Understanding the global economic crisis: A biophysical perspective

The recent economic meltdown worldwide has reinforced our understanding of the effects of decoupling economic growth, monetary policy, and resources. Concern for peak oil and suggestions that it may have contributed to the global economic woes as well as over concern for the banking fraud may be adding confusion over the underlying causes and sending a misleading message to the public and ultimately to policy makers. Viewing the economy as simply a circulation of money that can be manipulated to increase spending and therefore consume our way out of the current economic situation, is courting disaster by deluding the public that the solution lies in simple adjustments to the current monetary system. Similarly, emphasizing that energy is the problem and that the solution can be found with another energy source is probably counterproductive in the short run and may be disastrous in the long run. The recent nuclear accident in Japan seriously calls into question increased dependence on nuclear energy and renewable energy sources, in the majority, have low net yields and are unevenly distributed worldwide.In this paper we frame the economic system as a subsystem of the larger more encompassing geobiosphere and suggest that within this context, neoclassical economics is unlikely to provide sufficient explanation of the recent economic melt-down. From a biophysical perspective, increasing the amount or speed of money circulation as well as extracting more energy from whatever source is available will only compound the problems and relying on growth as the solution to what ails the global economy is not a desirable nor a tenable solution.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR PROCESS INDICATORS TO MONITOR FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: PRACTICE TO AN URBAN WATER SYSTEM

Although very often used, the concept of sustainable development has not yet been perceived pragmatically. Due to its process nature, in this paper, we argue that sustainable development is a process in which the essential feedback loops, or Viability Loops as we name them, in the system in question are kept healthy and functional. This process deals with evolutionary changes with the end point not known in advance. According to this perception, measurement of sustainable development does not make sense. Rather, we should look for the process indicators to monitor systems for sustainable development. The purpose of the paper is to develop a methodology to deal with monitoring systems for sustainable development and its practice in an urban water system. Using a system dynamics approach, the paper adopts a systemic monitoring framework based on the idea of Viability Loops to define process indicators to monitor systems for sustainable development. To illustrate the application of the framework, its practice in the urban water system of Tehran, the capital of Iran, is provided as an example. The example of the urban water supply system of Tehran is given as a case study, albeit with some unavailable data. Here, four typical viability loops are discussed. The results of this application show that the flows of informative signals are lacking. Adopting the process indicators, we can see the gaps between the public perceptions of water abundance, the costs of water provision and energy utilizations, and what is going on in the reality are getting wider. That indicates that the viability loops are not functional enough to produce effective changes to offset the reinforcing mechanisms. The sustainable development of the system is impaired due to the persistence of those reinforcing mechanisms.     

Futures markets and economic efficiency: A theoretical perspective

This article examines the role of futures markets in schieving economic efficiency. The question is introduced in a timeless, certain framework, and extended to the case where time, but not uncertainty, becomes important: it is shown that in such a framework futures markets ensure economic efficiency. Uncertainty is then introduced, and it is shown that contingent markets ensure full efficiency, but that these are cumbersome; it is also shown that futures markets, as an alternative, ensure approximate efficiency. An appendix explores more formally the relation between markets and efficiency.     

Land cover change and abrupt environmental impacts on Javan volcanoes, Indonesia: a long-term perspective on recent events

Based on a presentation of the spectacularly abrupt environmental and societal processes occurring on Java since the 1990s, and using that as an analogue to compare their consequences with the known environmental history of the island, we unravel the relative contributions of natural and human impacts in shaping the environment of Java. Our work is based on remote sensing, Geographical Information System analysis, field-based observations and measurements of responses to abrupt land cover changes in the last 10 years. Ecological disturbance has been endemic to the long-term history of Java, but montane forests on volcanoes have since ca. 1990 become the last frontier of colonisation and are for the first time rapidly receding. We reveal how human disturbance of natural ecosystems, today as in the past, tends to be the greatest where resistance is the least. This appears true within the regional setting of Southeast Asia, where Javan forests since the last glaciation have constituted a biogeographical ecotone with a limited natural ability to regenerate after some imbalance. It is equally true at the scale of single events where humans will turn a natural disturbance to their own advantage. Overall, it remains difficult to deconvolve the signals of spontaneous human impacts and of localised natural events such as volcanic activity, El Niño-related forest fires or longer climatic anomalies because humans are opportunistic in their attitudes to natural variability and so the two are often inextricably linked. The clearest impact on land cover and land degradation comes from the history of state-organised deforestation, whether colonial or indigenous, because its impact has been systematic, pervasive and regionally consistent. Javan environments have shown astonishing signs of resilience under the abrupt, cumulative impacts that have been inflicted over the last four centuries in successive iterations, possibly because the high-energy tropical and volcanic environment is a system in which sediment turnover is naturally rapid and where past scars of land degradation either heal rapidly or are soon destroyed by younger events. However, the volcanoes are the island’s keystone reservoirs of water, sediment and biodiversity and command the geomorphic metabolism of the lowlands. By removing forests from increasingly crowded mountain slopes, Javanese society is following a trajectory in which new nonlinear responses to environmental hazards and change may limit our capacity to anticipate and contain environmental risk to human life and property.     

