碳减排问题刍议

全球气候变化对人类的生存和发展造成的负面影响已是一个不争的事实。将减少碳排放量融入可持续发展已成为全世界的共识。文章主要从宏观的角度,通过追溯国际碳减排任务的确定、减排发展机制产生的历史背景和我国碳排放现状及趋势分析,论述了国际碳减排方式对我国的机遇和挑战。     

The oxycoal process with cryogenic oxygen supply

Due to its large reserves, coal is expected to continue to play an important role in the future. However, specific and absolute CO₂ emissions are among the highest when burning coal for power generation. Therefore, the capture of CO₂ from power plants may contribute significantly in reducing global CO₂ emissions. This review deals with the oxyfuel process, where pure oxygen is used for burning coal, resulting in a flue gas with high CO₂ concentrations. After further conditioning, the highly concentrated CO₂ is compressed and transported in the liquid state to, for example, geological storages. The enormous oxygen demand is generated in an air-separation unit by a cryogenic process, which is the only available state-of-the-art technology. The generation of oxygen and the purification and liquefaction of the CO₂-enriched flue gas consumes significant auxiliary power. Therefore, the overall net efficiency is expected to be lowered by 8 to 12 percentage points, corresponding to a 21 to 36% increase in fuel consumption. Oxygen combustion is associated with higher temperatures compared with conventional air combustion. Both the fuel properties as well as limitations of steam and metal temperatures of the various heat exchanger sections of the steam generator require a moderation of the temperatures during combustion and in the subsequent heat-transfer sections. This is done by means of flue gas recirculation. The interdependencies among fuel properties, the amount and the temperature of the recycled flue gas, and the resulting oxygen concentration in the combustion atmosphere are investigated. Expected effects of the modified flue gas composition in comparison with the air-fired case are studied theoretically and experimentally. The different atmosphere resulting from oxygen-fired combustion gives rise to various questions related to firing, in particular, with regard to the combustion mechanism, pollutant reduction, the risk of corrosion, and the properties of the fly ash or the deposits that form. In particular, detailed nitrogen and sulphur chemistry was investigated by combustion tests in a laboratory-scale facility. Oxidant staging, in order to reduce NO formation, turned out to work with similar effectiveness as for conventional air combustion. With regard to sulphur, a considerable increase in the SO₂ concentration was found, as expected. However, the H₂S concentration in the combustion atmosphere increased as well. Further results were achieved with a pilot-scale test facility, where acid dew points were measured and deposition probes were exposed to the combustion environment. Besides CO₂ and water vapour, the flue gas contains impurities like sulphur species, nitrogen oxides, argon, nitrogen, and oxygen. The CO₂ liquefaction is strongly affected by these impurities in terms of the auxiliary power requirement and the CO₂ capture rate. Furthermore, the impurity of the liquefied CO₂ is affected as well. Since the requirements on the liquid CO₂ with regard to geological storage or enhanced oil recovery are currently undefined, the effects of possible flue gas treatment and the design of the liquefaction plant are studied over a wide range.     

The interaction between emissions trading and renewable electricity support schemes. An overview of the literature

The public promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources coexists in many countries with the recent implementation of emissions trading schemes. As shown by several papers, this coexistence may lead to significant interactions between both instruments, in the form of synergies and conflicts. This paper provides an overview and analysis of the literature on such coexistence and interactions. A major conclusion is that policy measures aiming at exploiting the synergies between both instruments should be implemented. The greatest synergy effects from the use of both instruments take place through appropriate coordination of their targets. Another key finding is that, although some stylised facts can be inferred from the studies, some results from those complex interactions are context-specific since they depend on the design of the instruments in particular countries. In spite of the significant policy implications of such interactions for the effective and cost-effective functioning of both instruments, this is a surprisingly under searched field. It is so concerning, both, theoretical and empirical analysis.

