Sensitivity Analyses of Spatial Population Viability Analysis Models for Species at Risk and Habitat Conservation Planning

Abstract:  Population viability analysis (PVA) is an effective framework for modeling species- and habitat-recovery efforts, but uncertainty in parameter estimates and model structure can lead to unreliable predictions. Integrating complex and often uncertain information into spatial PVA models requires that comprehensive sensitivity analyses be applied to explore the influence of spatial and nonspatial parameters on model predictions. We reviewed 87 analyses of spatial demographic PVA models of plants and animals to identify common approaches to sensitivity analysis in recent publications. In contrast to best practices recommended in the broader modeling community, sensitivity analyses of spatial PVAs were typically ad hoc, inconsistent, and difficult to compare. Most studies applied local approaches to sensitivity analyses, but few varied multiple parameters simultaneously. A lack of standards for sensitivity analysis and reporting in spatial PVAs has the potential to compromise the ability to learn collectively from PVA results, accurately interpret results in cases where model relationships include nonlinearities and interactions, prioritize monitoring and management actions, and ensure conservation-planning decisions are robust to uncertainties in spatial and nonspatial parameters. Our review underscores the need to develop tools for global sensitivity analysis and apply these to spatial PVA.     

RESEARCH: Land Use Characteristics and Water Quality: A Methodology for Valuing of Forested Buffers

In this study, water quality and basin characteristics data from different basins of the Fish River basin, Baldwin County, Alabama, were used to develop a valuation model. This valuation model is based on the effectiveness of “contributing zones” identified and delineated using methods described by Basnyat and others (Environmental Management]1999] 23(4):539–549). The “contributing zone” delineation model suggests that depending on soil permeability, soil moisture, depth to water table, slope, and vegetation, buffer widths varying from 16 m to 104 m must be maintained to assimilate or detain more than 90% of the nitrate passing through the buffers. The economic model suggests the value of retiring lands (to create the buffers) varies from $0 to $3067 per ha, depending on the types of crops currently grown. The total value of retiring all areas identified by the contributing zone model is $1,125,639 for the study area. This land value will then form the basis for estimates of the costs of land management options for improving (or maintaining) water quality throughout the study area.     

我国职业伤害经济损失研究

结合国情 ,在全面、系统地研究了我国工业企业职业伤害的经济损失的基础上 ,对需要明确的若干问题进行了阐述。主要内容有 :国内外职业伤害的经济损失研究现状 ;职业伤害的经济损失的调查、统计与分析技术 ;工伤事故的经济损失估算方法及其主要规律等。     

微囊藻毒素-RR对烟草细胞活力及营养生理的影响

采用0.1,1.0,10.0μg/mL的微囊藻毒素-RR(MC-RR)处理烟草BY-2悬浮细胞,测定了细胞活力、细胞内蛋白质含量、可溶性糖含量、硝态氮含量及总磷含量,并且检测了酸性磷酸酶(ACP)的活力变化情况.结果表明,中、高浓度毒素处理细胞2d后,细胞活力及蛋白质含量与对照相比均显著下降.高浓度MC-RR处理降低了胞内可溶性糖的含量,暴露2d后仅为对照的45.57%;低浓度MC-RR处理在后期增加了胞内可溶性糖含量.高浓度毒素处理细胞4d后,细胞内硝态氮含量显著低于对照;中、低浓度毒素处理细胞7d后降低了胞内硝态氮含量.3组毒素处理均降低了胞内总磷含量,到实验结束时,低、中、高浓度处理组的胞内磷含量分别为对照的74.98%、76.47%和84.00%.3组处理组ACP活力与对照相比呈现先降低后升高的趋势.     

Effect of electrokinetic transport on the vulnerability of PAH-degrading bacteria in a model aquifer

There has been increasing interest in employing electro-bioremediation, a hybrid technology of bioremediation and electrokinetics, to overcome the low bioavailability of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOC) by homogenizing sorption-retarded HOC and immobilised microorganisms. Present electro-remediation approaches mainly aim at macroscale pollutant extraction and tend to neglect possible impacts of direct current (DC) on the physiology of microorganisms. The effect of weak electric fields (X = 1 V cm⁻¹) on the fitness of electrokinetically dispersed fluorene-degrading Sphingomonas sp. LB126 in bench-scale model aquifers was investigated by flow cytometry using propidium iodide (PI) as an indicator that distinguishes between PI-permeable (cells with porous membranes, i.e. dead or vulnerable) and PI-impermeable bacteria. After 15.5 h of DC treatment 56% of all cells recovered were dispersed at the centimetre scale relative to 29% in the absence of DC. There was no overall negative effect of the 15.5-h DC treatment on cell vulnerability, as 7.0% of the DC-treated bacteria exhibited PI-staining compared to 6.5% of the control population. Minor differences were observed in the subpopulation that had been mobilised by electroosmosis with an approximately twofold increase in the percentage of PI-stained cells relative to the control. Enhanced PI staining did not correlate with reduced culturability of the cells on rich-medium agar plates. Relative to the control, DC-treated cells mobilised by electroosmosis were threefold more culturable, confirming earlier data that that PI-cell membrane permeability does not always indicate reduced viability of oligotrophic environmental bacteria. Our findings suggest that electrokinetics is a valuable mechanism to transport viable and culturable polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-degrading bacteria in soil or sediments.     

