion or public health point of view. Most implemented injury prevention measures required gymnasium and pool staff or users to change their behaviours. Awareness of safety standards was higher for some operational areas (e.g. aquatics, child-care) than others (e.g. gymnasium, group fitness activities). Key informants struggled to keep abreast of legislation changes and they relied on commercial, regulatory, and industry information sources rather than evidence of best practice. Reported factors influencing safety in MPRFs were classified into three types: internal (e.g. training, culture); external (e.g. weather, demographic change); and governance (e.g. insurance, industry standards). Comprehensive, relevant and accessible industry safety standards, which focus not only on OH&S but equally on health promotion principles and public health perspectives linked to injury prevention, are required. Training is needed to reflect these broader and equally important perspectives. Health/injury, fitness/recreation and insurance sector links should be improved to ensure a consistent, sustainable approach to safety.     

The effect of the exposure time on the value of a manSievert averted

The basis of the manSievert as a unit for collective radiation dose is discussed and previous recommendations are considered for how much should be spent to avert a collective dose of 1 manSv. New calculations are given using the J-value method. It is shown that the value to be assigned to averting a manSievert depends on the duration of averted exposure as well as on the net discount rate and the loan rate thought to be appropriate. Different figures will result depending on whether the exposed group consists of workers or the general public. The variation with dose duration is so large that it is not possible to recommend a single figure for the value of a manSievert. Instead, tables are given at two conservative, loan and net discount rates for the value of a manSievert as a function of exposure time. The base data for the J-value method need to be updated annually, and this means that the values given in the tables will increase over time as people live longer and become richer.     

Can level of safety climate predict level of orientation toward safety in a decision making task?

Establishing the relationship between level of safety climate and safety performance is a current challenge. This work examines the relationship between level of safety climate and orientation toward safety in the decision making process and choice. Alternatively, this work seeks to answer the question of whether level of safety climate can predict safety-oriented decision making. A generalized safety climate questionnaire and a decision making simulation are utilized to examine this relationship. The results indicate that level of safety climate is not a significant predictor of the decision process; however, it was found to be a significant predictor of the selection of safer choices.     

Pedestrian crossing decision-making: A situational and behavioral approach

Among road users, pedestrians are those whose continued trajectory is the less constrained by the environment and by the regulation rules. Consequently, the choice of where, when and how to cross roads are more or less conforming with the awaited behavior. Proceeding with an experimental approach, from observations of pedestrian crossings to the modeling of the decision-making process, a categorization of both environments and of pedestrian behavior is proposed.     

TAMMEF therapy in the treatment of shoulder periarthritis: efficacy and safety

The utility and the safety of the extremely low frequencies (ELF) electromagnetic fields in the treatment of numerous diseases have been demonstrated. Moreover, the effects of these fields seem to depend on their respective codes (frequency, intensity, waveform). We want to value the effects and the safety of the therapeutic application of a musically modulated electromagnetic field (TAMMEF) system, which field is piloted by a musical signal and its parameters (frequency, intensity, waveform) are modified in time, randomly varying within the respective ranges, so that all possible codes can occur during a single application. Sixty subjects, affected by shoulder periarthritis were enrolled in the study and randomly divided into three groups of 20 patients each: the first exposed to TAMMEF, the second exposed to ELF, the third exposed to a simulated field. All subjects underwent a cycle of 15 daily sessions of 30 min each and a clinical examination upon enrolment, after 7 days of therapy, at the end of the cycle and at a follow-up 30 days later. All the patients of TAMMEF group and ELF group completed the therapy without the appearance of side effects: they presented a significant improvement of the subjective pain and the functional limitation, which remained stable at the follow-up examination. In those exposed to a simulated field group, there was no improvement of the pain symptoms or articular functionality. This study suggests that the TAMMEF system is efficacious and safe in the control of pain symptoms and in the reduction of functional limitation in patients with shoulder periarthritis. Moreover, the effects of the TAMMEF system cover those produced by the ELF field.     

In-stand scenic beauty of variable retention harvests and mature forests in the U.S. Pacific Northwest: The effects of basal area, density, retention pattern and down wood

Tensions between amenity- and timber-based economies in the U.S. and Canadian Pacific Northwest motivated a study of scenic beauty inside mature forests and timber harvests. A diverse sample of regional forests, measures of forest structure, and large, representative samples of photographs and public judges were employed to measure scenic beauty inside un-harvested mature and old-growth forests, and timber harvests. The latter varied systematically in down wood levels and retention level and pattern. Scenic beauty tended to be optimized at a basal area of 110–155 m³/ha and/or 700–900 trees/ha. Older forests and those with larger trees were perceived to be more beautiful. In harvests, greater retention levels, less down wood, and dispersed rather than aggregated retention patterns contributed to aesthetic improvements. Green-tree retention harvests offer considerable potential gains in perceived scenic beauty compared to perceived very ugly clearcuts, particularly at higher retention levels. These gains are more reliable from dispersed retention patterns. The silvicultural parameters studied change strength in affecting scenic beauty with changes in retention level. These interactions are explored in relation to a range of scenic quality objectives as an aid to planners, visual impact analysts, and silviculturists.     

A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water and Watershed Systems

In this article we present a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision-making. The framework addresses three issues complicating assessments of climate change impacts—linkages across spatial scales, linkages across temporal scales, and linkages across scientific and management disciplines. A major theme underlying the framework is that, due to current limitations in modeling capabilities, assessing and responding to climate change should be approached from the perspective of risk assessment and management rather than as a prediction problem. The framework is based generally on ecological risk assessment and similar approaches. A second theme underlying the framework is the need for close collaboration among climate scientists, scientists interested in assessing impacts, and resource managers and decision makers. A case study illustrating an application of the framework is also presented that provides a specific, practical example of how the framework was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in a mid-Atlantic, U.S., watershed.