Predictors of occupancy trend across spatial scale

Many explorations of extinction probability have had a global focus, yet it is unclear whether variables that explain the probability of extinction at large spatial extents are the same as those at small spatial extents. Thus, we used nearly annual presence-absence records for the most recent 40 years of a 110-year data set from Palenque, Mexico, an area with ongoing deforestation, to explore which of >200 species of birds have probabilities of extirpation that are likely to increase. We assessed associations between long-term trends in species presence (i.e., detection in a given year) and body size, geographic range size, diet, dependence on forest cover, taxonomy, and ecological specialization. Our response variable was the estimated slope of a weighted logistic regression for each species. We assessed the relative strength of each predictor by means of a model ranking scheme. Several variables associated with high extinction probability at global extents, such as large body size or small geographic range size, were not associated with occurrence of birds over time at our site. Body size was associated with species loss at Palenque, but occurrence trends of both very large and very small species, particularly the latter, have declined, or the species have been extirpated. We found no association between declining occurrence trend and geographic range size, yet decline correlated with whether a species depends on forest (mean occupancy trend =-0.0380, 0.0263, and 0.0186 for, respectively, species with high, intermediate, or low dependence on forest) and with complex combinations of diet and foraging strata (e.g., occurrence of canopy insectivores and terrestrial omnivores has increased, whereas occurrence of mid-level frugivores and terrestrial granivores has decreased). Our findings emphasize that analyses of local areas are necessary to explicate extirpation risk at various spatial extents.     

Evaluation of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on air quality in southern China from long-term historical observations

•Strong ENSO influence on AOD is found in southern China region. •Low AOD occurs in El Niño but high AOD occurs in La Niña events in southern China. •Angstrom exponent anomalies reveals the circulation pattern during each ENSO phase. •ENSO exerts large influence (70.5%) on annual variations of AOD during 2002–2020. •Change of anthropogenic emissions is the dominant driver for AOD trend (2002–2020). Previous studies demonstrated that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could modulate regional climate thus influencing air quality in the low-middle latitude regions like southern China. However, such influence has not been well evaluated at a long-term historical scale. To filling the gap, this study investigated two-decade (2002 to 2020) aerosol concentration and particle size in southern China during the whole dynamic development of ENSO phases. Results suggest strong positive correlations between aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ENSO phases, as low AOD occurred during El Niño while high AOD occurred during La Niña event. Such correlations are mainly attributed to the variation of atmospheric circulation and precipitation during corresponding ENSO phase. Analysis of the angstrom exponent (AE) anomalies further confirmed the circulation pattern, as negative AE anomalies is pronounced in El Niño indicating the enhanced transport of sea salt aerosols from the South China Sea, while the La Niña event exhibits positive AE anomalies which can be attributed to the enhanced import of northern fine anthropogenic aerosols. This study further quantified the AOD variation attributed to changes in ENSO phases and anthropogenic emissions. Results suggest that the long-term AOD variation from 2002 to 2020 in southern China is mostly driven (by 64.2%) by the change of anthropogenic emissions from 2002 to 2020. However, the ENSO presents dominant influence (70.5%) on year-to-year variations of AOD during 2002–2020, implying the importance of ENSO on varying aerosol concentration in a short-term period.     

金华旱涝趋势统计分析

根据对旱涝自身变化及其与太阳黑子活动，厄尔尼诺事件关系的分析，，得出了金华旱涝趋势的几点认识：（1）在未来的十几年之内，金华站将从涝年占优势的阶段转入旱年占优势的阶段；（2）在太阳黑子活动22年的磁周期转变年前后，金华站3年平均年降水量明显偏多；（3）在春季型厄尔尼诺事件的当年和夏季型厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年降水量偏多；（4）厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过5月1日，那么次年金华站年降水量偏多；（5）厄尔尼诺事件的强度越大，对金华站年降水量的影响也越大；（6）在太阳黑子活动22年磁周期转变年前后的厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年降水量明显偏多。这些认识对长期及超长期的旱涝趋势预测具有重要的现实意义。     

镍改性MCM-41介孔分子筛对水中甲基蓝的吸附

通过水热法合成介孔分子筛MCM-41,采用等体积浸渍法制备了Ni负载MCM-41分子筛吸附剂(Ni/MCM-41).小角X-射线粉末衍射(XRD)表征结果显示,Ni/MCM-41保持了纯硅MCM-41有序的介孔结构,并研究了Ni/MCM-41对水中甲基蓝的吸附去除性能,考察了投加量、反应时间、p H值、温度对水中甲基蓝去除率的影响,并从吸附等温线探讨了吸附机理.在优化条件下(25℃,20 mg投加量,6.32 p H,50 mg·L-1甲基蓝),反应120 min后,Ni/MCM-41对甲基蓝吸附量为36.85 mg·g-1,是MCM-41的7.1倍.研究表明吸附等温线符合Freuulich和Dubinin-Radushkevich模型,最大吸附量随着温度的升高而升高,吸附为吸热过程.通过Zeta电位分析认为,静电作用是甲基蓝吸附的主要机理.     

