Human Influence on the Spatial Structure of Threatened Pacific Salmon Metapopulations

Abstract: To remain viable, populations must be resilient to both natural and human‐caused environmental changes. We evaluated anthropogenic effects on spatial connections among populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) (designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act) in the lower Columbia and Willamette rivers. For several anthropogenic‐effects scenarios, we used graph theory to characterize the spatial relation among populations. We plotted variance in population size against connectivity among populations. In our scenarios, reduced habitat quality decreased the size of populations and hydropower dams on rivers led to the extirpation of several populations, both of which decreased connectivity. Operation of fish hatcheries increased connectivity among populations and led to patchy or panmictic populations. On the basis of our results, we believe recolonization of the upper Cowlitz River by fall and spring Chinook and winter steelhead would best restore metapopulation structure to near‐historical conditions. Extant populations that would best conserve connectivity would be those inhabiting the Molalla (spring Chinook), lower Cowlitz, or Clackamas (fall Chinook) rivers and the south Santiam (winter steelhead) and north fork Lewis rivers (summer steelhead). Populations in these rivers were putative sources; however, they were not always the most abundant or centrally located populations. This result would not have been obvious if we had not considered relations among populations in a metapopulation context. Our results suggest that dispersal rate strongly controls interactions among the populations that comprise salmon metapopulations. Thus, monitoring efforts could lead to understanding of the true rates at which wild and hatchery fish disperse. Our application of graph theory allowed us to visualize how metapopulation structure might respond to human activity. The method could be easily extended to evaluations of anthropogenic effects on other stream‐dwelling populations and communities and could help prioritize among competing conservation measures.     

Physical limits to resource access and utilisation and their economic implications in Mediterranean economies

This paper applies Ecological Footprint accounting to Mediterranean countries to track ecological asset balances and investigate the long-term feasibility of fulfilling natural resource and service needs. Our findings are that the Mediterranean region currently uses approximately 2.5 times more natural resources and ecological services than their ecosystems can provide. We argue that when consumption exceeds local availability, countries either resort to depletion of ecological assets or turn to international trade in order to satisfy their demands. Access to outside resources is however limited by (a) the availability of resources on international markets and (b) their affordability. Countries highly dependent on natural resource imports therefore expose their economies to the macroeconomic consequences of price volatility. We find that trade-related effects of natural resource price volatility are significant for Mediterranean economies as a 10% increase in the price of natural resources corresponds with a change in the trade balance between +7% and −2.4% of the GDP. We conclude that, in a world characterised by the existence of physical limits to the availability of global ecological assets, a systemic risk may exist for Mediterranean economies due to the concurrence of (1) ecological asset scarcity, (2) increasing prices and (3) challenging financial situations.     

Analysis of livelihood security: a case study in the Kali-Khola watershed of Nepal

This paper examines household livelihoods in highland and lowland communities of the Kali-Khola agricultural watershed in western Nepal on the basis of economic, ecological and social security indicators. Significant differences were found in soil fertility status, pests and diseases management, risk and uncertainties, use of agrochemicals and access to social services. No remarkable variations were found in crop diversification, annual agricultural income and food sufficiency. However, uncertainty and risk in agricultural production is relatively low in highland communities. The findings reveal that agriculture production alone is not a viable livelihood option for agricultural watershed communities in Nepal. The households growing crops with hired labour have relatively sustainable livelihoods in Nepal's agricultural watersheds. Insufficient agricultural land, insufficient working manpower within a family, and lack of access to ecological agricultural services are prime factors in being livelihood insecure in agricultural watershed communities. Therefore, long-term policies and plans need to be developed for the empowerment of local farmers and to support rural livelihoods with adaptable and flexible income-generating strategies, resilient resource management institutions and enhancement of knowledge, skills and social capital.     

