GREAT LAKES WATER RESOURCES: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS WITH TRANSIENT GCM SCENARIOS1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducted an assessment of Great Lakes water resources impacts under transient climate change scenarios. The integrated model linked empirical regional climate downscaling, hydrologic and hydraulic models, and water resource use sub-models. The water resource uses include hydropower, navigation, shoreline damages, and wetland area. The study is unique in that both steady-state 2°CO₂ and transient global circulation model (GCM) scenarios were used and compared to each other. The results are consistent with other impact studies in that high scatter in regional climate among the GCM scenarios lead to high uncertainty in impacts. Nevertheless, the transient scenarios show that in the near-term (approximately 20 years) significant changes could occur. This result only adds to the urgency of creating more flexible and robust management of water resources uses.     

飞灰颗粒物介导活性氧氧化损伤与金属离子浸取浓度的关系研究

本文利用脱氧核糖氧化法考察了飞灰颗粒物氧化能力与络合剂及盐酸浸取颗粒物上金属浓度的关系。结果表明,代表氧化损伤程度指标的脱氧核糖氧化物,通过硫代巴比妥酸似丙二醛加合物显色反应,其吸光度值与飞灰颗粒物被浸取剂盐酸及氨三乙酸作用后的金属离子铁、锌、镉、铅和锰的浓度显著相关。基于铁在自然环境中的高含量及在活性氧催化反应中的特殊性,本文认为二乙三氨五乙酸、乙二胺四乙酸及柠檬酸浸取液中的金属浓度不能很好地表     

城市生态环境质量调控能力设计--以北京市温榆河生物通道设计为例

以北京市温榆河生物通道设计为例,提出建设生态城市的关键是提高城市自身的环境质量调控能力,其设计应注重2个方面:①把以植物为主体的、具有合理异质性并达到一定面积的自然组分作为控制性组分,并保证其持久存在;②要保证"物种流"在城市景观内的顺畅流动。      

城市环境规划设计动向初探

城市中的环境问题日益严重 ,人们渴望着能有一个安静、优美、和谐的生活环境。对城市环境规划设计在城市老区、居住区、城市园林、城市商业环境、城市灯光环境等方面的发展动向进行了初步的探讨。     

Validating graph-based connectivity models with independent presence–absence and genetic data sets

Habitat connectivity is a key objective of current conservation policies and is commonly modeled by landscape graphs (i.e., sets of habitat patches [nodes] connected by potential dispersal paths [links]). These graphs are often built based on expert opinion or species distribution models (SDMs) and therefore lack empirical validation from data more closely reflecting functional connectivity. Accordingly, we tested whether landscape graphs reflect how habitat connectivity influences gene flow, which is one of the main ecoevolutionary processes. To that purpose, we modeled the habitat network of a forest bird (plumbeous warbler [Setophaga plumbea]) on Guadeloupe with graphs based on expert opinion, Jacobs’ specialization indices, and an SDM. We used genetic data (712 birds from 27 populations) to compute local genetic indices and pairwise genetic distances. Finally, we assessed the relationships between genetic distances or indices and cost distances or connectivity metrics with maximum-likelihood population-effects distance models and Spearman correlations between metrics. Overall, the landscape graphs reliably reflected the influence of connectivity on population genetic structure; validation R² was up to 0.30 and correlation coefficients were up to 0.71. Yet, the relationship among graph ecological relevance, data requirements, and construction and analysis methods was not straightforward because the graph based on the most complex construction method (species distribution modeling) sometimes had less ecological relevance than the others. Cross-validation methods and sensitivity analyzes allowed us to make the advantages and limitations of each construction method spatially explicit. We confirmed the relevance of landscape graphs for conservation modeling but recommend a case-specific consideration of the cost-effectiveness of their construction methods. We hope the replication of independent validation approaches across species and landscapes will strengthen the ecological relevance of connectivity models.     

聚酰胺微塑料对大肠杆菌和脱氮副球菌的毒性

微塑料对环境微生物的毒性尚不清楚.本研究通过生长曲线测试、活性氧(ROS)生成、无机氮转化效率和塑料添加剂检测,探究了聚酰胺(PA)微塑料对典型环境微生物—大肠杆菌和脱氮副球菌生长的影响.PA微塑料对大肠杆菌的毒性与其浓度呈正相关,高浓度PA(100mg·L-1)微塑料对大肠杆菌和脱氮副球菌的生长均产生了显著抑制,胞内...     

城市空气质量达标规划编制中的关键技术及其案例应用

本文结合重庆市空气质量限期达标规划编制案例,介绍了城市空气质量达标规划编制中的几个关键技术及其具体应用,包括本地化污染源排放清单编制、污染物来源解析、污染物排放形势预测与减排潜力分析以及大气环境容量核算等。本地化污染源排放清单是城市空气质量达标规划编制的基础,针对现有污染源制定科学合理的减排方案是达标规划的核心内容。分析不同区域的污染物组分浓度特征、污染源贡献以及未来污染排放形势预测,有助于识别出制约未来空气质量达标的关键因素及污染源。基于污染源减排潜力和污染传输矩阵制定的污染源减排方案更具合理性和可行性,应用空气质量模型估算大气环境容量可为规划目标可达性提供依据。     

ISAPEC中知识自动获取的设计与实现

剖析了利用人工神经网络实现大气污染总量控制规划智能决策支持系统（ＩＳＡＰＥＣ）中知识自动获取的必要性，论述了ＩＳＡＰＥＣ中知识的自动获取的设计与实现过程，并用一实例进行了验证。结果表明用人工神经网络实现知识的自动获取与知识的人工获取相比既具有更高的时间效率，又能保证更高的质量。     

基于我国物种毒性数据的多溴联苯醚预测无效应浓度分析

采用多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)对我国广泛分布生物物种的生态毒性数据,根据欧盟现有化学物质风险评价技术指导文件,对不同环境介质中PBDEs预测无效应浓度(PNEC)进行了推导。结果表明:我国淡水环境PBDEs(四溴、五溴、八溴)的PNEC水分别为50μg·L~(-1)、0.53μg·L~(-1)、0.017μg·L~(-1)。沉积物环境PBDEs(四溴、五溴、八溴和十溴)的PNEC沉积物分别为823.35 mg·kg~(-1)wt、1.55 mg·kg~(-1)dw、12.72 mg·kg~(-1)dw、38.41 mg·kg~(-1)dw。土壤环境PBDEs(四溴、五溴、八溴和十溴)的PNEC土壤分别为668.3mg·kg~(-1)wt、0.38 mg·kg~(-1)dw、147 mg·kg~(-1)dw、98 mg·kg~(-1)dw。次生毒性PBDEs(五溴、八溴和十溴)的PNEC经口分别为0.3~0.7 mg·kg~(-1)、0.56 mg·kg~(-1)、2 500 mg·kg~(-1)。该数值期为我国PBDEs的环境风险评价提供科学基础。     

南亚热带森林3层次物种多度之广义泊松分布模型

生物群落中物种多度分布(species abundance distribution)呈典型的倒J形,即其中存在许多稀有种、少量常见种.物种多度分布模型研究有助于解决森林生态恢复中的物种配置等实际问题.本研究考察了一种过分散(over-dispersion,或称超分布,即方差大于均值)的离散型分布,即具有λ和α两个参数...