“十三五”时期我国环境保护国际合作的形势与挑战

对我国"十三五"时期环境保护国际合作形势进行了研判,分析了将面临的机遇和挑战,并提出了环境保护国际合作的对策和建议,以期为做好新时期的环境保护国际合作工作提供参考。     

内蒙古自治区环境绩效指数研究

构建了以目标渐近法、均权重法和环境绩效指数法等为一体的综合评价方法,对"十一五"期间内蒙古自治区环境绩效总体情况及其变化进行了研究。结果表明:内蒙古自治区的环境绩效指数呈逐年提升趋势,由60.14上升到73.43,年均增长率为5.1%;内蒙古自治区的二级环境绩效指数得分依次为:生态保护绩效环境治理绩效环境健康绩效资源可持续性利用绩效;内蒙古地区城镇绿化、农业与土地管理、环境治理绩效表现较好;环境绩效短板主要集中在水质、环境卫生、生物多样性、气候变化、能源利用、资源利用、污染控制等指标,表明内蒙古需要进一步加大环保投入、加快节能减排、改进资源利用效率,尽快实现绿色发展转型。     

危险废物无害化管理大数据分析应用研究初探

环境质量改善是我国"十三五"期间环保工作的核心,危险废物管理是影响环境质量的重要因素。近年来,我国危险废物污染防治工作在制度建设和能力建设等方面取得积极进展,但仍存在底数不清、减量不足、利用不畅等问题,频发的危险废物非法倾倒和掩埋已成为突发环境事件的重要诱因,严重威胁环境安全和人体健康。严峻的环境形势迫使我国改进传统的危险废物管理方式。文章从危险废物无害化管理现状分析入手,提出构建危险废物无害化管理大数据应用研究平台的建议,实现依靠数据管理、数据决策和预测性分析的构想。     

Employing pedestrian observations in engineering analysis

Simulation tools are often used to establish pedestrian and evacuee performance. The accuracy and reliability of such tools are dependent upon their ability to qualitatively and quantitatively capture the outcome of this performance; i.e. whether the simulated agents perform the expected acts and take the expected amount of time to complete them. This article investigates the relationship between simulating individual agent actions and generating reliable emergent conditions (e.g. congestion). Once this relationship is established for a particular tool, it can then be used to investigate the conditions that may emerge in certain scenarios and mitigate against them. This article presents a simple framework for categorising real-world observations and then translating these observations into the simulated environment - extracting key information from the data collected to configure the simulation tool as required. The article addresses the qualitative benefits of representing individual-level actions, and, to a lesser degree, the quantitative benefits, although this effort is limited given the nature of the data. It tests this relationship using observations made at the Hajj, specifically the Sa’ee where large numbers of pilgrims perform religious rites in concert. Several scenarios are simulated using the buildingEXODUS model, enabling the importance of individual-level behaviours upon emergent conditions to be investigated, even when simulating relatively large crowds of up to 15,000 people.     

中国区域创新效率及其影响因素

效率问题是中国科技创新过程中需重点关注的一个问题.本文以1998-2005年中国30个省份的研发面板数据为基础,以专利为创新的产出指标,R&D经费支出和R&D人员投入为创新的投入指标,应用随机前沿模型对各地区创新过程中的效率情况进行了实证测评,并就影响创新效率的环境因素进行了进一步探讨.主要的研究发现有:R&D经费支出和R&D人员投入对创新产出均有显著的正向影响,且R&D人员投入比R&D经费支出具有更高的产出弹性;劳动者素质对区域创新效率的提高有显著的正影响,而产业结构有显著的负影响,这可能与专利并不能全面反映高技术产业创新绩效有关;各地区的创新效率呈明显上升的趋势,且与地方经济发展结合越来越紧密;区域创新效率有收敛的趋势,后进地区的追赶效应明显.本文结论为国家及地方创新工程建设提供政策参考.     

How safe must a potential crewed launcher be demonstrated to be before it is crewed?

The US is entering into a new era in space. The Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) (Bush, 2004) announced by the US President has been fleshed out during the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) (ESAS Team Final Report, 2005) and work has been underway since then to develop a generation of launch vehicles to implement the preferred 1.5 launch architecture identified in the study. The 0.5 part of the launch set indicates the smaller Crew Launch Vehicle in the new set designated Ares I by NASA. The Ares I was selected by the team because analysis had shown that its complement of a solid first stage, with a liquid H₂/O₂ cryogenic second stage offered the best potential balance among cost, risk and performance. In particular the risk that this conceptual design would impose on the crew once matured was forecasted to be an order of magnitude better than the current matured crewed launcher set, the Soyuz and the Space Shuttle (Isakowitz, 2004). This forecast relied heavily on the experience of the heritage systems upon which the concept was based, specifically the heritage of the Shuttle solid rocket boosters and the experience with cryogenic upper stage engines from the Apollo and Shuttle era. Even with this strong heritage in play, it was recognized by the ESAS Risk Analysts that it would be necessary to mature the design with a set of test flights prior to placing the crew at risk. However the question was and is: “How many test flights are necessary before a crewed flight should be attempted?”This is the question that this paper addresses. That is, it is clear that the number of test flights is related to the desired safety level and that this, in turn, is related to what safety goal should be assigned to enable the crewed flight. Further, demonstration of goal achievement is again in turn related to how much of the heritage base can be captured in the new design. In the extreme, for a completely “new” design, the demonstration would be bounded by the requirements of the identical, repeatable experiments of classical probability theory (Mises, 1957). Even if the tens, or even hundreds of launches that this would require would be financially possible, tests of developmental systems are seldom, if ever, identical and repeatable because the design is modified to address the failure events observed. On the other hand, if the design was completely identical to the heritage then the heritage demonstrated reliability could be subsumed compared to the goal without further testing. This paper addresses the role of heritage in a developmental environment in the establishment of a minimum goal for the initiation of crewed missions and the testing required for its demonstration.     