山东省二氧化硫排放总量的预测模型

介绍了灰色理论之GM(2,1)模型的建模思想,并成功地应用于山东省SO_2排放总量的预测,其结果与实际情况一致性很好,表明GM(2,1)模型预测区域SO_2排放总量是可行的。      

Incentives and prices in an emissions trading scheme with updating

Emissions trading schemes where allocations are based on updated baseline emissions give firms less incentive to reduce emissions for a given quota (or allowance) price. Nevertheless, according to Böhringer and Lange [On the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances, Europ. Econ. Rev. 49 (2005) 2041–2055], such allocation schemes are cost-effective if the system is closed and allocation rules are identical across firms. In this paper, we show that the cost-effective solution may be infeasible if marginal abatement costs grow too fast. Moreover, if a price cap or banking/borrowing is introduced, the abatement profile is no longer the same as in the case with an auction (or lump-sum allocation). In addition, we show that with allocation based on updated emissions, the quota price will always exceed marginal abatement costs, possibly misguiding policy makers and investors about abatement costs. Numerical simulations indicate that the quota price most likely will be several times higher than marginal abatement costs, unless a significant share of allowances is auctioned.     

我国空气中挥发性有机物标准体系建设的对策和建议

介绍了挥发性有机物（VOCs）的界定与危害,以及美国、欧盟、日本 VOCs的排放标准、控制经验、效果、气体标准样品研究现状等。分析了我国 VOCs的污染、标准体系建设、标准样品等研究现状及存在的问题,提出我国应建立 VOCs筛选优控名单、制定并完善行业排放标准和监测方法体系,以及开展 VOCs气体标准样品研究等相关对策和建议。     

南京燃煤电厂烟气中汞的排放调查

对南京市8家国控污染源13台（套）燃煤锅炉进行监测,结果表明,燃煤电厂烟气中汞主要以气相部分汞形态存在,其排放值均达标,为0．16～15．9μg／m3,均远低于标准限值;煤质中汞含量与电厂烟气中汞浓度变化曲线的趋势是大致相似,相关系数为0．91;燃煤电厂机组容量、发电负荷越大,汞平均排放因子呈变小趋势;静电除尘器、湿法脱硫和选择性催化还原法的净化配置对汞的脱除效率最高,达到95．4％。     

基于MOVES的西安市出租车污染物排放分析

利用MOVES模型对2012年西安市出租车油改气后污染物排放因子进行模拟,得出污染物CO、NOx、PM2.5、PM10、HC的排放因子分别为3.488 1 g/km、0.370 0 g/km、0.004 7 g/km、0.005 1 g/km、0.095 2 g/km,计算得到5种污染物的年排放总量分别为4 830.76 t、512.42 t、6.51 t、7.06 t、131.85 t。将得到的数据与2010年相关数据比对,说明出租车油改气后污染物排放量在机动车总排放量中所占比例有所下降。     

The optimal pricing of pollution when enforcement is costly

We consider the pricing of a uniformly mixed pollutant with a model of optimal, possibly firm-specific, emissions taxes and their enforcement under incomplete information about firms’ abatement costs, enforcement costs, and pollution damage. We argue that optimality requires an enforcement strategy that induces full compliance by every firm, except possibly when a regulator can base the probabilities of detecting individual violations on observable correlates of violators’ actual emissions. Moreover, optimality requires discriminatory taxes, except when a regulator is unable to use observable firm-level characteristics to gain some information about the variation in firms’ abatement costs or monitoring costs.     

The sensitivity of modeled ozone to the temporal distribution of point, area, and mobile source emissions in the eastern United States

Ozone remains one of the most recalcitrant air pollution problems in the US. Hourly emissions fields used in air quality models (AQMs) generally show less temporal variability than corresponding measurements from continuous emissions monitors (CEM) and field campaigns would imply. If emissions control scenarios to reduce emissions at peak ozone forming hours are to be assessed with AQMs, the effect of emissions' daily variability on modeled ozone must be understood. We analyzed the effects of altering all anthropogenic emissions' temporal distributions by source group on 2002 summer-long simulations of ozone using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) v4.5 and the Carbon Bond IV (CBIV) chemical mechanism with 12 km resolution. We find that when mobile source emissions were made constant over the course of a day, 8-h maximum ozone predictions changed by ±7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in many urban areas on days when ozone concentrations greater than 80 ppbv were simulated in the base case. Increasing the temporal variation of point sources resulted in ozone changes of +6 and −6 ppbv, but only for small areas near sources. Changing the daily cycle of mobile source emissions produces substantial changes in simulated ozone, especially in urban areas at night; results suggest that shifting the emissions of NO_x from day to night, for example in electric powered vehicles recharged at night, could have beneficial impacts on air quality.