Mitigation of CO2 Emissions from the EU-15 Building Stock. Beyond the EU Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (9 pp)

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Goal Scope and Background. The European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings which came into force 16 December 2002 will be implemented in the legislation of Member States by 4 January 2006. In addition to the aim of improving the overall energy efficiency of new buildings, large existing buildings will become a target for improvement, as soon as they undergo significant renovation. The building sector is responsible for about 40% of Europe's total end energy consumption and hence this Directive is an important step for the European Union in order that it should reach the level of saving required by the Kyoto Agreement. In this the EU is committed to reduce CO2 emissions relative to the base year of 1990 by 8 per cent, by 2010. But what will be the impact of the new Directive, how large could be the impacts of extending the obligation for energy efficiency retrofitting towards smaller buildings? Can improvement of the insulation offset or reduce the growing energy consumption from the increasing installation of cooling installations? EURIMA, the European Insulation Manufacturers Association and EuroACE, the European Alliance of Companies for Energy Efficiency in Buildings, asked Ecofys to address these questions.

Methods

The effect of the EPB Directive on the emissions associated with the heating energy consumption of the total EU 15 building stock has been examined in a model calculation, using the Built Environment Analysis Model (BEAM), which was developed by Ecofys to investigate energy saving measures in the building stock. The great complexity of the EU-15 building stock had to be simplified by examining five standard buildings with eight insulation standards, which are assigned to building age and renovation status. Furthermore, three climatic regions (cold, moderate, warm) were distinguished for the calculation of the heating energy demand. This gave a basic 210 building types for which the heating energy demand and CO2 emissions from heating were calculated according to the principles of the European Norm EN 832.

Results and Discussion

The model calculations demonstrates that the main contributor to the total heating related CO2 emissions of 725 Mt/a from the EU building stock in 2002 is the residential sector (77%) while the remaining 23% originates from non-residential buildings. In the residential sector, single-family houses represent the largest group responsible for 60% of the total CO2 emissions equivalent to 435 Mt/a.

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- The technical potential: If all retrofit measures in the scope of the Directive were realised immediately for the complete residential and non-residential building stock the overall CO2 emission savings would add up to 82 Mt/a. An additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 69 Mt/a would be created if the scope of the Directive was extended to cover retrofit measures in multi-family dwellings (200-1000m2) and non-residential buildings smaller than 1000m2 used floor space. In addition including the large group of single-family dwellings would lead to a potential for additional CO2 emission reductions compared to the Directive of 316 Mt/a.

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- Temporal mobilization of the potential: Calculations based on the building stock as it develops over time with average retrofit rates demonstrated that regulations introduced following the EPB Directive result in a CO2 emissions decrease of 34 Mt/a by the year 2010 compared to the business as usual scenario. Extending the scope of the EPB Directive to all residential buildings (including single and multi-family dwellings), the CO2 emission savings potential over the 'business as usual' scenario could be doubled to 69 Mt/a in the year 2010. This creates an additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 36 Mt/a.

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- Cooling demand: The analysis demonstrated that in warm climatic zones the cooling demand can be reduced drastically by a combination of lowering the internal heat loads and by improved insulation. With the reduction of the heat loads to a moderate level the cooling demand, e.g. of a terraced house located in Madrid, can be reduced by an additional 85% if the insulation level is improved appropriately.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings will have a significant impact on the CO2 emissions of the European building stock. The main saving potential lies in insulation of the existing building stock. Beyond this, CO2 emissions could, however, be greatly reduced if the scope of the Directive were to be extended to include retrofit of smaller buildings.

Recommendation and Perspective

The reductions should be seen in relation to the remaining gap of 190 Mt CO2 eq. per annum between the current emission levels of EU-15 and the target under the Kyoto-Protocol for the year 2010. The energy and industrial sector will probably contribute only a fraction of this reduction via the newly established EU emissions trading scheme and connected projects under the flexible mechanism. In addition, the traffic sector is likely to continue its growth path leading to a widening of the gap. Thus, there is likely to be considerable pressure on the EU building sector to contribute to the EU climate targets beyond what will be achieved by means of the current EPB Directive. Legislators on the EU and national level are therefore advised to take accelerated actions to tap the very significant emission reduction potentials available in the EU building stock.     