如何降低水中VOC分析的检测限

环境中挥发性有机污染物（ＶＯＣ）的存在很复杂,随着ＶＯＣ治理的进步,环境水中ＶＯＣ浓度有不断降低的趋势,要求ＶＯＣ分析具有更低的检测限。通过对环境水前处理过程采用优化吹扫捕集条件来扩大试样量,选择高灵敏度的检测器以及降低前处理过程的空白值,提纯分析用水;优化ＶＯＣ色谱分离条件,确保色谱峰良好分离来降低试样和空白值的标准偏差的研究,表明可以有效降低水中ＶＯＣ分析方法的检测限。     

Testing the resistance of single- and multi-walled carbon nanotubes to chemothermal oxidation used to isolate soots from environmental samples

Quantification of natural and engineered carbon nanotubes (CNT) in the environment is urgently needed to study their occurrence and fate and to enable a proper risk assessment. Currently, such methods are lacking. Here, we tested the resistance of 15 structurally different CNTs to chemothermal oxidation at 375 °C (CTO-375), a method used to isolate soots from environmental samples. Depending on their structure, CNTs survived CTO-375 in proportions ranging from 26 to 93%. Standard addition of CNTs to soil and sediment yielded recoveries between 66 and 171%, demonstrating the capability of CTO-375 to isolate CNTs from complex environmental matrices. These data of pure and added CNTs correspond to recoveries obtained with “ordinary” soots under similar experimental conditions. Hence, soot fractions commonly isolated with CTO-375 from environmental matrices most probably encompass CNTs. Future work should attempt to enhance the method's selectivity, i.e., its capability to separate CNTs from other forms of soot.     

Integration of Satellite Imagery and Forest Inventory in Mapping Dominant and Associated Species at a Regional Scale

To achieve the overall objective of restoring natural environment and sustainable resource usability, each forest management practice effect needs to be predicted using a simulation model. Previous simulation efforts were typically confined to public land. Comprehensive forest management practices entail incorporating interactions between public and private land. To make inclusion of private land into management planning feasible at the regional scale, this study uses a new method of combining Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data with remotely sensed forest group data to retrieve detailed species composition and age information for the Missouri Ozark Highlands. Remote sensed forest group and land form data inferred from topography were integrated to produce distinct combinations (ecotypes). Forest types and size classes were assigned to ecotypes based on their proportions in the FIA data. Then tree species and tree age determined from FIA subplots stratified by forest type and size class were assigned to pixels for the entire study area. The resulting species composition map can improve simulation model performance in that it has spatially explicit and continuous information of dominant and associated species, and tree ages that are unavailable from either satellite imagery or forest inventory data. In addition, the resulting species map revealed that public land and private land in Ozark Highlands differ in species composition and stand size. Shortleaf pine is a co-dominant species in public land, whereas it becomes a minor species in private land. Public forest is older than private forest. Both public and private forests have deviated from historical forest condition in terms of species composition. Based on possible reasons causing the deviation discussed in this study, corresponding management avenues that can assist in restoring natural environment were recommended.     

A Comparison of Data Sets Varying in Spatial Accuracy Used to Predict the Occurrence of Wildlife-Vehicle Collisions

Wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVCs) pose a significant safety and conservation concern in areas where high-traffic roads are situated adjacent to wildlife habitat. Improving transportation safety, accurately planning highway mitigation, and identifying key habitat linkage areas may all depend on the quality of WVC data collection. Two common approaches to describe the location of WVCs are spatially accurate data derived from global positioning systems (GPS) or vehicle odometer measurements and less accurate road-marker data derived from reference points (e.g., mile-markers or landmarks) along the roadside. In addition, there are two common variable types used to predict WVC locations: (1) field-derived, site-specific measurements and (2) geographic information system (GIS)-derived information. It is unclear whether these different approaches produce similar results when attempting to identify and explain the location of WVCs. Our first objective was to determine and compare the spatial error found in road-marker data (in our case the closest mile-marker) and landmark-referenced data. Our second objective was to evaluate the performance of models explaining high- and low-probability WVC locations, using congruent, spatially accurate (<3-m) and road-marker (<800-m) response variables in combination with field- and GIS-derived explanatory variables. Our WVC data sets were comprised of ungulate collisions and were located along five major roads in the central Canadian Rocky Mountains. We found that spatial error (mean ± SD) was higher for WVC data referenced to nearby landmarks (516 ± 808 m) than for data referenced to the closest mile-marker data (401 ± 219 m). The top-performing model using the spatially accurate WVC locations contained all explanatory variable types, whereas GIS-derived variables were only influential in the best road-marker model and the spatially accurate reduced model. Our study showed that spatial error and sample size, using road-marker data for ungulate species, are important to consider for model output interpretation, which will impact the appropriate scale on which to apply modeling results. Using road-marker references <1.6 km or GPS-derived data locations may represent an optimal compromise between data acquisition costs and analytical performance. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.