Optimization of facility location and reallocation in an industrial plant through a multi-annual framework accounting for economic and safety issues

The industrial layout traditionally has been addressed accounting for the facilities distribution and installation since the first day of operation of the plant; this is, without considering future expansions that involve additional facilities in the future operation years. This way, this paper proposes a mathematical programming formulation for the optimal facility sitting and reallocation in an industry accounting for future expansions and involving simultaneously economic and safety objectives. The proposed formulation is based on a multi-annual framework and this corresponds to a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming problem. The proposed optimization approach was applied to a case study for the facility sitting (office buildings and control rooms) in an ethylene oxide plant. The economic objective function involves the minimization of the total annual cost accounting for the value of the money through the time and the safety objective function involves the minimization for the accumulated risk over the operation time. Results show the applicability of the proposed approach.     

Alcohol is a predictor of mortality in motor vehicle collisions

IntroductionIt is well recognized that driving while intoxicated increases the probability of a motor-vehicle collision (MVC). The effect of alcohol on the chance of surviving the MVC is less clear. Method: Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) we conducted analyses for the outcome of mortality using alcohol and other variables as predictors. We also selected alcohol positive (AP) and alcohol negative (AN) persons from the same MVC and vehicle to control for confounding characteristics. Results: The odds ratio (OR) for mortality for alcohol positive drivers was 2.57, (p < 0.001 for all the following OR). Other harmful predictive factors were age OR 1.01 per year, vehicle age OR 1.05 per year, male sex OR 1.23, avoidance maneuver OR 1.09, speed related OR 2.89, rollover mechanism OR 2.75, and collision with a fixed object OR 6.70. Protective factors were proper restraint use – OR 0.19 and collision with another moving vehicle, OR 0.21. In the multivariate analysis the OR of mortality for AP vs AN was 1.46. Proper restraint use (OR 0.27) remained protective along with collision with another moving vehicle. When AP and AN persons from the same MVC and the same vehicle were compared, the adjusted OR’s for mortality were 1.46 and 2.08, respectively. Conclusions: Alcohol is an independent predictor of mortality in an MVC. Proper restraint use is the strongest protective factor. This finding allows a more complete understanding of the risks of driving while intoxicated, not only a higher probability of an MVC, but decreased survival once the MVC occurs. Practical Applications: Identification of alcohol as an independent predictor of mortality in an accident may improve risk assessment and influence drivers to avoid driving while intoxicated.     

Extrinsic and intrinsic determinants of winter foraging and breeding phenology in a temperate seabird

In temperate regions, winter presents animals with a number of challenges including depressed food abundance, increased daily energy requirements, higher frequency of extreme weather events and shortened day length. Overcoming these constraints is critical for overwintering survival and scheduling of future breeding of long-lived species and is likely to be state dependent, associated with intrinsic abilities such as food acquisition rates. We examined the relationship between environmental and intrinsic factors on overwintering foraging and subsequent breeding phenology of the European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis, a diurnal marine predator. We tested a range of hypotheses relating to overwintering foraging time and location. We found that individuals greatly increased their foraging time in winter to a peak of more than 90% of available daylight at the winter solstice. The seasonal patterns of foraging time appear to be driven by a combination of light levels and weather conditions and may be linked to the availability of the shag's principal prey, the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus. There was no evidence that shags dispersed south in winter to increase potential foraging time. Foraging time decreased after the winter solstice and, crucially, was correlated with subsequent breeding phenology, such that individuals that spent less time foraging in February bred earlier. The relationship was much stronger in females than males, in line with their more direct control of timing of breeding. Our results demonstrate that pre-breeding intrinsic foraging ability is critical in determining breeding phenology.     

Strategic environmental policy; eco-dumping or a green strategy?

The Porter hypothesis claims that a strong environmental policy best serves the interests of a nation's export industry. While this hypothesis seems to be based on some form of bounded rationality, this paper argues that governments may have good reasons for setting an especially strong environmental policy even though firms are fully rational. If the available abatement technology turns the environment into an “inferior input”, competitiveness is spurred by a strong environmental policy. The government should take advantage of this, and set an especially strict emission quota or an especially high emission tax. The findings in the paper also has consequences for the desirability of international cooperation with respect to national environmental policy. If a strict environmental policy spurs competitiveness, the environment is better protected without cooperation.     