The State of Protected Forest Communities in the European Forest–Steppe Zone of Russia and Prospects for Their Reconstruction: A Case Study of Specially Protected Areas of Penza Oblast

The structure of most forest communities in the European forest–steppe, including protected areas, has been disturbed. The adverse consequences of these disturbances include the incomplete age structure of the populations of cenosis-forming species and the irreversibility of successions. The conservation of biodiversity in the structurally disturbed communities is impossible without human intervention, which must be aimed at restoring their age heterogeneity with regard to their specific ecological features.     

盘锦市发展生态农业循环经济模式探讨

循环经济在发达国家已取得成功经验.我国则更多地停留在概念层次上。新世纪之后解决农业面源污染,增加农民收入面临压力更大,原因是农业生产施用的农药、化肥太多,粮食、疏莱残毒超过国际卫生、环保标准。不能走出国门,欲想解决这一问题,发展农业循环经济模式、生产无害化食品,是保持生态环境、改变农村落后面貌必然的战略选择。     

城市生活垃圾的减量化管理经济效益分析

综合应用环境经济学、技术经济学、政策学的原理从管理费用和资源利用2个角度对垃圾减量化管理进行经济效益分析,并重新界定了垃圾减量化的内涵。提出以环境友好的方式利用自然资源和环境容量．实现经济活动的生态化转向。在城市生活垃圾处置中贯彻“减量化、再使用、再循环”为内容的行为原则．实现可持续发展所要求的环境与经济双赢。     

“最小存活种群”和“种群生存力分析”理论在生物多样性评价中的应用——以黔北20万吨/年竹浆林一体化工程中原料林基地建设工程为例

概述了“最小存活种群”和“种群生存力分析”概念、产生过程、研究内容及在生物多样性保护中的应用步骤,并运用该理论,以敏感种豹为关键种,分析了黔北新建20万吨/年竹浆林一体化工程中原料林基地建设工程对拟建项目区生物多样性的影响。分析结果表明,如原料林基地远离豹的栖息地,则栖息地面积尚可满足对豹短期保护（50代）的要求。因此,原料林基地的建设对绝大多数野生动物的影响不大,项目区的生物多样性是可以维持的。     

Synergisms between climate change mitigation and adaptation: an insurance perspective

As the world’s largest industry, the insurance sector is both an aggregator of the impacts of climate change and a market actor able to play a material role in decreasing the vulnerability of human and natural systems. This article reviews the implications of climate change for insurers and provides specific examples of insurance-relevant synergisms between adaptation and mitigation in the buildings and energy sectors, agriculture, forestry, and land use. Although insurance is far from a “silver bullet” in addressing climate change, it offers significant capacity and ability to understand, manage, and spread risks associated with weather-related events, more so today in industrialized countries but increasingly so in developing countries and economies in transition. Certain measures that integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation also bolster insurers’ solvency and profitability, thereby increasing their appeal. Promising strategies involve innovative products and systems for delivering insurance and the use of new technologies and practices that both reduce vulnerability to disaster-related losses and support sustainable development. However, climate change promises to erode the insurability of many risks, and insurance responses can be more reactive than proactive, resulting in compromised insurance affordability and/or availability. Public–private partnerships involving insurers and entities such as the international relief community offer considerable potential, but have not been adequately explored.

Economic-balance hybrid LCA extended with uncertainty analysis: case study of a laptop computer

The emergence of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) on the global stage as a design and policy tool increases the importance of assessing and managing uncertainty. This article develops and implements uncertainty methods for hybrid LCA. Hybrid LCA combines a bottom-up construction of the supply-chain based on facility-level data on material/energy use with a top-down economic input-output (EIO) model to account for processes for which direct data were unavailable. For the bottom-up part of the LCA, we account for variability in process and usage pattern data by developing parameter ranges. For the EIO side we develop a method to assess price uncertainty. These methods are explored through a case study examining energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of manufacturing and use of a laptop computer, a 2001 Dell Inspiron 2500. Results show that manufacturing the computer requires 3010-4340 MJ of primary energy, 52-67% less than the energy to make a desktop computer, and emits 227-270 kg CO₂. The manufacturing phase represents 62-70% of total primary energy of manufacturing and operation. This indicates, as for desktop computers, that mitigating manufacturing energy use, for example through extending lifespan, can be an important strategy to manage the life cycle energy of laptop computers. Results also indicate that truncation error from excluded processes in the bottom-up process model is significant, perhaps particularly so due to complex supply chains of information technology products.