Adversarial safety analysis: borrowing the methods of security vulnerability assessments

INTRODUCTION: Safety and security share numerous attributes. The author, who heads the (Security) Vulnerability Assessment Team at Los Alamos National Laboratory, therefore argues that techniques used to optimize security might be useful for optimizing safety. OPTIMIZING SECURITY: There are three main ways to attempt to improve security-security surveys, risk assessment (or "design basis threat"), and vulnerability assessments. The latter is usually the most effective. SAFETY ANALOGS: Vulnerability assessment techniques used to improve security can be applied to safety analysis--even though safety is not ordinarily viewed as having malicious adversaries (other than hazards involving deliberate sabotage). Thinking like a malicious adversary can nevertheless have benefits in identifying safety vulnerabilities. SUGGESTIONS: The attributes of an effective safety vulnerability assessment are discussed, and recommendations are offered for how such an adversarial assessment might work. CONCLUSION: A safety vulnerability assessment can potentially provide new insights, a fresh and vivid perspective on safety hazards, and increased safety awareness.     

Assessment of contamination by heavy metals and petroleum hydrocarbons in sediments of Montevideo Harbour (Uruguay)

As part of the first environmental assessment within Montevideo Harbour, in summer and winter of 1998, sediments samples were collected at eight locations to determine the spatial distribution of anthropogenic pollutants. Muddy sediments with high organic matter content dominate the study area. Heavy metal levels indicated that sediments were highly polluted with Zn (overall mean: 312+/-102 microg g(-1) dry sediment), Pb (85+/-31), Cu (89+/-25), Cr (162+/-62), and Hg (0.63+/-0.3) and moderately with Ni (30+/-2) and Ag (1.2+/-0.4). Depending on location and season, aliphatic hydrocarbons reached from 21 to 120 microg g(-1), while the unresolved complex mixture represented up to 76% of the total aliphatic fraction. Total PAH concentrations ranged from 1.56 to 90.44 microg g(-1); except at one location, petroleum derivatives were identified as main local source. The results pointed out that almost all the harbour area presented some substances that can cause adverse biological effects, especially in the inner region where all metals are above PEL levels. Principal components analysis confirmed that the inner harbour region is most severely affected by the pollutants and it was possible to differentiate three regions according to their environmental quality.     

Health risk assessment of PCDD/F emissions from a hazardous and medical waste incinerator in Turkey

A multimedia risk assessment procedure was conducted to determine the fate and transport of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDD/F) emissions from the Izmit Hazardous and Medical Waste Incinerator (IZAYDAS) in Turkey and their potential health risks. Congener concentrations in ambient air and their deposition rates were determined by an air dispersion model (ISCST3). Their transfer to some plant groups and animal tissues was predicted by food chain modeling. Exposure scenarios were produced based on three receptor groups (urban, semiurban, and rural) and five subgroups determined according to ages. Daily intakes of PCDD/Fs via exposure pathways were determined based on three different emission scenarios for each group and subgroup. Estimated incremental PCDD/F doses caused by the incinerator emissions in central-tendency scenario were computed as between 2.31 x 10(-6) and 0.008 pg TEQ kg(-1) bodyweight (bw) day(-1) on average for all the receptors other than infants in all the settings, while the range was 3.01 x 10(-5)-0.081 pg TEQ kg(-1) bw day(-1) for infants. Sensitivity analysis showed that the consumption of vegetal products and their locally grown fractions are the most significant parameters in the exposure to PCDD/Fs in the area.     

The ecological effects of trichloroacetic acid in the environment

Trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) is a member of the family of compounds known as chloroacetic acids, which includes mono-, di- and trichloroacetic acid. The significant property these compounds share is that they are all phytotoxic. TCAA once was widely used as a potent herbicide. However, long after TCAA's use as a herbicide was discontinued, its presence is still detected in the environment in various compartments. Methods for quantifying TCAA in aqueous and solid samples are summarized. Concentrations in various environmental compartments are presented, with a discussion of the possible formation of TCAA through natural processes. Concentrations of TCAA found to be toxic to aquatic and terrestrial organisms in laboratory and field studies were compiled and used to estimate risk quotients for soil and surface waters. TCAA levels in most water bodies not directly affected by point sources appear to be well below toxicity levels for the most sensitive aquatic organisms. Given the phytotoxicity of TCAA, aquatic plants and phytoplankton would be the aquatic species to monitor for potential effects. Given the concentrations of TCAA measured in various soils, there appears to be a risk to terrestrial organisms. Soil uptake of TCAA by plants has been shown to be rapid. Also, combined uptake of TCAA from soil and directly from the atmosphere has been shown. Therefore, risk quotients derived from soil exposure may underestimate the risk TCAA poses to plants. Moreover, TCE and TCA have been shown to be taken up by plants and converted to TCAA, thus leading to an additional exposure route. Mono- and di-chloroacetic acids can co-occur with TCAA in the atmosphere and soil and are more phytotoxic than TCAA. The cumulative effects of TCAA and compounds with similar toxic effects found in air and soil must be considered in subsequent terrestrial ecosystem risk assessments.     