Multiple impact pathways of the 2015–2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya

The 2015–2016 El Niño had large impacts globally. The effects were not as great as anticipated in Kenya, however, leading some commentators to call it a ‘non-event’. Our study uses a novel combination of participatory Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis tools, and new and existing social and biophysical data, to analyse vulnerability to, and the multidimensional impacts of, the 2015–2016 El Niño episode in southern coastal Kenya. Using a social-ecological systems lens and a unique dataset, our study reveals impacts overlooked by conventional analysis. We show how El Niño stressors interact with and amplify existing vulnerabilities to differentially impact local ecosystems and people. The policy significance of this finding is that the development of specific national capacities to deal with El Niño events is insufficient; it will be necessary to also address local vulnerabilities to everyday and recurrent stressors and shocks to build resilience to the effects of El Niño and other extremes in climate and weather.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01321-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

利用小麦三叶期毒害效应指标表征成熟期籽实产量Ni毒害的探讨

为探明小麦三叶期幼苗和成熟期籽实产量的Ni毒害效应及其相互关系,实现小麦作物Ni毒害的早期诊断,以春小麦"冀张春3号"为材料,采用盆栽试验方法,研究了外源Ni对小麦三叶期幼苗生长发育和成熟期籽实产量的影响,并对小麦三叶期和成熟期的生理指标进行相关分析.结果表明,外源Ni投加量100 mg·kg~(-1),茎叶干质量和籽实产量无明显下降(p0.05),茎叶中可溶性糖含量(p0.05)和硝酸盐含量(p0.01)增加,茎叶干鲜比值增加;Ni投加量≥100 mg·kg~(-1),茎叶干质量、可溶性糖、硝酸盐含量和成熟期籽实产量均明显下降(p0.05或p0.01),茎叶中淀粉和抗坏血酸含量明显增加(p0.05或p0.01),茎叶干鲜比值下降.土壤中各形态Ni与小麦三叶期幼苗中Ni呈显著正相关(p0.01),土壤和幼苗中Ni与茎叶干质量、可溶性糖和籽实产量均呈显著负相关(p0.05或p0.01),表明小麦三叶期幼苗毒害和成熟期籽实产量下降是由作物体内Ni毒害造成的且无观察效应浓度(NOEC)一致;同时试验观察到小麦三叶期幼苗茎叶干质量、可溶性糖和硝酸盐含量变化与成熟期籽实产量呈显著正相关关系(p0.05或p0.01),表明利用小麦三叶期幼苗Ni毒害效应指标表征成熟期籽实产量Ni毒害是可行的.试验确定外源Ni对小麦成熟期籽实产量的无观察效应浓度为:土壤全Ni含量为139.08 mg·kg~(-1),土壤有效态Ni(DTPA提取)含量为21.59 mg·kg~(-1),小麦茎叶Ni含量为15.37 mg·kg~(-1),小麦根系Ni含量为361.78 mg·kg~(-1).     

原位生成Ni颗粒增韧纳米ZrB2基陶瓷的制备方法与微观结构研究

目的提高Zr B2基防热陶瓷材料的韧性,以满足其高抗热冲击性能的需求。方法采用沉淀-共沉积法在纳米Zr B2粉体中原位生成Ni颗粒作为增韧相,经放电等离子烧结后获得分布均匀的Ni-Zr B2纳米复合材料,通过三点弯曲实验、断裂韧性实验以及硬度测试,分别评价不同Ni含量对Ni-Zr B2纳米复合材料力学性能的影响,并通过SEM,XRD对材料微观组织进行分析。结果 Ni颗粒的引入,可有效提高Zr B2的相对密度,增加韧性,同时强度和硬度有所提高。通过不同Ni含量的对比发现,Zr B2-15%Ni力学性能最优,断裂韧性达到7.8±0.3 MPa·m1/2,相对于原始Zr B2材料提升1倍。从微观组织的电子扫描照片也可以看出,Ni颗粒在Zr B2表面均匀分布,断口表现为穿晶断裂和延晶断裂的复合断裂模式,不同于原始Zr B2材料的穿晶断裂。这也是断裂韧性显著提升的主要原因。结论原位生成Ni颗粒的引入,可有效提高Zr B2材料相对密度、强度、硬度以及断裂韧性。对比不同Ni含量的力学性能,Zr B2-15%Ni组分的力学性能最优,这一方法可有效提高Zr B2材料的断裂韧性,进一步满足其高抗热冲击性能的需求。     

Current Near‐to‐Nature Forest Management Effects on Functional Trait Composition of Saproxylic Beetles in Beech Forests

