AHP-模糊综合评价方法的分析与研究

系统安全评价是保证生产系统安全生产的基础。笔者在简要分析层次分析 (AHP)与模糊综合评价两种方法的特点的基础上 ,结合这两种方法的优点 ,提出了多层次的AHP -模糊综合评价法 ,并应用于企业作实证分析。结果表明 :该方法具有这两种方法的优点 ,能够较好地保证评价结果的客观性。     

铁路运输经济预警系统的研究

铁路运输经济安全是国民经济安全的基础。建立综合运用现代科技手段的运输经济预警系统 ,对调控铁路运输和引导铁路运输业安全、健康发展十分重要。笔者将铁路作为国民经济的子系统 ,考虑国民经济对铁路的影响因素。在分析铁路运输经济的影响因素和景气预警指标的基础上 ,利用BP神经网络预测出下季度铁路运输经济预警指标的值 ,用景气信号监测模型对预测值进行分析并显示该季度的预警信号 ,直观地评价铁路运输经济的安全状态。运用铁路运输经济预警系统分析了 2 0 0 3年第一季度～ 2 0 0 4年第一季度 ,5个季度的景气信号 ,并对 2 0 0 4年第二季度的各项指标进行预测和景气分析 ,对系统进行了实用和考核 ,取得预期效果。     

室内安全生态学构建——室内安全生态学导论

根据现代室内日益严重的危害和安全问题 ,以及当今人类对安全健康的追求 ,依据科学学原理和学科建设原则 ,对“室内安全生态学”新兴学科进行了构建 ,笔者论述了构建“室内安全生态学”的原因和必要性 ,简单阐述了“室内安全生态学”的定义 ,讨论了“室内安全生态学”的主要研究内容、知识构成和骨干学科等问题     

职业安全卫生管理体系(OHSMS)第一讲 OHSMS的起源

职业安全卫生管理体系(简称OHSMS),是完善企业职业安全卫生管理,保证企业职业安全卫生绩效持续改进的科学管理模式。国家经贸委1999年10月发布了《职业安全卫生管理试行标准》后,如何实施和建立职业安全卫生管理体系受到社会和企业的普遍重视与关注。 本系列讲座主要论述：OHSMS的起源、发展与意义;OHSMS的基本概念与理论;OHSMS的基本内容、结构与要素;如何建立和实施OHSMS;如何通过OHSMS的评审和认证等。     

安全生产标准化的实施与效果

介绍了太原钢铁集团第二轧钢厂开展安全生产标准化工作的几点做法及经验。     

模糊综合评价在油库安全中的应用

运用模糊综合评判理论 ,对油库安全系统进行分析 ,综合考虑影响油库安全的各种因素 ,给出了一种新的油库安全评判方法。     

Development of a limit state approach for design against gas explosions

The design of topsides against explosions requires the definition of a design over-pressure, however, these values are often treated as deterministic and there is a wide variation within the industry in the treatment and interpretation of the loads.

This paper advocates the adoption of a number of limit state for explosion loading. Events of different magnitudes are differentiated on the basis of frequency and linked to appropriate degree of reliability thus avoiding disproportionate effects from minor events.

The two principal limit states considered are a limit state for all the safety critical systems for relatively high frequency events and a survival condition for low probability events. Parallels are drawn from other branches of engineering where extreme loads have to be designed for.     

Safety climate, attitudes and risk perception in Norsk Hydro

The aims of this paper are to test mental images of risk and to present some results of a survey of safety climate, employee attitudes, risk perception and behaviour among employees within the industrial company Norsk Hydro. Two mental images were tested. They are both based on the assumption that it is possible to make a distinction between cognitive and affective processes involved in risk perception. The first model was the ‘rationalistic’ approach, which assumes that the affective component of risk perception is influenced by cognitive judgements. The justification for the second model is found in Zajonc's [Zajonc, R.B., 1980. Feeling and thinking. Preferences need no inferences. American Psychologist 35 (2), 151–175] conclusion that emotions are precognitive. In this model, entitled the ‘mental imagery’ approach, emotion is seen as the driving force affecting cognition of risk and safety. Employees at 13 plants have answered a self-completion questionnaire. The plants belonged to the agricultural, aluminium, magnesium and petrochemical divisions within Norsk Hydro. A total of 731 respondents replied to the questionnaire. The mental imagery approach was somewhat better fitted to the data than a rationalistic approach. Safety climate and employee attitudes towards safety and accident prevention contributed significantly to the variance in employee occupational risk behaviour. Worry and the extent to which the employee felt safe/unsafe was the most important predictor for the cognitive judgement of risk. Acceptability of rule violations seemed to be the most important predictor of behaviour, probably because acceptability also affected how often the respondents took chances and broke safety rules.     

The impact of organizational climate on safety climate and individual behavior

Relatively little previous research has investigated the meechanisms by which safety climate affects safety behavior. The current study examined the effects of general organizational climate on safety climate and safety performance. As expected, general organizational climate exerted a significant impact on safety climate, and safety climate in turn was related to self-reports of compliance with safety regulations and procedures as well as participation in safety-related activities within the workplace. The effect of general organizational climate on safety performance was mediated by safety climate, while the effect of safety climate on safety performance was partially mediated by safety knowledge and motivation.     

安全科学与社会可持续发展

笔者介绍了安全科学的兴起和内涵 ;认为安全科学的定义应是保护人类安全健康的、促进社会可持续发展的、跨门类综合性的交叉科学 ;论述了安全生产是我国的一项基本国策及全国安全生产现状 ,说明了伤亡事故的严重性和重大损失对我国社会发展的负面影响。还对安全科学促进社会可持续发展提出了 1 0项建议 ,其中包括 2 1世纪初期 2 0年内的重大科技问题的攻关内容的建议 ,可供国家有关部门战略决策的参考。