论环境经济损益分析的方法

就建设项目环境影响评价中要进行的环境经济损益分析的目的、评价内容、评价方法等作系统介绍,以探讨国内在这方面的逐步规范化。     

大安市监测站在困境中求发展

在建立社会主义市场经济体制的新形势下，大安市环境站在业务经费严重短缺，监测技术落后，监测成本价格上涨等情况下，加强自身建设，在困境中求得了生存和发展，并取得了良好的环境效益和经济效益。     

Cost‐effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.     

Small Populations and Offspring Sex-Ratio Deviations in Eagles

Abstract:  Stochastic variation of sex ratio has long been appreciated as a potential factor driving small populations to extinction, but it is not the only source of sex-ratio bias in small populations. We examined whether some consequences of sex allocation could affect extinction risk in small populations of size-dimorphic birds such as eagles. We report variations in sex ratio at fledging from a long-term study of a declining population of Spanish Imperial Eagles ( Aquila adalberti ). Nestling sex-ratio deviation apparently was mediated by age of breeders, whereas territory quality had no obvious effect. Adult–adult pairs produced the same proportion of both sexes in high- or low-density situations, but pairs with at least one member in nonadult plumage class produced more males. As the population declined over a period of years, the proportion of breeders with immature plumage increased; consequently, the proportion of fledgling males increased. However, when population density was high, the proportion of breeders with immature plumage decreased and more female offspring were produced. This relationship between population density, composition of breeder age, and fledgling sex ratios allowed us to make predictions of extinction risk due to nonstochastic deviations of sex ratio in small, declining populations. In the study population, on the basis of the Vortex simulation results, an estimated reduction of 42.5% in predicted mean time to extinction was attributed solely to biased sex ratio.     

FDA-PI双色荧光法检测蓝藻细胞活性的研究

对FDA-PI双色荧光法检测水华鱼腥藻和铜绿微囊藻的活性进行了研究,用荧光显微镜对染色结果进行测定.结果表明,在蓝色光激发下(495nm),活细胞被双醋酸荧光素FDA染成亮绿色,死亡细胞被碘化丙锭PI染成红色.染色效率与原植体类型和细胞密度有关.对细胞密度为6×107—7×109个·l-1的铜绿微囊藻,FDA染色效率可达94%以上.对细胞密度为4×107—5×108个·l-1的水华鱼腥藻,FDA染色效率可达91%以上,但细胞密度增大到5×109个·l-1时,由于藻丝体易卷曲在一起,FDA染色率下降到67%.对死亡细胞,PI染色率基本都可达到100%.因此,用FDA-PI检测活细胞和死亡细胞混合的细胞悬液,可根据细胞所发出的不同荧光而判断细胞活性.     

The Yellow River in transition

Like many parts of the world, the Yellow River basin has problems associated with water scarcity, pollution, and flood risk. Analyses that focus only on the physical characteristics of these problems miss some of their most important social drivers. In this paper we identify some interlocking changes that have occurred as a consequence of economic reforms begun in China in 1978, and the implications of these changes for the Yellow River. The reforms have caused changes in the organisation of household production, increasing urbanisation and urban affluence, rapid industrialisation, and large scale spatial shifts in agricultural production. Rather than specific decisions it is these gradual changes that have affected the current status of the Yellow River and its basin. Our analysis suggests that at least some solutions to water problems in the Yellow River lie outside the basin, and beyond the realm of science or technology.     

The Sensitivity of Population Viability Analysis to Uncertainty about Habitat Requirements: Implications for the Management of the Endangered Southern Brown Bandicoot

Abstract:  Whenever population viability analysis (PVA) models are built to help guide decisions about the management of rare and threatened species, an important component of model building is the specification of a habitat model describing how a species is related to landscape or bioclimatic variables. Model-selection uncertainty may arise because there is often a great deal of ambiguity about which habitat model structure best approximates the true underlying biological processes. The standard approach to incorporate habitat models into PVA is to assume the best habitat model is correct, ignoring habitat-model uncertainty and alternative model structures that may lead to quantitatively different conclusions and management recommendations. Here we provide the first detailed examination of the influence of habitat-model uncertainty on the ranking of management scenarios from a PVA model. We evaluated and ranked 6 management scenarios for the endangered southern brown bandicoot ( Isoodon obesulus ) with PVA models, each derived from plausible competing habitat models developed with logistic regression. The ranking of management scenarios was sensitive to the choice of the habitat model used in PVA predictions. Our results demonstrate the need to incorporate methods into PVA that better account for model uncertainty and highlight the sensitivity of PVA to decisions made during model building. We recommend that researchers search for and consider a range of habitat models when undertaking model-based decision making and suggest that routine sensitivity analyses should be expanded to include an analysis of the impact of habitat-model uncertainty and assumptions.     

Predicting the economic and demographic impacts of long distance commuting in the resources sector: A Surat basin case study

Predicting the economic and demographic impacts of resource development on regional areas is difficult to assess because of limited availability of analysis, difficulties of predicting where workforce are likely to be based, and different impacts on communities because of variations in size and economic structures. In this study modelling has been employed to identify future employment and demographic impacts of future resource developments on communities in the Surat Basin in southern Queensland, Australia. The analysis summarises potential employment increases over multiple projects and uses multipliers from Input–Output models to assess likely impacts by local government area when future workforce might commute to or live locally in the region. The results demonstrate that recent moves to commuting workforces limit the economic impacts on local and regional communities in complex ways.     

川牛膝种子保存技术初探

对川牛膝种子开展室温常规贮藏、室温湿沙贮藏、室温超干燥贮藏、4℃低温贮藏、冷冻贮藏等5种贮藏试验,结果表明：①室温湿沙贮藏是川牛膝种子短期保存的最优方法,能显著提高种子发芽率,其值较常规保存高14.5％;其次为4℃低温贮藏.②冷冻贮藏是川牛膝种子长期保存的最佳方法,保存3年后当其他保存方式的种子寿命几乎丧失时,其生活力及发芽率仍保持在较高水平,分别为60.3％和49.9％;其次为超干燥贮藏,种子生活力和发芽率分别为51.3％和41.2％.     

Measurement of the scarcity of soil in agriculture

The paper defines the concept of land degradation and costs and effects of soil erosion. Through the concept of optimal levels of soil erosion, a conceptual model of the social costs of soil degradation is elaborated. The discussion focuses on the measurement aspects of the economic scarcity of soil in the agriculture sector. Reliable estimates of the true impacts of soil degradation can only be made if data on marginal damage costs and marginal conservation costs are available. The different scarcity indicators are evaluated and competitive land rental prices are considered as appropriate in indicating soil scarcity in agriculture.