天津市基于新标准的空气质量预报模型效果评估

利用2015年环境空气质量监测数据,对天津市OPAQ空气质量统计预报模型预测效果进行验证评估。结果表明,模型对天津市AQI和PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_3、NO——2的预测结果与实测结果具有较好的趋势一致性,且预测时间越临近,拟合度越好,24 h预报的相关系数r全部达到0.8以上。对PM_(2.5)的预报性能明显优于PM_(10)、O_3和NO_2,PM_(2.5)平均值预测略呈正偏差,但重污染预测值偏低约15%;O_3和NO_2预测值呈明显负偏差,O_3峰值预测不足,NO_2预测值整体偏低,均以24 h预报趋势性最好,但负偏差最为突出。     

Probability of intellectual disability is associated with soil concentrations of arsenic and lead

Background

The association between metals in water and soil and adverse child neurologic outcomes has focused on the singular effect of lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), and arsenic (As). This study describes the complex association between soil concentrations of As combined with Pb and the probability of intellectual disability (ID) in children.

Methods

We used a retrospective cohort design with 3988 mother child pairs who were insured by Medicaid and lived during pregnancy and early childhood in South Carolina between 1/1/97 and 12/31/02. The children were followed until 6/1/08, using computerized service files, to identify the diagnosis of ID in medical records and verified by either school placement or disability service records. The soil was sampled using a uniform grid and analyzed for eight metals. The metal concentrations were interpolated using Bayesian Kriging to estimate concentration at individual residences.

Results

The probability of ID increased for increasing concentrations of As and Pb in the soil. The Odds Ratio for ID, for one unit change in As was 1.130 (95% confidence interval 1.048-1.218) for Pb was 1.002 (95% confidence interval 1.000-1.004). We identified effect modification for the infants based on their birth weight for gestational age status and only infants who were normal size for their gestational age had increased probability of ID based on the As and Pb soil concentrations (OR for As at normal weight for gestational age = 1.151 (95% CI: 1.061-1.249) and OR for Pb at normal for gestational age = 1.002 (95% CI: 1.002-1.004)). For normal weight for gestational age children when As = 22 mg kg⁻¹ and Pb = 200 mg kg⁻¹ the risk for ID was 11% and when As = 22 mg kg⁻¹and Pb = 400 mg kg⁻¹ the probability of ID was 65%.

Conclusion

The probability of ID is significantly associated with the interaction between Pb and As for normal weight for gestational age infants.     

Biomarker responsiveness in different tissues of caged Ruditapes philippinarum and its use within an integrated sediment quality assessment

Biomarkers comprising activities of biotransformation enzymes (ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase -EROD-, dibenzylfluorescein dealkylase -DBF-, glutathione S-transferase -GST), antioxidant enzymes (glutathione reductase -GR- and glutathione peroxidase -GPX), lipid peroxidation -LPO- and DNA strand breaks were analyzed in the clam Ruditapes philippinarum caged at Cádiz Bay, Santander Bay and Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (LPGC) Port (Spain). Sediments were characterized. Digestive gland was the most sensitive tissue to sediment contamination. In Cádiz Bay, changes in LPO regarding day 0 were related with metals. In LPGC Port, DBF, EROD, and GST activity responses suggested the presence of undetermined contaminants which might have led to DNA damage. In Santander Bay, PAHs were related with EROD activity, organic and metal contamination was found to be associated with GR and GST activities and DNA damage presented significant (p < 0.05) induction. R. philippinarum was sensitive to sediment contamination at biochemical level. Biomarkers allowed chemical exposure and sediment quality assessment.     