Environmental implications of changes in the levels of lakes in the Ethiopian Rift since 1970

The Ethiopian rift is characterized by a chain of lakes of various sizes and hydrological and hydrogeological settings. The rift lakes and feeder rivers are used for irrigation, soda extraction, commercial fish farming, and recreation, and they support a wide variety of endemic birds and wild animals. The levels of some of these lakes have changed dramatically over the last three decades. Lakes that are relatively uninfluenced by human activities (Langano and Abaya) remain stable except for the usual inter-annual variations, strongly influenced by rainfall. Some lakes have shrunk due to excessive abstraction of water; others have expanded due to increases in surface runoff and groundwater flux from percolated irrigation water. Lakes Abiyata and Beseka, both heavily impacted by human activities, show contrasting lake level trends: the level of Abiayata has dropped by about 5 m over three decades because of the extraction of water for soda and an upstream diversion for irrigation. Beseka has expanded from an area of 2.5 to 40 km² over the last three decades because of increased groundwater inputs from percolated irrigation water. Lake Awassa has risen slightly due to land use changes resulting in increased runoff in its catchment. This paper addresses these lake level changes and their environmental repercussions, based on evidence from hydrometeorological records, hydrogeological field mapping supported by aerial photography and satellite imagery interpretations, water balance estimation, and hydrological modeling. A converging evidence approach is used to reconstruct the temporal and spatial variations of lake levels. The results reveal that the major changes in the rift valley are mainly related to anthropogenic factors. These changes appear to have grave environmental consequences for the fragile rift ecosystem. These consequences demand the very urgent implementation of integrated basin wide water management practice.     

Using Goals in Environmental Management: The Swedish System of Environmental Objectives

In Sweden, environmental policy is essentially carried out through a system of environmental objectives adopted by Parliament in the late 1990s. This system contains principles, objectives, interim targets, strategies, and follow-up mechanisms, which together provide a solid ground for increased efficiency and improved prioritization in environmental policies. Despite the ambitious approach of the Swedish Parliament, the system of environmental objectives suffers from certain shortcomings. Some of the objectives are imprecise and difficult to evaluate, and there are no rules or principles that may be used to solve goal conflicts and to prioritize between different objectives. As a consequence, the environmental objectives tend to differ in their degrees of operationalizability, and the priority-setting between different objectives is often unclear.*Rskr. denotes a written communication (from the Swedish Parliament to the Swedish Government) of a Parliamentary decision. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

An Ecological Integrity Index for Littoral Wetlands in Agricultural Catchments of Semiarid Mediterranean Regions

The main goal of the present study was to develop an ecological integrity index for littoral wetland management and conservation in semiarid Mediterranean areas that have been highly impacted by agriculture, including the selection of pressure and state indicators at landscape and wetlands scales that reflect the status, condition, and trends of wetlands ecosystems. We used a causality framework based on the relationship between pressure of anthropogenic activities and the ecological state of wetlands and their catchments, integrating environmental, biologic, economic, and social issues. From the application of 51 indicators in 7 littoral wetlands in the southeastern Iberian Peninsula, we selected 12 indicators (5 at catchment scale and 7 at wetland scale) to constitute the ecological integrity index proposed. The potential nitrogen export per area at catchment scale and the potential relative nitrogen export from the area surrounding the wetlands were the best pressure single predictors of state indicators with a causal relationship with environmental meaning. Wetlands in catchments with more agriculture had less ecological integrity than those in less impacted areas. A wide riparian zone in some wetlands acts as a buffer area, diminishing the effects of intensive agriculture. The index of ecological integrity developed here has a number of essential characteristics that make it a useful tool for ecosystem managers and decision-makers. The index can be used to (1) assess and control ecological integrity, (2) diagnose probable causes of ecological impairment, (3) establish criteria for protecting and restoring wetland ecosystems, and (4) integrate catchment management. Published online     

Use of Physical Sciences in Support of Environmental Management

Offshore drilling for oil and gas has been conducted since the early 1900s. Oil and gas under the seabed continue to be an important part of the energy resources of the United States. The need to balance the value of these resources against the potential for environmental damage is an important concern. This article explains why and how the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the US Department of the Interior uses research in physical sciences to help fulfill its environmental goals, and it provides background information on the role of physical sciences in decision-making for Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil, gas, and other minerals development. Established in the 1970s, the MMS Environmental Studies Program is a highly focused marine research program designed to provide the environmental information necessary for OCS energy and nonenergy minerals planning and development activities. The physical sciences research supported by MMS includes physical oceanography, oil-spill risk analyses, atmospheric sciences, and sand and gravel studies. Instead of giving a comprehensive review on physical sciences research in MMS, this article presents sample MMS studies and illustrates how these studies are utilized to support decision-making in environmental management.Published online Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

改进BP算法在煤与瓦斯突出预测中的应用

为了正确预测煤与瓦斯突出的趋势与危险性 ,基于反向BP神经网络 ,笔者提出了一种改进的BP网络模型 :为了加快BP网络的收敛速度 ,增强其跳出局部极小点的能力 ,采用了自适应变步长法和改进模拟退火法 (SA法 )相结合的方法。实际应用表明 ,该模型收敛速度快 ,准确性高 ,具有较高的可靠性和实用性 ,是一种十分有效的煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测方法。     

Adolescent driver risk taking and driver education: evidence of a mobility bias in public policymaking

PROBLEM: Road traffic injury is the leading cause of death among adolescents in high-income countries. Researchers attribute this threat to driver risk taking, which driver education (DE) attempts to reduce. Many North American authorities grant DE graduates earlier access to unsupervised driving despite no evidence of this being a safety benefit. This theoretical article examines risk taking and DE in relation to an apparent mobility bias (MB) in policymaking. METHOD: The MB is defined, the history and sources of driver risk taking are examined, and the failure of DE to reduce collision risk is analyzed in relation to a potential MB in licensing policies. DISCUSSION: The author argues that DE's failure to reduce adolescent collision risk is associated with a MB that has produced insufficient research into DE programs and that influences public policymakers to grant earlier licensure to DE graduates. Recommendations are made regarding future research on DE and risk taking, coordinated improvements to DE and driver licensing, and a plan to reduce collision risk by encouraging parental supervision after adolescent licensure. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Research on adolescent driver risk taking would have direct applications in DE curricula development, driver's license evaluation criteria, graduated licensing (GDL) policies, as well as other aspects of human factor research into the crash-risk problem.