基于ARIMA模型的辽河流域生态足迹动态模拟与预测

将能值与生态足迹理论相结合,引入能量折算系数,通过能值密度构建能值-生态足迹模型,并应用此模型对辽河流域2001—2010年生态承载力和生态足迹进行计算。生态承载力计算主要是自然生态承载力和本地产品产出承载力,其中自然生态承载力主要考虑可更新资源的承载力,本地产品产出承载力主要包括生物资源产出承载力和工业产品产出承载力。生态足迹的计算主要包括消费足迹和污染足迹,消费足迹主要测算生物资源消费、能源消费和水资源消费足迹。污染足迹主要测算废气和生活废水、工业废水对自然生态系统带来的负荷。测算结果表明:2001—2010年辽河流域人均生态承载力和人均生态足迹均有所增加,但是生态足迹的增长速度远远大于生态承载力,致使流域内自2001与2009年生态略有盈余外,其余年份均出现生态赤字,处于不可持续发展状态。以能值-生态足迹模型测算结果为基础,基于EViews采用自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA),对流域内10年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行动态模拟。首先通过ADF与PP单位根检验时间序列的平稳性;其次分析序列的自相关函数图和偏自相关函数,初步确定AR和MA的阶次;再根据R2、AIC及SC准则,进行模型参数估计并诊断分析;最后确定最佳模拟模型。以ARIMA模型预测2011—2015年辽河流域生态足迹和生态承载力的演变趋势。预测结果表明,人均生态足迹在未来5年内会继续呈直线式增长,到2015年达到7.387 8 hm2,是2001年的2.16倍;而人均生态承载力在2011年之后开始下降,生态赤字继续扩大,到2015年增长到-4.167 67,约为2005年的10倍,流域内不可持续发展形势会更加恶化。最后提出辽河流域生态安全建设的对策。能值-生态足迹模型测算结果与实地调研基本相符,较真实反映了辽河流域可持续发展状况。基于ARIMA模型模拟预测结果可为未来流域开发和建设提供参考依据。     

The bumpy road to better risk control: A Tour d'Horizon of new concepts and ideas

How can we be sure that sufficient safeguards are in place and safety level is acceptable? As we heard Prof. Nancy Leveson stating at last year's MKOPSC symposium, even with all components functioning, dysfunctional component interaction can still be a cause of mishap. Human factor expert, Prof. Erik Hollnagel, asserts it in even stronger terms: the Efficiency-Thoroughness Trade-off principle, or rather dilemma, contends that one can hardly do it perfectly well. Perfect thoroughness, certainly in complex situations, requires an amount of time with which efficiency will be in conflict. For improved situational awareness, sufficient resilience, and adequate risk control, we must adopt a top-down system approach. Hazard scenarios possible in the system, with all its entangled interactions of hardware, procedures, and humans shall be identified bottom-up and causal relations made clear. Fortunately, in recent years two potentially helpful tools have become available: Blended Hazid, a vastly improved, heavily computerized system approach making use of HazOp and FMEA, and Bayesian networks, a tool to model cause–effect structures allowing inclusion of uncertainty information. Bayesian networks as an infrastructure enable also the use of indicator values to relate the result of safety management effectiveness, which expresses itself as safety attitude of employees, competence, workload, and motivation, with their effects on error and failure probability. This paper will explain the directions these developments are advancing and the openings they provide for further process safety research and risk assessment, which when applied will result in improved process risk control.     

Use of ecoacoustics to determine biodiversity patterns across ecological gradients

The variety of local animal sounds characterizes a landscape. We used ecoacoustics to noninvasively assess the species richness of various biotopes typical of an ecofriendly forest plantation with diverse ecological gradients and both nonnative and indigenous vegetation. The reference area was an adjacent large World Heritage Site protected area (PA). All sites were in a global biodiversity hotspot. Our results showed how taxa segregated into various biotopes. We identified 65 singing species, including birds, frogs, crickets, and katydids. Large, natural, protected grassland sites in the PA had the highest mean acoustic diversity (14.1 species/site). Areas covered in nonnative timber or grass species were devoid of acoustic species. Sites grazed by native and domestic megaherbivores were fairly rich (5.1) in acoustic species but none were unique to this habitat type, where acoustic diversity was greater than in intensively managed grassland sites (0.04). Natural vegetation patches inside the plantation mosaic supported high mean acoustic diversity (indigenous forests 7.6, grasslands 8.0, wetlands 9.1), which increased as plant heterogeneity and patch size increased. Indigenous forest patches within the plantation mosaic contained a highly characteristic acoustic species assemblage, emphasizing their complementary contribution to local biodiversity. Overall, acoustic signals determined spatial biodiversity patterns and can be a useful tool for guiding conservation.     

Fire in the woods or fire in the boiler: Implementing rural district heating to reduce wildfire risks in the forest–urban interface

Many rural communities in British Columbia (western Canada) are at risk from wildfire. This risk will increase over time as a result of climate change because of higher average temperatures, longer growing seasons, and more intense droughts. On the other hand, these communities are also faced with rising fuel costs and a growing demand for heat as suburban population increases. The fact these communities are surrounded by forests presents an opportunity to combine community wildfire risk abatement with bioenergy development. Additional co-benefits include: (1) reduced community energy expenditures; (2) the creation of local jobs; (3) climate change mitigation; and (4) increased community energy security. Here, we present results from three pilot rural communities (Burns Lake, Invermere, and Sicamous, all of them in British Columbia) designed to evaluate the feasibility of wildfire risk abatement in conjunction with bioenergy production. Maps were created showing each community's forest–urban interface area with quantified estimates of its sustainable woody biomass resource potential under different management scenarios while monitoring ecosystem and soil health. The results and experience gained through this work has been synthesized in a calculator tool to help other communities make their own screening-level assessments. This calculator is a freely available on-line tool: FIRST Heat.     

