规划环评中公众参与有效性案例研究

针对规划环评的特点,通过秦皇岛经济技术开发区规划环评案例分析,就如何保证规划环境影响评价中公众参与有效性进行了探讨,提出了只有做到广泛的公众代表性、有效的公众参与形式、科学的问卷设计、合理的反馈意见处理,才能发挥公众参与在规划环境影响评价工作中的作用。     

CO2 capture and storage from a bioethanol plant: Carbon and energy footprint and economic assessment

Biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can lead to a net removal of atmospheric CO₂. This paper investigates environmental and economic performances of CCS retrofit applied to two mid-sized refineries producing ethanol from sugar beets. Located in the Region Centre France, each refinery has two major CO₂ sources: fermentation and cogeneration units. “carbon and energy footprint” (CEF) and “discounted cash flow” (DCF) analyses show that such a project could be a good opportunity for CCS early deployment. CCS retrofit on fermentation only with natural gas fired cogeneration improves CEF of ethanol production and consumption by 60% without increasing much the non renewable energy consumption. CCS retrofit on fermentation and natural gas fired cogeneration is even more appealing by decreasing of 115% CO₂ emissions, while increasing non renewable energy consumption by 40%. DCF shows that significant project rates of return can be achieved for such small sources if both a stringent carbon policy and direct subsidies corresponding to 25% of necessary investment are assumed. We also underlined that transport and storage cost dilution can be realistically achieved by clustering emissions from various plants located in the same area. On a single plant basis, increasing ethanol production can also produce strong economies of scale.     

Growth and pollution convergence: Theory and evidence

Stabilizing pollution levels in the long run is a pre-requisite for sustainable growth. We develop a neoclassical growth model with endogenous emission reduction predicting that, along optimal sustainable paths, pollution growth rates are (i) positively related to output growth (scale effect) and (ii) negatively related to emission levels (defensive effect). This dynamic law reduces to a convergence equation that is empirically tested for two major and regulated air pollutants – sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides – with a panel of 25 European countries spanning the years 1980–2005. Traditional parametric models are rejected by the data. More flexible regression techniques confirm the existence of both the scale and the defensive effect, supporting the model predictions.     

Population viability of the Siberian Tiger in a changing landscape: Going, going and gone?

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is a flagship species of the boreal forest ecosystem in northeastern China and Russia Far East. During the past century, the tiger population has declined sharply from more than 3000 to fewer than 600 individuals, and its habitat has become much smaller and greatly fragmented. Poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation have been widely recognized as the primary causes for the observed population decline. Using a population viability analysis tool (RAMAS/GIS), we simulated the effects of poaching, habitat degradation, habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation on the population dynamics and extinction risk of the Amur tiger, and then explored the relative effectiveness of three conservation strategies involving improving habitat quality and establishing movement corridors in China and Russia. A series of controlled simulation experiments were performed based on the current spatial distribution of habitat and field-observed vital rates. Our results showed that the Amur tiger population could be viable for the next 100 years if the current habitat area and quality were well-maintained, with poaching strictly prohibited of the tigers and their main prey species. Poaching and habitat degradation (mainly prey scarcity) had the largest negative impacts on the tiger population persistence. While the effect of habitat loss was also substantial, habitat fragmentation per se had less influence on the long-term fate of the tiger population. However, to sustain the subpopulations in both Russia and China would take much greater conservation efforts. The viability of the Chinese population of tigers would rely heavily on its connectivity with the largest patch on the other side of the border. Improving the habitat quality of small patches only or increasing habitat connectivity through movement corridors alone would not be enough to guarantee the long-term population persistence of the Amur tiger in both Russia and China. The only conservation strategy that allowed for long-term persistence of tigers in both countries required both the improvement of habitat quality and the establishment of a transnational reserve network. Our study provides new insights into the metapopulation dynamics and persistence of the Amur tiger, which should be useful in landscape and conservation planning for protecting the biggest cat species in the world.     