Valuing nature-based recreation in public natural areas of the Apalachicola River region, Florida

As more people visit natural areas for tourism and recreation purposes, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the value they place on these natural resources. Specifically, tourists to Florida have been increasingly interested in visiting natural areas, forests, parks, and preserves-highlighting the importance of this new and growing phenomenon. We analyze visitors' demand for nature-based recreation in the Apalachicola River region of Florida using the travel cost method. The results from a count data regression model reveal that on average visitors would pay 74.18 dollars per visit-day for nature-based recreation resulting in a total economic value of 484.56 million dollars attributable to nature-based recreation in the Apalachicola River region. Results of this study provide useful information for natural resources management in the region and a rationale to preserve Florida's unique ecosystems.     

Info-Gap Decision Theory for Assessing the Management of Catchments for Timber Production and Urban Water Supply

While previous studies have examined how forest management is influenced by the risk of fire, they rely on probabilistic estimates of the occurrence and impacts of fire. However, nonprobabilistic approaches are required for assessing the importance of fire risk when data are poor but risks are appreciable. We explore impacts of fire risk on forest management using as a case study a water catchment in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) (southeastern Australia). In this forested area, urban water supply and timber yields from exotic plantations are potential joint but also competing land uses. Our analyses were stimulated by extensive wildfires in early 2003 that burned much of the existing exotic pine plantation estate in the water catchment and the resulting need to explore the relative economic benefits of revegetating the catchment with exotic plantations or native vegetation. The current mean fire interval in the ACT is approximately 40 years, making the establishment of a pine plantation economically marginal at a 4% discount rate. However, the relative impact on water yield of revegetation with native species and pines is very uncertain, as is the risk of fire under climate change. We use info-gap decision theory to account for these nonprobabilistic sources of uncertainty, demonstrating that the decision that is most robust to uncertainty is highly sensitive to the cost of native revegetation. If costs of native revegetation are sufficiently small, this option is more robust to uncertainty than revegetation with a commercial pine plantation.     

地震灾害经济损失估算与预测方法

本文通过对地震造成的社会环境物理破坏损失以及这种物理破坏导致的经济领域损失的分析，研究了直接经济损失预测方法，给出了地震人员死亡率和直接经济损失率的相关统计关系；并根据两种不同的经济分析模型，提出了地震灾害间接经济损失预测方法：经济计量模式和投入产出方法。     

灾害与经济增长关系的定量分析

本文以哈罗德－多马经济增长模型为基础，初步估计了灾害直接损失对经济增长率的影响。并由此导出了一个计算灾害间接经济损失的方法，为从宏观的角度分析灾害损失与经济增长的关系提供了一种思路。     

水土流失灾害防治与黄河经济开发

本文以大量资料和史实,论证了水土流失对工矿、交通、水利、农业等基础工业、基础设施和基础产业的危害;阐明了防治水土流失灾害,是治理黄河的根本,是经济建设的基础,对于黄河流域资源开发具有促进和保障作用。     

Urban development grant — an early assessment of regional implications

An examination of the Urban Development Grant during its first round of operation reveals that certain regions, particularly the West Midlands and London, are winning considerably more funding than others. A change in this trend is likely to require a reassessment, by the Government, of the targetting criteria presently used to direct the grant to areas of need.     

时空交互视角下淮海经济区城乡融合发展水平演化

以淮海经济区为研究对象,界定城乡融合内涵,并构建多维指标体系,测度城乡融合发展水平,并探索时空演化特征及驱动机理。（1）在空间集聚方面,淮海经济区城乡融合发展水平集聚较为明显,并且集聚性整体呈现增强趋势。（2）在时空联动方面,具有相对动态的局部空间结构和相对稳定的空间依赖方向,同时空间格局演化方面具有较强的整合性;城市自身因素对城乡融合发展水平空间结构的改变影响较大,受相邻城市城乡融合发展水平的溢出效应的影响较小。（3）要素驱动模式方面,低分位驱动和高分位驱动城市的城乡融合发展水平变化受经济发展—城镇化驱动,低分位制约类型城市的城乡融合发展水平变化受城镇就业—政府行为制约,高分位制约类型城市的城乡融合发展水平变化受产业—政府行为制约。