可持续发展实验区灾害风险定量估算方法研究

作者将探索性数据分析方法引入区域灾害风险的定量估算，系统地建立了区域灾害风险的定量估算方法。计算实例表明，文中给出的方法可便捷地用于可持续发展实验区灾害风险评估。     

The role of stand history in assessing forest impacts

Air pollution, harvesting practices, and natural disturbances can affect the growth of trees and forest development. To make predictions about anthropogenic impacts on forests, we need to understand how these factors affect tree growth. In this study the effect of disturbance history on tree growth and stand structure was examined by using a computer model of forest development. The model was run under the climatic conditions of east Tennessee, USA, and the results compared to stand structure and tree growth data from a yellow poplar-white oak forest. Basal area growth and forest biomass were more accurately projected when rough approximations of the thinning and fire history typical of the measured plots were included in the simulation model. Stand history can influence tree growth rates and forest structure and should be included in any attempt to assess forest impacts.     

酒泉地区城镇体系可持续发展构想

酒泉地区城镇类型较多，城镇体系中的许多关系需要统筹协调，本文侧重从城镇的规模和空间关系分析，城乡一体化和区一发展，基础产业和环境建设等三个角度，探讨了区域城市可持续发展问题。     

Cultural Relevance for Rural Community Development in China: A Case Study in Bai, Jingpo and Huyaodai Communities of Yunnan Province

A three-year study over the Bai, Jingpo and Huayaodai communities in Yunnan Province reveals that the community development is significantly influenced in various ways by such cultural factors as the concepts of development; concepts and traditions of inter-community relationships, consumption, mar- riage and gender; patterns of decision-making and production, resource and income allocation; as well as the role of information dissemination systems, religion and ritual. Based on the analysis over the interactive relevance between each factor and community development, some strategies and methods for dealing with such a cultural relevance in development projects are recommended.     

可持续发展中的清洁生产

传统工业生产方式在可持续发展背景下面临严峻挑战，清洁生产应而生，它是持续利用资源，减少工业污染，保护环境的根本措施，本文就清洁生产在中国示范推广所产生的经济，社会及环境效益进行了综合论述。     

Prospects for Reconciling the Conflict between Economic Growth and Biodiversity Conservation with Technological Progress

Abstract: The conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation is understood in portions of academia and sometimes acknowledged in political circles. Nevertheless, there is not a unified response. In political and policy circles, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is posited to solve the conflict between economic growth and environmental protection. In academia, however, the EKC has been deemed fallacious in macroeconomic scenarios and largely irrelevant to biodiversity. A more compelling response to the conflict is that it may be resolved with technological progress. Herein I review the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation in the absence of technological progress, explore the prospects for technological progress to reconcile that conflict, and provide linguistic suggestions for describing the relationships among economic growth, technological progress, and biodiversity conservation. The conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation is based on the first two laws of thermodynamics and principles of ecology such as trophic levels and competitive exclusion. In this biophysical context, the human economy grows at the competitive exclusion of nonhuman species in the aggregate. Reconciling the conflict via technological progress has not occurred and is infeasible because of the tight linkage between technological progress and economic growth at current levels of technology. Surplus production in existing economic sectors is required for conducting the research and development necessary for bringing new technologies to market. Technological regimes also reflect macroeconomic goals, and if the goal is economic growth, reconciliatory technologies are less likely to be developed. As the economy grows, the loss of biodiversity may be partly mitigated with end‐use innovation that increases technical efficiency, but this type of technological progress requires policies that are unlikely if the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation (and other aspects of environmental protection) is not acknowledged.     

南京市郊农业生态系统建设与发展

南京市处于长江流域下游，是我国重要的农业生产基地，也是全国经济发达地区之一。它既有近郊的蔬菜生产，又有远郊的粮食作物种植，农田生态类型与农、牧、副的复合生态类型多种多样，而且其生产潜力很大。本文对南京市郊生态系统的建设进行分析研究，并着重探讨生态系统建设模式及土地合理利用，为建立合理的南京市郊区农业生态系统提供依据。     

人口与经济发展对植被的影响研究

植被是陆地表面主要的覆盖物，也是许多地球系统过程的重要变量。人类活动对植被的影响在区域尺度上是显著的。以重庆市为例，使用滑动平均和SG滤波对SPOT/VGT NDVI时间序列数据进行了平滑处理，结合GDP和人口栅格化数据，从时间序列和空间相关场两个方面分析了植被与人类活动因子之间的时空相关性。结果表明，从1998到2005年，植被的分布和生长状况并没有随GDP和人口的持续增加而增加。在时间序列上，植被覆盖与GDP和人口之间总体上呈显著的负相关关系；在空间上，这种相关关系表现出了较强的异质性。空间相关场表明：较强的负相关主要发生在相对发达的主城区周围，反映了快速的经济发展和城市化使得植被面积和生产力降低；然而在偏远的山区，由于经济落后同时植被覆盖较少，出现了正相关。     

Quantification and valuation of ecosystem services in diverse production systems for informed decision-making

The empirical evidence of decline in ecosystem services (ES) over the last century has reinforced the call for ES quantification, monitoring and valuation. Usually, only provisioning ES are marketable and accounted for, whereas regulating, supporting and cultural ES are typically non-marketable and overlooked in connection with land-use or management decisions. The objective of this study was to quantify and value total ES (marketable and non-marketable) of diverse production systems and management intensities in Denmark to provide a basis for decisions based on economic values. The production systems were conventional wheat (Cwheat), a combined food and energy (CFE) production system and beech forest. Marketable (provisioning ES) and non-marketable ES (supporting, regulating and cultural) ES were quantified by dedicated on-site field measurements supplemented by literature data. The value of total ES was highest in CFE (US$ 3142 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) followed by Cwheat (US$ 2767 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and beech forest (US$ 2328 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). As the production system shifted from Cwheat - CFE–beech, the marketable ES share decreased from 88% to 75% in CFE and 55% in beech whereas the non-marketable ES share increased to 12%, 25% and 45% of total ES in Cwheat, CFE and beech respectively, demonstrating production system and management effects on ES values. Total ES valuation, disintegrated into marketable and non-marketable share is a potential way forward to value ES and ‘tune’ our production systems for enhanced ES provision. Such monetary valuation can be used by policy makers and land managers as a tool to assess ES value and monitor the sustained flow of ES. The application of ES-based valuation for land management can enhance ES provision for maintaining the productive capacity of the land without depending on the external fossil-based fertilizer and chemical input.