Ecological degradation and hydraulic dispersion of contaminant in wetland

For the typical case of a pulsed contaminant emission into a free surface wetland flow, a theoretical analysis is presented in this paper for the decay of the depth-averaged concentration under the combined action of ecological degradation and hydraulic dispersion. Based on a first-order reaction model extensively employed in related ecological risk assessment and environmental hydraulic design, the effect of ecological degradation is separated from the hydraulic effect via an exponential transformation for the general formulation for contaminant transport. The speed profile of a fully developed steady flow through the wetland is obtained. A hydraulic dispersion model for the depth-averaged concentration is devised as an extension of Taylor’s classical analysis on dispersion, and corresponding hydraulic dispersivity is obtained by Aris’s method of moments. Analytical solution of depth-averaged concentration is rigorously derived and characterized. For typical pollutant constituents in wastewater emission, the evolution of contaminant cloud in the wetland flow is illustrated by critical length and duration of influenced region with contaminant concentration beyond given environmental standard level, with essential implications for ecological risk assessment and environmental management.     

塔里木油气资源开发的环境影响分析

塔里木石油资源的开发极大地促进了南疆地区社会和经济的发展。但同时也对开发区自然环境造成了一定的影响。深入全面地分析这些影响，制定预防措施，防止由此而引起的生态环境的进一步恶化，这对保障国民经济高速、持续、稳定发展，有着十分重要的意义。     

Assessing Water Quality at Large Geographic Scales: Relations Among Land Use,Water Physicochemistry,Riparian Condition,and Fish Community Structure

Data collected from 172 sites in 20 major river basins between 1993 and 1995 as part of the US Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program were analyzed to assess relations among basinwide land use (agriculture, forest, urban, range), water physicochemistry, riparian condition, and fish community structure. A multimetric approach was used to develop regionally referenced indices of fish community and riparian condition. Across large geographic areas, decreased riparian condition was associated with water-quality constituents indicative of nonpoint source inputs—total nitrogen and suspended sediment and basinwide urban land use. Decreased fish community condition was associated with increases in total dissolved solids and rangeland use and decreases in riparian condition and agricultural land use. Fish community condition was relatively high even in areas where agricultural land use was relatively high (>50% of the basin). Although agricultural land use can have deleterious effects on fish communities, the results of this study suggest that other factors also may be important, including practices that regulate the delivery of nutrients, suspended sediments, and total dissolved solids into streams. Across large geographic scales, measures of water physicochemistry may be better indicators of fish community condition than basinwide land use. Whereas numerous studies have indicated that riparian restorations are successful in specific cases, this analysis suggests the universal importance of riparian zones to the maintenance and restoration of diverse fish communities in streams.     

生态足迹研究述评

自然资源是人类赖以生存的物质基础，人类活动必须限制在环境资源承载力的值范围之内，传统的资源利用评价方法存在着考虑不全面、计算复杂、可操作性差等不足，因而有必要从生态系统本身的功能出发对人类活动的可持续性进行评价，生态足迹提出于20世纪90年代，是一种新颖的资源利用评价方法，它计算简明，对地区可持续发展决策具有一定的指导性，迄今为止，人们已在不同尺度上开展了大量相关研究，本文介绍了生态足迹的基本概念和进展，度评述了该方法的优点及不足，最后对今后的研究做出了展望。     

泰州全市及生态红线区“十二五”土地利用变化探究

以土地利用转移矩阵为基础,通过计算土地利用净变化量、交换变化量和绝对变化总量,对泰州市及生态红线区2010—2014年土地利用空间变化特征做分析。结果显示:耕地转化为建设用地及水域湿地景观为主要变化趋势,生态红线区域内土地开发利用受到较严格的限制,保护措施成效较好,其自然生态环境得到持续的修复和改善。     

Transaction costs,communication and spatial coordination in Payment for Ecosystem Services Schemes

Agricultural producer participation and spatial coordination of land use decisions are key components for enhancing the effective delivery of ecosystem services from private land. However, inducing participation in Payment for Ecosystem Services schemes for coordinating land management choices is challenging from a policy design perspective owing to transaction costs associated with participation. This paper employs a laboratory experiment to investigate the impact of such costs on participation and land use in the context of an Agglomeration Bonus (AB) scheme. The AB creates a coordination game with multiple Nash equilibria related to alternative spatially-coordinated land use patterns. The experiment varies transaction costs between two levels (high and low), which affects the risks and payoffs of coordinating on the different equilibria. Additionally, an option to communicate is implemented between neighbors arranged on a local network to facilitate spatial coordination. Results indicate a significant difference in participation and performance under high and low transaction costs, with lower uptake and performance when transaction costs are high. These effects are, however, impacted by transaction costs faced in the past. Communication improves both AB participation rates and performance with the effect being greater for participants facing high transaction costs.