A multi-scale approach to modelling spatial and dynamic ecological patterns for reservoir's water quality management

With growing levels of urbanization and agriculture throughout the world, it is increasingly important that both research and management efforts take into account the effects of this widespread landscape alteration and its consequences for natural systems. Freshwater ecosystems, namely reservoirs, are particularly sensitive to land use changes. In this context, modelling can be very useful, for decision support, as an investigative tool to forecast the outcome of various scenarios, to guide current management in order to meet future targets and to develop integrated frameworks for management accordingly to the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The present paper examined the applicability of a holistic Stochastic-Dynamic Methodology (StDM), coupled with a Cellular Automata (CA) model, in capturing how expected changes at land use level will alter the ecological status of lentic ecosystems, namely at physicochemical and biological levels. The methodology was applied to Portuguese reservoirs located in the Douro's basin and illustrated with a series of stochastic-dynamic and spatial outputs taking into account expected scenarios regarding land use changes. Overall, the simulation results are encouraging since they seem to demonstrate the tool reliability in capturing the stochastic environmental dynamics of the selected metrics facing spatial explicit scenarios. The ultimate goal was to couple monitoring assessment and the described modelling techniques to ease management and decision making regarding the practical implementation of the WFD, both at the scale of the reservoir body and at the scale of the respective river watershed dynamics.     

国内外产排污系数开发现状及其启示

通过对国外产排污系数开发应用现状的系统分析,重点研究了美国产排污系数的基本特征、开发方法和途径以及遇到的障碍,结合我国产排污系数的开发现状和存在的问题,得出了对我国该领域研究的启示:建立产排污系数开发和管理的官方常设机构,定期发布最新数据;构建国家产排污系数信息管理平台;细化行业污染源分类,完善污染物种类;深入对产排污系数开发的理论体系和技术方法的研究,建立产排污系数核算方法学.指出了产排污系数不确定性评估研究将是未来重要的研究内容.      

Trophic field overlap: A new approach to quantify keystone species

It is a current challenge to better understand the relative importance of species in ecosystems, and the network perspective is able to offer quantitative tools for this. It is plausible to assume, in general, that well-linked species, being key interactors, are also more important for the community. Recently a number of methods have been suggested for quantifying the network position of species in ecological networks (like the topological importance metric, TI). Most of them are based on node centrality indices and it may happen that the two most important species in a food web have very similar interaction structure and they can essentially replace each other if one becomes extinct. For conservation considerations it is a challenge to identify species that are richly connected and, at the same time, have a relatively unique and irreplaceable interaction pattern. We present a new method and illustrate our approach by using the Kuosheng Bay trophic network in Taiwan. The new method is based on the interaction matrix, where the strength of the interaction between nodes i and j depends only on topology. By defining a threshold separating weak and strong interactors, we define the effective range of interactions for each graph node. If the overlaps between pairs of these ranges are quantified, we gain a metric expressing how unique is the interaction pattern of a focal node (TO). The combination of centrality (TI) and uniqueness (TO) is called topological functionality (TF). We compare the nodal importance rank provided by this metric to others based on a variety of centrality measures. The main conclusion is that shrimps seem to have the most unique interaction pattern despite that their structural importance has been underestimated by all conventional centrality indices. Also, our network analysis suggests that fisheries disturb the ecosystem in a more critical network position than the impingement by the local power plant.     

Comparing network analysis methodologies for consumer–resource relations at species and ecosystems scales

This research compares two existing methodologies, mixed trophic impact analysis and utility analysis, which use network analysis to evaluate the direct, pair-wise, and indirect, holistic, ecological relations between ecosystem compartments. The two approaches have many similarities, but differ in some key assumptions which affect both the final results and interpretations. Here, we briefly introduce both methodologies through a series of two simple examples; a 3-compartment competition model and a 3-compartment food chain model, and then apply the methodologies to a 15-compartment ecosystem model of the Chesapeake Bay. This example demonstrates how implementing the various conceptual and methodological assumptions lead to differing results. Notably, the overall number of positive relations is greatly affected by the treatment of the self-interactions and the handling of detritus compartments lead to a distinction between ecological or trophic relations. We recommend slight changes to both methodologies, not necessarily in order to bring them completely together, but because each has some points which are stronger and better defensible.     

