Stepwise multiple regression method of greenhouse gas emission modeling in the energy sector in Poland

The energy sector in Poland is the source of 81% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Poland, among other European Union countries, occupies a leading position with regard to coal consumption. Polish energy sector actively participates in efforts to reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere, through a gradual decrease of the share of coal in the fuel mix and development of renewable energy sources. All evidence which completes the knowledge about issues related to GHG emissions is a valuable source of information. The article presents the results of modeling of GHG emissions which are generated by the energy sector in Poland. For a better understanding of the quantitative relationship between total consumption of primary energy and greenhouse gas emission, multiple stepwise regression model was applied. The modeling results of CO₂ emissions demonstrate a high relationship (0.97) with the hard coal consumption variable. Adjustment coefficient of the model to actual data is high and equal to 95%. The backward step regression model, in the case of CH₄ emission, indicated the presence of hard coal (0.66), peat and fuel wood (0.34), solid waste fuels, as well as other sources (− 0.64) as the most important variables. The adjusted coefficient is suitable and equals R² = 0.90. For N₂O emission modeling the obtained coefficient of determination is low and equal to 43%. A significant variable influencing the amount of N₂O emission is the peat and wood fuel consumption.     

Sustainable global energy supply based on lignocellulosic biomass from afforestation of degraded areas

An important aspect of present global energy scenarios is the assumption that the amount of biomass that can be grown on the available area is so limited that a scenario based on biomass as the major source of energy should be unrealistic. We have been investigating the question whether a Biomass Scenario may be realistic. We found that the global energy demand projected by the International Energy Agency in the Reference Scenario for the year 2030 could be provided sustainably and economically primarily from lignocellulosic biomass grown on areas which have been degraded by human activities in historical times. Moreover, other renewable energies will contribute to the energy mix. There would be no competition with increasing food demand for existing arable land. Afforestation of degraded areas and investment for energy and fuel usage of the biomass are not more expensive than investment in energy infrastructure necessary up to 2030 assumed in the fossil energy based Reference Scenario, probably much cheaper considering the additional advantages such as stopping the increase of and even slowly reducing the CO₂ content of the atmosphere, soil, and water conservation and desertification control. Most importantly, investment for a Biomass Scenario would be actually sustainable, in contrast to investment in energy-supply infrastructure of the Reference Scenario. Methods of afforestation of degraded areas, cultivation, and energetic usage of lignocellulosic biomass are available but have to be further improved. Afforestation can be started immediately, has an impact in some few years, and may be realized in some decades. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ensuring social acceptance of the energy transition. The German government’s ‘consensus management’ strategy

This study deals with the German Federal Government’s approach of ensuring public support for its ‘Energiewende’, the swift and complete transition to an energy system based on renewable sources. First, the government’s ‘consensus management’ strategy is described as consisting of four elements: the setup of stakeholder deliberation fora; the funding of organisations dedicated to the public promotion of the energy transition; public campaigns that appeal to people’s commitment and the support of research on energy technologies. The study then traces the need for a strong social mandate of the energy transition back to the scope of the regulatory challenge and the recently growing conflicts around implementation, to institutional constraints of a consensus democracy and to the narrative of ‘Energiewende’ as the ‘grand national task’.     

An integration of net imported emissions into climate change targets

There is an international divide between net emissions importers and net emissions exporters, with industrialised nations mainly falling into the former and emerging economies the latter. Integrating emissions transfers into climate policy, so as not to disadvantage export-intensive countries, has been suggested to increase participation in international emissions reduction commitments. Consumption-based scenarios are presented for the UK identifying the geographic and sectorial source of emissions to meet future consumer demands given the current international climate policy landscape. The analysis is applied to the UK yet the discussion is applicable to international climate policy; assigning national responsibility for global emissions reductions; and extending the mitigation potential for net importing countries. Two trajectories for UK consumption emissions are calculated in which (1) international reduction targets are consistent with those pledged today equating to four degrees of temperature rise and (2) international reduction targets achieve a two degree future. By 2050 it is estimated that UK consumption emissions are 40–260% greater than UK territorial emissions depending on the strength of global reduction measures, and assuming the UK meets its 80% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050 target. Cumulative emissions are presented alongside emissions trajectories, recognising that temperature rise is directly related to every tonne of carbon emitted. Whilst this paper argues that the current UK emissions targets underestimate the UK's contribution to global mitigation for two degrees, it shows how expanding the focus of policy towards consumption introduces new opportunities for reduction strategies at scale. The paper advocates the implementation of consumption-based emissions accounting which reveals underexploited policy interventions and increases the potential to break down barriers that exist between industrialised and emerging economies in international climate policy.     

Human appropriation of net primary production as determinant of avifauna diversity in Austria

The relationship between land-use induced changes in production ecology and avifauna diversity was analysed using a GIS land cover dataset on a 0.25 km × 0.25 km grid covering Austria's national territory. Considering only aboveground processes, the “human appropriation of net primary production” (HANPP = potential NPP − NPP_t), actual NPP (NPP_act), harvest (NPP_h) and NPP_t (= NPP_act − harvest) were recalculated based on existing datasets. Elevation as well as indicators of land cover heterogeneity and landscape heterogeneity were also considered. Correlation analyses were performed between these potential determinants of avifauna diversity and breeding bird species richness data as well as the percentage of endangered breeding birds included in the Austrian red list. Four spatial scales—0.25 km × 0.25 km, 1 km × 1 km, 4 km × 4 km and 16 × 16 km, were analysed. It was shown that breeding bird species richness was more strongly correlated with production ecological indicators and elevation than with heterogeneity indicators. A residual analysis in which the effect of elevation (a proxy for climate) on species richness and its potential determinants was removed confirmed the importance of the availability of trophic energy (NPP) for bird diversity patterns. The results support the species-energy hypothesis, thus confirming the notion that HANPP could be a useful pressure indicator for biodiversity loss.     

水生植物生物能在苏州市CO2减排中的作用

苏州市的CO2排放量在逐年上升,CO2减排工作任务艰巨。开发无污染的新能源替代化石燃料是CO2减排的一种思路。苏州作为一个江南水乡城市,水资源丰富,水生植物生长旺盛。主要探讨了水生植物(包括藻类和水葫芦)生物能在苏州市CO2减排中的作用。通过粗略估算,藻类和水葫芦产生的年生物能(折算为标准煤)1 200.35万t,大约占苏州年总能耗的四分之一,即可以减少大约四分之一的CO2排放。因此,水生植物生物能在苏州市CO2减排中具有重要的作用。     

广州地区能源结构与污染控制战略的思考

广州地区的能源结构以燃煤为主,针对广州的实际和未来的发展态势,为实现2000年全市二氧化硫排放总量控制在1994年的水平,就如何削减二氧化硫排放量提出其控制战略和防治措施,阐述了控制和削减二氧化硫基本政策要点总体方案思路。      

英汉对比与文化差异--浅谈跨文化交际中的语言差异引起的误译

文化差异会使得跨文化交际产生困难、误解和矛盾.对文化差异必要的了解在成功地进行跨文化交际中起到重要的作用.本文归纳分析了文化差异在语言使用中的表现及造成误解和误译的原因,提出了进行跨文化交际应具备的基础.     

氧化塘合理的设计与操作

氧化塘不但可以低费用的降解废水，而且可以提供有用的生物量，其关键是进行合理的设计、操作和去除污泥．本文综合国外的文献资料，提出合理的设计和操作方案，并且引用国外试验者开发的预测模型；同时提出操作过程加入适当的ＣａＣｌ２化学添加剂可以促进藻类生物量的絮凝，以保证出水的质量和提供可利用的生物量．