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191.
贝纳德效应和地震预报 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文根据海城地震前后重力变化的实测资料提出重力加速度随时间变化的一种简化表示。在重力发生扰动时对贝纳德问题的动力学方程进行求解。计算结果表明,在强地震的孕育期,贝纳德花样的周期变化在一定时间后将自动停止。这个结论的验证可以作为一种新的地震预测方法的理论基础。 相似文献
192.
Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test. 相似文献
193.
A multiple criteria evaluation of sustainable agricultural development models using AHP 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Selection of the appropriate agricultural development model has become an important issue in Iran. Using data from Fars province
of Iran, the purpose of this paper is to use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for selecting between the two competing sustainable
agricultural development models, which have been developed based on the general tenets of Ecological Modernization (EM) and
De-Modernization (DM) theories. Farmers, environmentalists, board members of rural cooperative, rural women and experts from
Fars Agricultural (Jehad-e-Keshavarzi) Organization participated in application of AHP to this study. They applied AHP to
determine the priority of DM and EM based sustainable agricultural development models. Each group determined the priority
of the two models for sustainable agricultural development. The findings indicated that ecological criteria i.e. wise use
of resources, environmental protection and product quality are the most important criteria for sustainable agriculture of
Iran, followed by economic criterion employment and social criterion participation. A sensitivity analysis was carried out
to determine the critical factors that affected the priority of alternatives. The results indicated that EM-based sustainable
agricultural development model has a higher priority as the theoretical base of agricultural development of Iran.
Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue 相似文献
194.
In contrast to Europe, the USA and South Africa, Australia has no specific, overarching federal legislation to underpin a nationally-coordinated framework for monitoring, assessing and reporting estuarine condition. This has resulted in a complex mosaic of diverse approaches and governance structures, hindering the ability to make inter-State comparisons. In this second part of a comprehensive three-part review, we present a systematic appraisal of current and impending approaches for measuring and reporting estuarine condition in each of Australia’s States and Territories. A concise summary is provided in each case, supported by extensive appendices containing detailed accounts of relevant monitoring and reporting programs. We synthesise and evaluate this output at the State/Territory level, highlighting areas of improvement and major gaps. 相似文献
195.
Whose lawn is it anyway? Redefining problems and the implementation of municipal stormwater policies
Jonathan M. Fisk 《Local Environment》2015,20(1):62-80
Research of problem definitions typically centres on agenda setting and formulation with less attention given to implementation. In recognition of this gap, this analysis examines the relationship between issue definition, issue redefinition and policy implementation by reviewing two municipal stormwater plans. The results suggest that in larger issue contexts replete with ambiguity and uncertainty, problem definitions are often “tweaked” and adapted during the implementation process. In short, street-level bureaucrats craft “genetically related” but idiosyncratic problem definitions – that fit their own policy-making context. In the case of stormwater, “solutions”; are best described as dynamic policies built upon the values associated with technical expertise, public participation and environmental sustainability. 相似文献
196.
Mercury(Hg) exists in different chemical forms presenting varied toxic potentials. It is necessary to explore an ecological risk assessment method for different mercury species in aquatic environment. The predicted no-effect concentrations(PNECs) for Hg(Ⅱ) and methyl mercury(Me Hg) in the aqueous phase, calculated using the species sensitivity distribution method and the assessment factor method, were 0.39 and 6.5 × 10-3μg/L, respectively. The partition theory of Hg between sediment and aqueous phases was considered, along with PNECs for the aqueous phase to conduct an ecological risk assessment for Hg in the sediment phase. Two case studies, one in China and one in the Western Black Sea, were conducted using these PNECs. The toxicity of mercury is heavily dependent on their forms,and their potential ecological risk should be respectively evaluated on the basis of mercury species. 相似文献
197.
邻避问题激发的群体性事件是当前危险设施选址面临的主要问题,而核设施则是邻避设施中负外部性等级较高的一类设施.通过分析各行业邻避问题的九因素分析框架引入核设施邻避问题的研究,并结合国内外核行业和值得借鉴的非核行业典型案例进行分析,发现了影响邻避问题的核心要素包括程序公正、企业与政府公众形象、行业污名化倾向和补偿不合理等方面内容.核设施运营单位应在这些方面制定针对性策略和措施以减小邻避问题对核行业发展的影响. 相似文献
198.
199.
简述了龙山县生态公益林建设与管理的现状,剖析了新时期发挥生态公益林的生态、社会效益与提高林农收入矛盾,分析了龙山县生态公益林建设与管理中存在的问题,提出了龙山县实现生态公益林生态、社会效益与提高林农收入的措施.参4. 相似文献
200.
Ammonium nitrogen and total germanium are among the main pollutants in the wastewater discharged from the leather industry. The intake of high concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and/or total germanium harms human health and biological species, as is well documented in literature. This paper focuses on assessing the trends of ammonium nitrogen and total germanium concentrations through time in two watersheds (Aojiang and Oujiang) in the Wenzhou metropolitan area of Zhejiang Province and their relationships with the released wastewater using regression and correlation statistics. The paper also utilizes the integrated pollution index to evaluate water quality in the two watersheds. Preliminary results show that, from 1992 to 1998 in the Aojing watershed, the concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and total germanium increased 13 and 14 times, respectively, decreasing somewhat after 1998, while between 1992 and 1997 in the Oujiang watershed, the concentrations increased, then decreased after 1997. The concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and total germanium are positively related to the amount of released wastewater. The concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and total germanium exceeded water standards 12 and 3 times, respectively, in Pingyang county of the Aojiang watershed, 14 and 3.3 times in Lucheng District of the Oujiang watershed, and 14 and 3.8 times in the Ouhai Oujiang watershed, respectively. In Pingyang county of the Aojiang watershed, the water quality degraded from Type III in 1992 to over Type V in 2003, and in the Oujiang watershed, the water quality degraded from Type II to over Type IV in 1999, when they were compared with the water quality standards. The water quality slightly improved in 2003 for the Oujiang watershed. It appears that pollution did have a direct positive correlation with leather industry production in the Pingyang Aojing watershed, while there was a negative correlation between the two in the Oujiang watershed. In these two watersheds, the integrated pollution index did not appear to relate to population dynamics and agricultural production. This paper also discusses the current new methodologies and approaches adopted nationally and internationally to reduce the contaminants and purify the environment for maintaining a sustainable and healthier environment in Wenzhou. 相似文献