论效应空间与有偿减灾投入心理对策

本文提出了减灾效应空间问题,并分析了其在有偿减灾中的作用机制,以及与其有关的减灾投入心理与费用支付合理化问题。进而探讨了宣传、强制、分割、别类、约束、归并等促进有偿减灾良性发展的部分机理。     

战略导弹核武器系统人因工程应用研究

以战略导弹核武器系统的设计、生产、使用与维修为背景，分析了人为失误的定义、原因及分类，并根据模糊图理论，提出了一种评估人员可靠性的双向模糊图模型，并对人因工程学在战略导弹核武器系统的应用，提出了一些看法和建议。     

鄱阳湖典型湿地沉水植物的分布格局及其水环境影响因子

沉水植物是湖泊湿地生态系统中关键组分,调查研究沉水植物分布格局及其水环境影响因子,对于沉水植被的恢复与重建具有重要的指导意义。2013年5月初期分别对鄱阳湖典型湿地区域中有沉水植物的25个样地进行群落结构调查,采用系统取样方法对沉水植物进行调查采样并监测水环境因子,在野外调查的基础上运用GIS软件制作鄱阳湖典型区域沉水植物的生物量分布图,并采用主成分分析(PCA)和典范对应分析(CCA)方法分析其主要影响因子。结果表明:鄱阳湖湿地沉水植物以苦草(Vallisneria natans)为广布种,其中蚌湖及白沙湖以黑藻(Hydrilla verticillata)为优势种,白沙洲及乐安河龙口段以苦草为优势种,伴生种主要有金鱼藻(Ceratophyllum demersum)、马来眼子菜(Potamogeton malaianus)、菹草(P.crispus)、小茨藻(Najas minor)、大茨藻(N.marina)、刺苦草(V.spinulosa)和水车前(Ottelia alismoides)等。采用双向指示种分析法将研究区沉水植物分为6个群落;5月初大部分沉水植物尚处于生长季初期,生物量相对较低,仅菹草的生物量较大;沉水植物与浮叶植物共存现象明显。主成分分析(PCA)结果显示,第一主成分中水深、总磷和溶解氧等因子的系数值较大,第二主成分中pH值、化学需氧量和水体透明度等因子的系数值较大,是影响沉水植物分布的关键因子;典范对应分析(CCA)结果显示,水深、总磷和总氮对苦草和黑藻的影响显著,水体透明度是马来眼子菜的主要影响因子。     

Using the expert model PERPEST to translate measured and predicted pesticide exposure data into ecological risks

An important topic in the registration of pesticides and the interpretation of monitoring data is the estimation of the consequences of a certain concentration of a pesticide for the ecology of aquatic ecosystems. Solving these problems requires predictions of the expected response of the ecosystem to chemical stress. Up until now, a dominant approach to come up with such a prediction is the use of simulation models or safety factors. The disadvantage of the use of safety factors is a crude method that does not provide any insight into the concentration–response relationships at the ecosystem level. On the other hand, simulation models also have serious drawbacks like that they are often very complex, lack transparency, their implementation is expensive and there may be a compilation of errors, due to uncertainties in parameters and processes. In this paper, we present the expert model prediction of the ecological risks of pesticides (PERPEST) that overcomes these problems. It predicts the effects of a given concentration of a pesticide based on the outcome of already performed experiments using experimental ecosystems. This has the great advantage that the outcome is more realistic. The paper especially discusses how this model can be used to translate measured and predicted concentrations of pesticides into ecological risks, by taking data on measured and predicted concentrations of atrazine as an example. It is argued that this model can be of great use to evaluate the outcome of chemical monitoring programmes (e.g. performed in the light of the Water Framework Directive) and can even be used to evaluate the effects of mixtures.     

Z198型除尘器在生石灰硝化工程上的应用

对Z198型布袋除尘器的结构、工作原理等作了介绍,并分析了其在生石灰硝化工程中的应用情况及效果,同时指出了在使用过程中存在的问题。     

静电除尘在球团竖炉烟尘治理上的应用

介绍了球团竖炉烟尘治理的改造经验,总结了电除尘工程概况及效果。     

多管旋风除尘器热态除尘效率的影响因素

根据对多管旋风除法器热态除尘效率大量测试实践，讨论了影响多管风除尘器除尘效率的制造质量，整体安装要求、运行管理及锅炉运行等因素，建议在应用推广中应予以重视。