Cycling in ecosystems: An individual based approach

Cycling index is an important ecological indicator used in ecosystem analysis. The higher the cycling in an ecosystem, the higher the utilization of mass and energy within the system before it is lost due to respiration and other factors. For a stock-flow type ecosystem model at steady state, Finn’s cycling index (FCI) can be computed using simple matrix algebra. However, it is difficult to measure how well this index represents the actual cycling occurring in the system. In this paper, we study cycling in ecological networks using an individual based approach (particle tracking algorithm). This new simulation method provides access to the pathway data of individual particles that flow in the system, therefore one can quantify cycling using this pathway data quite literally. We used particle tracking simulations (PTS) to compute a cycling index using Finn’s idea of flux based cycling. Our simulation based results (using no matrix algebra) agree with Finn’s cycling index, verifying the accuracy of both the PTS, and the original linear algebraic formulation of FCI.     

Comparative network analysis toward characterization of systemic organization for human–environmental sustainability

A preliminary study in comparative ecological network analysis was conducted to identify key assumptions and methodological challenges, test initial hypotheses and explore systemic and network structural characteristics for environmentally sustainable ecosystems. A nitrogen network for the U.S. beef supply chain – a small sub-network of the industrial food system analyzed as a pilot study – was constructed and compared to four non-human carbon and nitrogen trophic networks for the Chesapeake Bay and the Florida Everglades. These non-human food webs served as sustainable reference systems. Contrary to the main original hypothesis, the “window of vitality” and the number of network roles did not clearly differentiate between a human sub-network and the more complete non-human networks. The effective trophic level of humans (a partial estimate of trophic level based on the single food source of beef) was much higher (8.1) than any non-human species (maximum of 4.88). Network connectance, entropy, total dependency coefficients, trophic efficiencies and the ascendency to capacity ratio also indicated differences that serve as hypotheses for future tests on more comprehensive human food webs. The study elucidated important issues related to (1) the steady state assumption, which is more problematic for industrial human systems, (2) the absence or dearth of data on contributions of dead humans and human wastes to feed other species in an integrated food web, (3) the ambiguity of defining some industrial compartments as living versus non-living, and (4) challenges with constructing compartments and trophic transfers in industrial versus non-human food webs. The two main novel results are (1) the progress made toward adapting ecological network analysis (ENA) methodology for analysis of human food networks in industrial cultures and (2) characterizing the critical aspects of comparative ENA for understanding potential causes of the problems, and providing avenues for solutions, for environmental sustainability. Based on this work, construction and comparative network analysis of a more comprehensive industrial human food network seems warranted and likely to provide valuable insights for modifying structures of industrial food networks to be more like natural networks and more sustainable.     

Exploring community assembly through an individual-based model for trophic interactions

Traditionally, the dynamics of community assembly has been analyzed by means of deterministic models of differential equations. Despite the theoretical advances provided by such models, they are restricted to questions about community-wide features. The individual-based modeling offers an opportunity to link bionomic features to patterns at the community scale, allowing us to understand how trait-based assembly rules can arise by dynamical processes. The present paper introduces an individual-based model of community assembly, and discusses some of the major advantages and drawbacks of this approach. The model was framed to deal with predation among size-structured populations, incorporating allometric constraints to energetic requirements, movement, life-history features and interaction relationships among individuals. A protocol of assembly procedure is proposed, in which a period of intense species introductions is followed by a period without introductions. The resultant communities did not present any pattern of trait over-dispersion, meaning that the multivariate distances of bionomic features among co-occurring species were neither larger nor more regular than expected in a random collection of species. It suggests a weak influence of interspecific interactions in the model environment and individualistic rules of coexistence, driven mainly by the spatial structure. This highlights that trait over-dispersion and resource partitioning should not be considered a necessary condition for coexistence, even in communities entirely structured by internal processes like predation and competition.     