With the aim of wood production with negligible negative effects on biodiversity and ecosystem processes, a silvicultural practice of selective logging with natural regeneration has been implemented in European beech forests (Fagus sylvatica) during the last decades. Despite this near‐to‐nature strategy, species richness of various taxa is lower in these forests than in unmanaged forests. To develop guidelines to minimize the fundamental weaknesses in the current practice, we linked functional traits of saproxylic beetle species to ecosystem characteristics. We used continental‐scale data from 8 European countries and regional‐scale data from a large forest in southern Germany and forest‐stand variables that represented a gradient of intensity of forest use to evaluate the effect of current near‐to‐nature management strategies on the functional diversity of saproxylic beetles. Forest‐stand variables did not have a statistically significant effect on overall functional diversity, but they did significantly affect community mean and diversity of single functional traits. As the amount of dead wood increased the composition of assemblages shifted toward dominance of larger species and species preferring dead wood of large diameter and in advanced stages of decay. The mean amount of dead wood across plots in which most species occurred was from 20 to 60 m³/ha. Species occurring in plots with mean dead wood >60 m³/ha were consistently those inhabiting dead wood of large diameter and in advanced stages of decay. On the basis of our results, to make current wood‐production practices in beech forests throughout Europe more conservation oriented (i.e., promoting biodiversity and ecosystem functioning), we recommend increasing the amount of dead wood to >20 m³/ha; not removing dead wood of large diameter (50 cm) and allowing more dead wood in advanced stages of decomposition to develop; and designating strict forest reserves, with their exceptionally high amounts of dead wood, that would serve as refuges for and sources of saproxylic habitat specialists. Efectos Actuales del Manejo Casi Natural de Bosques sobre la Composición de Atributos Funcionales de Escarabajos Saproxílicos en Bosques de Haya     

Use of Population Viability Analysis to Evaluate CITES Trade‐Management Options for Threatened Marine Fishes

Abstract: Achieving multiple conservation objectives can be challenging, particularly under high uncertainty. Having agreed to limit seahorse (Hippocampus) exports to sustainable levels, signatories to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) were offered the option of a single 10‐cm minimum size limit (MSL) as an interim management measure for all Hippocampus species (≥34). Although diverse stakeholders supported the recommended MSL, its biological and socioeconomic implications were not assessed quantitatively. We combined population viability analysis, model sensitivity analysis, and economic information to evaluate the trade‐off between conservation threat to and long‐term cumulative income from these exploited marine fishes of high conservation concern. We used the European long‐snouted seahorse (Hippocampus guttulatus) as a representative species to compare the performance of MSLs set at alternative biological reference points. Our sensitivity analyses showed that in most of our scenarios, setting the MSL just above size at maturity (9.7 cm in H. guttulatus) would not prevent exploited populations from becoming listed as vulnerable. By contrast, the relative risk of decline and extinction were almost halved—at a cost of only a 5.6% reduction in long‐term catches—by increasing the MSL to the size reached after at least one full reproductive season. On the basis of our analysis, a precautionary increase in the MSL could be compatible with sustaining fishers' livelihoods and international trade. Such management tactics that aid species conservation and have minimal effects on long term catch trends may help bolster the case for CITES trade management of other valuable marine fishes.     

Meta‐Analysis of the Effects of Human Disturbance on Seed Dispersal by Animals

Animal‐mediated seed dispersal is important for sustaining biological diversity in forest ecosystems, particularly in the tropics. Forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging modify forests in myriad ways and their effects on animal‐mediated seed dispersal have been examined in many case studies. However, the overall effects of different types of human disturbance on animal‐mediated seed dispersal are still unknown. We identified 35 articles that provided 83 comparisons of animal‐mediated seed dispersal between disturbed and undisturbed forests; all comparisons except one were conducted in tropical or subtropical ecosystems. We assessed the effects of forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging on seed dispersal of fleshy‐fruited tree species. We carried out a meta‐analysis to test whether forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging affected 3 components of animal‐mediated seed dispersal: frugivore visitation rate, number of seeds removed, and distance of seed dispersal. Forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging did not affect visitation rate and were marginally associated with a reduction in seed‐dispersal distance. Hunting and selective logging, but not fragmentation, were associated with a large reduction in the number of seeds removed. Fewer seeds of large‐seeded than of small‐seeded tree species were removed in hunted or selectively logged forests. A plausible explanation for the consistently negative effects of hunting and selective logging on large‐seeded plant species is that large frugivores, as the predominant seed dispersers for large‐seeded plant species, are the first animals to be extirpated from hunted or logged forests. The reduction in forest area after fragmentation appeared to have weaker effects on frugivore communities and animal‐mediated seed dispersal than hunting and selective logging. The differential effects of hunting and selective logging on large‐ and small‐seeded tree species underpinned case studies that showed disrupted plant‐frugivore interactions could trigger a homogenization of seed traits in tree communities in hunted or logged tropical forests. Meta Análisis de los Efectos de la Perturbación Humana sobre la Dispersión de Semillas por Animales