Importance of Habitat Quality and Landscape Connectivity for the Persistence of Endangered Natterjack Toads

Abstract: The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is endangered in several parts of its distribution, including Belgium, where it occurs mainly in artificial habitats. We parameterized a general model for natterjack population viability analysis (PVA) and tested its sensitivity to changes in the values of basic parameters. Then we assessed the relative efficiency of various conservation measures in 2 situations: a small isolated population and a system of 4 populations connected by rare dispersal movements. We based the population viability analysis on a stage‐structured model of natterjack population dynamics. We parameterized the model in the RAMAS GIS platform with vital rates obtained from our own field experience and from published studies. Simulated natterjack populations were highly sensitive to habitat quality (particularly pond drying), to dispersal from surrounding local populations, and to a lesser extent to values of fecundity and survival of terrestrial stages. Population trajectories were nearly insensitive to initial abundances, carrying capacities, and the frequency of extreme climatic conditions. The simulations showed that in habitats with highly ephemeral ponds, where premetamorphosis mortality was high, natterjack populations nearly always had a very high extinction risk. We also illustrated how low dispersal rates (<1 dispersing individual/generation) efficiently rescued declining local populations. Such source‐sink dynamics demonstrate that the identification and management of source populations should be a high priority.     

Low-carbon transition of iron and steel industry in China: Carbon intensity, economic growth and policy intervention

As the biggest iron and steel producer in the world and one of the highest CO₂ emission sectors, China's iron and steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transition accompanied by remarkable technological progress and investment adjustment, in response to the macroeconomic climate and policy intervention. Many drivers of the CO₂ emissions of the iron and steel industry have been explored, but the relationships between CO₂ abatement, investment and technological expenditure, and their connections with the economic growth and governmental policies in China, have not been conjointly and empirically examined. We proposed a concise conceptual model and an econometric model to investigate this crucial question. The results of regression, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis indicated that technological expenditure can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions, and that investment expansion showed a negative impact on CO₂ emission reduction. It was also argued with empirical evidence that a good economic situation favored CO₂ abatement in China's iron and steel industry, while achieving CO₂ emission reduction in this industrial sector did not necessarily threaten economic growth. This shed light on the dispute over balancing emission cutting and economic growth. Regarding the policy aspects, the year 2000 was found to be an important turning point for policy evolution and the development of the iron and steel industry in China. The subsequent command and control policies had a significant, positive effect on CO₂ abatement.     

“十五”期间沈阳市经济发展与环境保护的相互促进分析

论述了沈阳市“十五”期间经济发展及能源消耗的变化趋势,在阐述城市建设对环境保护的促进作用及“十五”期间沈阳市环境质量变化趋势的基础上,对沈阳市经济发展与环境质量的相互促进进行了分析。     

自然经济限制性下天津市农村居民点整理潜力估算

农村居民点整理增加耕地潜力的测算既要考虑其自然适宜性,也要考虑其经济可行性。论文探讨了天津市农村居民点整理在自然、经济条件限制性下增加耕地的潜力。首先,选取了7个自然指标建立了农村居民点整理的自然适宜性评价指标体系,利用评价后的宜耕地比例作为自然限制性修正系数,将自然限制性修正系数与农村居民点整理理论潜力的乘积,作为自然限制性下农村居民点整理增加耕地的潜力。然后,选取了9个经济指标建立了农村居民点整理的经济可行性评价指标体系,利用其评价结果作为经济限制性修正系数,将经济限制性修正系数与自然限制性下增加耕地潜力的乘积作为自然、经济限制性下农村居民点整理增加耕地的潜力。测算结果表明,天津市各区县的自然限制性修正系数为0.393～0.954,经济限制性修正系数为0.242～0.813;在自然、经济限制性下,天津市各区县农村居民点整理增加耕地系数2010年为3.597%～14.812%,2020年为6.158%～15.902%;分别可净增加耕地面积64.893～2206.523hm₂、68.289～2274.096hm₂。     

鄱阳湖生态经济区经济与环境的协调性研究

对经济与环境协调性关系的分析是可持续发展的研究核心。文章根据鄱阳湖生态经济区经济和环境的发展状况,选取了7个经济指标和7个环境指标,采用主成分分析法及协调性发展指数评价方法,对2006-2010年鄱阳湖生态经济区的经济系统与环境系统的协调性进行了定量分析,通过研究提出需要进一步加大鄱阳湖生态经济区环境保护力度、加快发展循环经济和构建环境友好型产业体系等政策建议。