上海崇明东滩互花米草种子产量与活性对刈割的响应

有性繁殖与种子扩散是互花米草（Spartina alterniflora）侵入新生境的重要途径,抑制有性繁殖是有效控制互花米草进一步扩散与二次入侵的关键。文章研究了刈割对互花米草种子产量及其活性的影响,结果表明：四月（生长初期）1次刈割在一定程度上促进了互花米草的有性繁殖,其每穗种子数（481.3粒）、种子平均生活力（36.7%）与对照每穗种子数（425.5粒）和种子平均生活力（41.3%）间不存在显著差异,表现出超量补偿现象。四月和七月（扬花期）2次刈割与扬花期1次刈割能有效抑制互花米草的有性繁殖,其种子的生产量（每穗种子数分别为186.3和173.6粒）与活性（分别为18.0%和17.3%）较对照显著降低,表现出不足补偿现象。四月和七月2次刈割与七月扬花期1次刈割对互花米草有性繁殖的控制效果较好。在互花米草管理与控制实践中,扬花期刈割是有效控制互花米草有性繁殖与扩散的重要途径。     

基于胡焕庸线波动的长江经济带水资源环境承载力动态演变特征

基于水资源生态足迹模型,对长江经济带2010—2018年131个地区水资源生态足迹与生态承载力进行研究,并用GIS可视化揭示和探讨长江经济带水资源时空特征。研究发现： （1）胡焕庸线假说在长江经济带区域成立;（2）长江经济带人均水资源生态盈余状况在胡焕庸线以西区域最好,胡焕庸线与胡焕庸亚线之间次之,胡焕庸亚线以东最差;（3）长江经济带胡焕庸线以西区域人均水资源承载力均值、水资源承载力均值在三个区域中最大;（4）长江经济带各地区历年万元GDP生态足迹呈减小趋势,水资源利用率逐年提高;（5）长江经济带历年平均水资源负载指数呈上升趋势,水资源压力逐年上升。研究结果有助于长江经济带水资源综合管理,为水资源的调控及使用提供量化依据。     

炼化常减压装置挥发性有机物无组织源谱分析

以典型常减压装置中工艺管线无组织逸散VOCs为切入点,选取不同地域的多套常减压装置,参照美国EPA包袋法采样标准,并按照HJ 644-2013标准将气态样品转移到组合三吸附管内,利用气相色谱-质谱仪进行分析检测.结果表明,常减压装置无组织排放的VOCs共含116种物质,以烷烃类、烯烃类和醛酮类物质占主导,其中烷烃类物质占总排放的65%以上.在此基础上,对检出物质占比量进行量化分析,明确了常减压装置VOCs无组织排放因子以2-甲基丁烷、丁烯和苯等物质为主,并检出了微量的萘.相关结论可为炼化企业构建VOCs排放清单提供有力支撑,对于后续精细化管理炼化行业的VOCs排放具有指导意义.     

A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.     

The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings

We critically evaluate the empirical basis for the so-called resource curse and find that, despite the topic's popularity in economics and political science research, this apparent paradox may be a red herring. The most commonly used measure of “resource abundance” can be more usefully interpreted as a proxy for “resource dependence”—endogenous to underlying structural factors. In multiple estimations that combine resource abundance and dependence, institutional, and constitutional variables, we find that (i) resource abundance, constitutions, and institutions determine resource dependence, (ii) resource dependence does not affect growth, and (iii) resource abundance positively affects growth and institutional quality.     

NEATS: A Network Economics Approach to Trophic Systems

The main principle of the economic approach to a trophic system we propose here lies in assuming that there is a transfer of food along a path between a prey and a predator if, for the predator, the benefits are greater than costs of predation on this path. Conversely, if the costs exceed the benefits, there are no flows. This trade-off, considered all along the food chains of an ecosystem, together with ecological processes (assimilation, somatic maintenance) results in a model coupling mass balance equations (biological constraints) and complementarity principles (Walras’ law). Here is the core of the Network Economics Approach to Trophic Systems (NEATS).