A hierarchical Bayesian non-linear spatio-temporal model for the spread of invasive species with application to the Eurasian Collared-Dove

The spread of invasive species is a long studied subject that garners much interest in the ecological research community. Historically the phenomenon has been approached using a purely deterministic mathematical framework (usually involving differential equations of some form). These methods, while scientifically meaningful, are generally highly simplified and fail to account for uncertainty in the data and process, of which our knowledge could not possibly exist without error. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for population spread that accommodates data sources with errors, dependence structures between population dynamics parameters, and takes into account prior scientific understanding via non-linear relationships between model parameters and space-time response variables. We model the process (i.e., the bird population in this case) as a Poisson response with spatially varying diffusion coefficients as well as a logistic population growth term using a common reaction-diffusion equation that realistically mimics the ecological process. We focus the application on the ongoing invasion of the Eurasian Collared-Dove.     

Cost-Effective Suppression and Eradication of Invasive Predators

Abstract: Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget‐limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator–prey model based on a Lotka‐Volterra system to investigate the cost‐effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed‐number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed‐rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper‐trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower‐trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed‐number, and lower‐trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper‐trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper‐trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the “best” strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely.     

Effects of Detectability on Estimates of Geographic Range Size in Bignonieae

Abstract: Extinction risk has not been evaluated for 96% of all described plant species. Given that the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation proposes preliminary conservation assessments of all described plant species by 2010, herbarium specimens (i.e., primary occurrence data) are increasingly being used to infer threat components from estimates of geographic range size. Nevertheless, estimates of range size based on herbarium data may be inaccurate due to collection bias associated with interspecific variation in detectability. We used data on 377 species of Bignonieae to test the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between detectability and estimates of geographic range size derived from herbarium specimens. This relationship is expected if the proportion of the true geographic range size of a species that is documented by herbarium specimens is given by the product of the true geographic range size and the detectability of the species, assuming no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability. We developed 4 measures of detectability that can be estimated from herbarium data and examined the relationship between detectability and 2 types of estimates of geographic range size: area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. Our results from regressing estimates of extent of occurrence and area of occupancy on detectability across genera provided no support for this hypothesis. The same was true for regressions of estimated extent of occurrence on detectability across species within genera. Nevertheless, regressions of estimated area of occupancy on detectability across species within genera provided partial support for our hypothesis. We considered 3 possible explanations for this mixed outcome: violation of the assumption of no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability; the relationships between estimated geographic range size and detectability may be an artifact of a negative relationship between estimated area of occupancy and the sampling variance of detectability; detectability may have had 2 opposite effects on estimated species range sizes: one determines the proportion of the true range of a species documented by herbarium specimens and the other determines the distribution of true range size for the species actually observed with herbarium data. Our findings should help improve understanding of the potential biases incurred with the use of herbarium data.     

威海市区黑松林群落的物种多样性特征

用3个丰富度指数、2个多样性指数和3个均匀度指数对威海市区11个黑松林群落多样性进行研究,并用相关分析研究了这些指数间的关系,结果表明:(1)黑松混交林群落的丰富度和多样性均高于黑松纯林群落,但均匀度却无此规律;(2)生境最优的黑松+刺槐+麻栎林(位于仙姑顶的样地11)在11个样地中的物种多样性表现最好,丰富度、多样性和均匀度都最大.而生境最差的位于火炬大厦的黑松纯林(样地2)群落的丰富度和多样性指数都最小;(3)除样地2外,其余样地群落的草本层丰富度和多样性都最大,灌木层次之,乔木层最小,均匀度无此规律;(4)3个丰富度指数之间、2个多样性指数之间以及两个Pielou均匀度指数之间存在极显著的相关性,但Alatalo均匀度指数和其它7个指数之间相关性都不显著,同时对8个物种多样性指数进行比较后发现丰富度指数中Patrick指数(S)最优,而多样性指数中Shannon-Wiener(H)最优,均匀度指数中以H为基础计算出的Pielou(JH)指数最优.     

广州市南部拓展区大气环境保护规划

面向城市可持续发展的环境规划需要新的理念和原则作指导。生态优先作为指导生态城市建设的崭新理念和原则,要求城市环境规划应该以保护和完善城市生态功能为重点。结合广州市南部拓展区大气环境规划,探讨生态优先原则在城市大气环境规划中的应用。     

乙酸对硅酸聚合胶凝及形态分布的影响

要研究了硅酸在不同pH条件下,乙酸存在时的形态分布及转化特征．结果表明：当硅酸溶液中有乙酸存在时,硅酸的聚合胶凝时间将延长．从而证实了乙酸的存在,能有效地减缓硅酸溶液中聚硅酸的生长速度．     

天然水体腐殖质对双酚A光降解影响的研究

以中压汞灯模拟太阳光光源,研究了双酚A(BPA)在水体腐殖质中的光降解过程,探讨了不同来源的腐殖质、腐殖质浓度、BPA初始浓度、溶解氧等因素对BPA光解速率的影响,实验结果表明,BPA在纯水体系中直接光解很慢,但在腐殖质溶液中光解迅速,符合拟一级动力学反应,改变BPA初始浓度对BPA光解速率的影响不明显,增大溶解氧浓度会抑制BPA光解,通过活性氧分子探针鉴定了腐殖质吸收光辐射产生的羟基与单线态氧,利用GC-MS鉴定了双酚A在Nordic湖富里酸(NOFA)中的光敏化降解产物,推测出BPA敏化降解的可能历程为能量转移导致的直接光解、羟基加成和羟基氧化。     

黄土丘陵区“梯田退耕”生态重建规划方法——以燕沟流域为例

论文在阐述“梯田退耕”生态重建规划指导思想、内容、标准及宜遵循的基本原则的基础上,借助GIS空间分析技术,提出并探讨了针对黄土丘陵区中小尺度流域或行政村合理布建梯田和经济林果园地等的规划方法及技术流程,进而将其应用于燕沟流域,研究结果表明业已探讨的规划方法是可行的和实用的。按规划结果,燕沟流域至少需新修梯田295.06hm2、果园4.61hm2,使其基本农田达到359.23hm2、果园面积达到622.69hm2;森林覆盖率48.87%,林灌草植被覆盖率可达75%,坡地减沙效益在80%以上。农业发展预计每年可实现粮食总产1645.13t、苹果总产9340t以上,载畜量可达7500只羊单位。     

中美新化学物质管理制度的比较

简要叙述了中美两国新化学物质管理的基本情况,分别从管理原则、管理范围、管理具体要求、申报种类、评审程序、监督管理等方面重点论述了中美新化学物质管理制度的特点。通过借鉴美国新化学物质管理的优点及经验,提出了强化和完善中国新化学物质管理制度的对策。     

The Coachella Valley Multiple Species Habitat Conservation Plan: A Decade of Delays

This article describes the history of the Coachella Valley Multiple Species Habitat Conservation Plan (CVMSHCP), in the Riverside County region of Southern California. When this collaborative biodiversity conservation planning process began, in 1994, local participants and supporters had numerous factors working in their favor. Yet, as of April 2007, nearly 13 years had passed without an approved plan. This is a common problem. Many multiple species habitat conservation plans now take more than a decade to complete, and the long duration of these processes often results in negative consequences. The CVMSHCP process became bogged down—despite strong scientific input and many political advantages—due to problematic relationships between the Plan’s local supporters, its municipal signatory parties, and officials from the state and federal wildlife agencies, particularly the regional office of the US Fish and Wildlife Service. This case study demonstrates the crucial importance of institutional structures and relationships, process management, and timeliness in habitat conservation planning. We conclude by offering several related recommendations for future HCP processes.