Poverty,environment and economic growth: exploring the links among three complex issues with specific focus on the Pakistan’s case

Eradicating poverty, reducing environmental degradation and achieving sustainable economic growth are some of the major macroeconomic goals of Pakistan. There are, however, serious interlinkages among these issues. The present paper investigates these linkages and the existing evidence for Pakistan and other countries. The aim of the paper is to examine and test some hypotheses and answer some questions regarding poverty-environment-nexus in Pakistan. The paper uses secondary data and information to probe into these linkages. The paper finds that poverty leads to environmental degradation is a common belief but it is not clearly supported by evidence. What is more strongly supported by evidence is the fact that environmental degradation hurts more the poor. There is a need of studies that deal with the social and environmental impacts of specific factors, and a need of a better understanding of institutional dynamics. More understanding on how levels and changes in poverty relate to changes in environmental quality is needed. There is a need to understand how the levels and rates of change vary with poverty. There is a need to know how and where the changes are taking place. More research is needed on the effects of changes in the population and the dynamics of institutional development. It has been showed that low income groups are the most affected when environmental degradation occur, but not enough information available in Pakistan on the mechanisms. There is a need of empirical studies regarding effect on poor relative to non-poor. More understanding on how poor people depend on, interact with and use their environment in rural and urban areas is needed. Ideally, in Pakistan, we would need to relate data gathered in an area with socio-economic data from the same area, answering this way to questions such as, to what extent are different income groups affected by resource degradation? And, by pollution? Finally, Pakistan should apply open minded and innovative policies in order to take advantage of the many existing opportunities. Some suggestions are eco-labeling schemes, organic practices, fair trade and so forth. Very little research has been conducted in developing countries, especially in Pakistan on the issues involving poverty, environment and development. The present study is an attempt in this regard. The results of the study are expected to assume pivotal importance for policy makers, academics and other researchers. It may help policy makers how to design policy to ensure poverty alleviation vis-à-vis environmental conservation. It may also help academicians to understand the complex poverty-environment-growth nexus. It will also open new avenues for further research in this area.     

环境与发展

本文论述了环境与发展的关系,并简要介绍了可持续发展的基本理论,在此基础上阐述了在中国如何实施可持续发展战略。     

Environmental policy indicators: A systems model

This article describes and tests a systems theory-based policy indicators model. The framework is used to examine propositions about linkages between states' ecological-spatial characteristics and subsequent selected solid waste management (SWM) -related environmental policies. It was hypothesized that state characteristics of: (1) population density (used as a garbage-per-land area index), (2) population convergence within urban areas, and (3) percent population change in the interval 1980–1985, could jointly explain state variation in both the number and the vigor of SWM policy outputs. Greater levels of spatial pressure were proposed to be related directly to more numerous, more convincing policies. Proposals are grounded in the literature of organizational search theory, crisis stimulation, and technological pressure. Results revealed that the sociospatial model in fact could explain a reasonable proportion of policy variation across states. However, not all hypotheses are supported. Population change shows an indirect, rather than the anticipated direct, relationship with policy output levels. In addition, when used in the model as a pollution intensity index, population density failed to contribute significantly to an explanation of differences in state SWM policy levels. The analysis raises questions about changes occurring over time in the nature and direction of linkages between sociospatial measures and policy responses. This study suggests that strengthening policy indicator models may require questioning key assumptions and theoretical bases, conducting longitudinal studies, and factoring in political, economic, and other policy environment forces.     

Reaching environmental decisions: Making subjective and objective judgments

Objective judgments, external to the judge, are compared with subjective, internal judgments. This analysis is made in the context of reaching regulatory decisions affecting the human environment. Examples given include evaluating the potential risk of industrial chemicals and comparing the potential effects of short- and long-term changes in land use. The analysis deals not with the decisions themselves, but rather with the kinds of questions that must be posed in orderto reach such decisions. Decision makers may spuriously distinguish objective from subjective types of judgment, though these are rarely wholly separate. Judges can hardly dispute about objective statements, if truly identical definitions are used. But subjective statements can reasonably be voted upon. Scientists, engineers, and economists represent logical or objective decision makers, tending to work in groups. Subjective thinkers include artists and performers, and others who often work alone. Moral and aesthetic aspects of questions, usually seen as intangible, are treated as if subjective. Financial decisions, usually viewed as tangible, are handled as objective problems. This mechanism for making decisions is well-established in environmental assessment. Though objective questions can be treated well in the monetary terms of cost-benefit analysis, subjective ones cannot. Mathematical and other variants are discussed in relation to the comparison of alternative types of tests.     

EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL WATER CONSERVATION EFFORTS IN EAST TENNESSEE1

ABSTRACT: The importance of water conservation was emphasized by a proposed National Water Policy which was established during the previous Carter Administration. This policy stressed water conservation on a national scale. Such a policy sought to apply one program to all water resources problems. Before implementation of this or another such policy, consideration must be given to those vast areas of the country which in reality do not have a shortage of water. One of these areas is the French-Broad River basin in Tennessee. This report was formulated in an effort to describe both the positive and negative effects of water policies which would bring about either a 10 percent or 30 percent reduction in water usage in this basically water rich area. The parameters used in the evaluation included selected economic, sociological, legal, and environmental impacts.     

Influence of Motivations for Seeking ISO 14001 Certification on Perceptions of EMS Effectiveness in China

This study examines the motivations of mainland Chinese facilities in seeking ISO 14001 certification and examines the linkages between these motivations and self-reports of the effectiveness of major environmental management system (EMS) components. In a sample of 128 facilities in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, the main drivers for certification were reported to be to ensure regulatory compliance, to enhance the firms reputation, and to improve environmental performance, in that order. Although motivation to achieve cost reductions were least emphasized, a broad range of motivations appears to be considered in the decision to seek certification to ISO 14001. Regression models linking these motivations to the EMS components suggests that internal motivations have an influence on most EMS components. One interesting exception to this, however, is that no significant relationship was observed between internal motivations and the promulgation of environmental objectives and targets. The relationships associated with external motivations for certification (i.e., those in response to customer and other stakeholder pressures) and EMS components, on the other hand, are weaker and tend to occur earlier in the process cycle. No significant relationships were found between motivations to reduce costs and perceptions of the effectiveness of EMS components. Overall, these findings suggest that ISO 14001, as currently being implemented in mainland China, may have a modestly useful role when used in combination with other policy mechanisms to move the Chinese economy toward more sustainable practices. It is asserted that the ISO standard could provide even greater benefits if Chinese registrars were more proactive in developing EMS in conjunction with even more rigorous third-party audits.Published online     

Monitoring the sustainability of Russia's energy development

This article presents an assessment of Russia's energy sector, its current state and planned future direction. The analysis of Russia's energy trends is based on a set of indicators for sustainable energy development (ISED), developed under the leadership of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The article discusses Russia's Energy Strategy to 2020, and outlines major developments and challenges of the country's energy system. Russia's energy priorities, captured in the Strategy to 2020, emphasize securing a stable and uninterrupted energy supply; reducing energy intensity and improving energy efficiency; developing the domestic energy resource base; reducing negative environmental impacts; and ensuring affordable energy for the poorer segments of the population. Energy needs and challenges are discussed in relation to the three aspects of sustainability as defined in Agenda 21: economic, social and environmental. Concerns are expressed regarding environmental repercussions of energy development, in particular since Russia's 1998 economic rebound. There are also concerns, despite the economic recovery, that anticipated increases in energy tariffs may exceed the affordability of poorer segments of the population.     

Culture and the environment in Italy

This essay evaluates the historical development and current background of human-environment relationships in Italy. The Italian landscape consists of very varied terrain, and periodically suffers from all kinds of natural hazard, especially earthquakes, landslides, floods, and accelerated soil erosion. Some measure of environmental conservation was achieved by the Etruscans and Romans, but the Classical period also marked the beginning of serious lowland waterlogging, malarial infestation, upland soil erosion, and deforestation, which all increased during the Middle Ages. From the Renaissance to the 18th century, there was a diffusion of planned landscapes and carefully managed estates; but by the 20th century, many rural areas could not support growing populations and much land was in need of improvement. Underdevelopment and latifundium agriculture increased the vulnerability to environmental hazards of the Mezzogiorno (Italian South), while the subsequent disappearance of the peasant culture seems not to have led to greatly improved conservation or land management. Poorly farmed or managed landscapes and poorly maintained historic towns have undergone some virtually irreversible degradation, especially with respect to landslides and earthquake damage. Elsewhere in Italy, unchecked urbanization, weak planning laws, and their inadequate enforcement have helped both to reduce environmental quality, by overdevelopment of valued landscapes, and to increase natural disaster vulnerability, by encouraging occupance of natural hazard zones. Although there are signs that the government is beginning to respond to the cumulative effect of environmental degradation, the measures are insufficient to reverse the overall trend toward decadence that characterizes human-land relationships in Italy.     

环境标准物质

介绍了环境标准物质在环境监测技术过程中的意义、分类、种类及技术进展动态，引述文献１７篇．