中国天然水体中五氯酚的浓度水平、管理及来源分析

五氯酚(PCP)属内分泌污染物,也是可对生物产生复合毒性的有机污染物。五氯酚及其钠盐曾被用作杀螺剂在我国血吸虫病流行疫区大范围长时间使用。为了解PCP在中国水环境中的污染现状,在阐述中国PCP的生产使用状况基础上,重点论述中国水环境介质中PCP的污染分布及影响因素。中国多地河流水环境中均存在PCP,其中沿长江流域的长江、洞庭湖、鄱阳湖PCP残留量较高,虽均在限值范围内,但PCP污染范围有从主要江河、湖泊等向沿海海域蔓延的趋势。PCP使用历史、用药区域类型、区域PCP消耗量等均会影响PCP的残留量,血吸虫病疫区PCP残留量明显高于对照区,在PCP及其钠盐显著减少使用后(2003年以后),施药历史仍然影响着水体介质中PCP的残留情况,PCP虽已停用,但其对环境所造成的不良影响还在持续。与国外研究相比,我国水环境介质中的PCP污染偏高且有上升趋势,这可能与部分区域近年来重现血吸虫病后施药控制有关。未来一段时期内有关PCP及其环境副产物在环境介质中的迁移转化规律、人群暴露评估、污染介质修复技术以及其替代品的研制都将是研究重点领域。     

Using expert knowledge to support Endangered Species Act decision-making for data-deficient species

Many questions relevant to conservation decision-making are characterized by extreme uncertainty due to lack of empirical data and complexity of the underlying ecologic processes, leading to a rapid increase in the use of structured protocols to elicit expert knowledge. Published ecologic applications often employ a modified Delphi method, where experts provide judgments anonymously and mathematical aggregation techniques are used to combine judgments. The Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) differs in its behavioral approach to synthesizing individual judgments into a fully specified probability distribution for an unknown quantity. We used the SHELF protocol remotely to assess extinction risk of three subterranean aquatic species that are being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We provided experts an empirical threat assessment for each known locality over a video conference and recorded judgments on the probability of population persistence over four generations with online submission forms and R-shiny apps available through the SHELF package. Despite large uncertainty for all populations, there were key differences between species’ risk of extirpation based on spatial variation in dominant threats, local land use and management practices, and species’ microhabitat. The resulting probability distributions provided decision makers with a full picture of uncertainty that was consistent with the probabilistic nature of risk assessments. Discussion among experts during SHELF's behavioral aggregation stage clearly documented dominant threats (e.g., development, timber harvest, animal agriculture, and cave visitation) and their interactions with local cave geology and species’ habitat. Our virtual implementation of the SHELF protocol demonstrated the flexibility of the approach for conservation applications operating on budgets and time lines that can limit in-person meetings of geographically dispersed experts.     

Development and application of a comprehensive ecological risk assessment indicator system in Xiamen,China

Urban ecological risk is one of the important factors that may restrict the social and economic development. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out a comprehensive assessment of ecological risks so that an ecological risk prevention and control plan can be scientifically formulated. In this paper, a comprehensive ecological risk assessment indicator system of Xiamen was established based on local ecological properties and socioeconomic status. This indicator system covers seven indicators including air pollution, soil pollution, water pollution, fresh water consumption, change in land use, occupation of key zones with ecological functions, and road network expansion. Based on this indicator system and in conjunction with the single factor assessment of ecological risks, this study constructed a model of comprehensive ecological risk assessment and forecasted the comprehensive ecological risk of Xiamen in 2020. The results showed that the comprehensive ecological risk level of Xiamen in 2020 is medium and the main stressors are the discharge of air and water pollutants. From the perspective of risk receptors, i.e. the ecosystem services, the risk posed to the ecosystem services associated to the maintenance of air quality and water purification is the highest. Therefore, this study proposed the recommendations on ecological risk prevention and regulation in Xiamen based on the comprehensive assessment of ecological risks, in the hope to provide scientific support for local ecological protection and sustainable development.