Influence of maternal food availability on offspring dispersal

Prenatal effects caused by the maternal environment during gestation are known to contribute to the phenotype of the offspring. Whether they have some adaptive value is currently under debate. We experimentally tested the existence of such a maternal effect (food availability during gestation) on dispersal of offspring in the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara). Pregnant females were captured and kept in the laboratory until parturition. During this period, females were offered two rates of food delivery. After parturition, we released mothers and offspring at the mother's capture point. Dispersal of young was significantly affected by the mother's nutrition. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of a prenatal effect on dispersal. Offspring of well fed mothers dispersed at a higher rate than those of less well fed mothers. As current hypotheses clearly predict the opposite result, our evidence calls for their reassessment. Dispersers are not always the least fit individuals or those coming from the poorest environments.     

High serum S-equol content in red clover fed ewes: the classical endocrine disruptor is a single enantiomer

An expedient high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was developed for the quantitative analysis of environmental estrogenic isoflavonoids, particularly (S)-equol, in red clover fed ewes. We report here the phytoestrogen analysis of red clover silage and the serum of ewes fed with this feed. Ewes received daily 10.5 g of formononetin on average from red clover silage. In the serum samples a major part of formononetin had been metabolised to equol (average 7.7 μg ml⁻¹). According to chiral HPLC analysis, the equol present in the serum of ewes was solely of the (S)-form. We also demonstrate the presence of the metabolite O-demethylangolensin (O-DMA) in ovine serum.     

Elk decision-making rules are simplified in the presence of wolves

The risk of predation drives many behavioral responses in prey. However, few studies have directly tested whether predation risk alters the way other variables influence prey behavior. Here we use information theory (Akaike’s Information Criterion, AICc) in a novel way to test the hypothesis that the decision-making rules governing elk behavior are simplified by the presence of wolves. With elk habitat use as the dependent variable, we test whether the number of independent variables (i.e., the size of the models) that best predict this behavior differ when wolves are present vs absent. Thus, we use AICc scores simply to determine the number of variables to which elk respond when making decisions. We measured habitat use using 2,288 locations from GPS collars on 14 elk, over two winters (14 elk winters), in the Gallatin Canyon portion of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that the use of three major habitat components (grass, conifer, sage) was sensitive to many variables on days that wolves were locally absent, with the best models (ΔAICc≤2) averaging 7.4 parameters. In contrast, habitat use was sensitive to few variables on days when wolves were present: the best models averaged only 2.5 parameters. Because fewer variables affect elk behavior in the presence of wolves, we conclude that elk use simpler decision-making rules in the presence of wolves. This simplification of decision-making rules implies that predation risk imposes selection pressures that do not allow prey to respond to other pressures in ways that they otherwise would. If the affected processes are important, then this indirect effect of predation is likely to be important.     

A new synergetic paradigm in environmental numerical modeling: Hybrid models combining deterministic and machine learning components

A new type of environmental numerical models, hybrid environmental numerical models (HEMs) based on combining deterministic modeling and machine learning components, is introduced and formulated. Conceptual and practical possibilities of developing HEM, as an optimal synergetic combination of the traditional deterministic/first principles modeling (like that used for solving PDEs on the sphere representing model dynamics of global climate models) and machine learning components (like accurate and fast neural network emulations of model physics or chemistry processes), are discussed. Examples of developed HEMs (hybrid climate models and a hybrid wind–wave ocean model) illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the new approach for modeling extremely complex multidimensional systems.     

Risk taking during parental care: a test of three hypotheses applied to the pied flycatcher

According to life-history theory, there will often be a conflict between investment in current versus future reproduction. If a predator appears during breeding, parents must make a compromise between ensuring the growth and survival of offspring (nest defence, feeding and brooding of young), and reducing the risk of predation to ensure their own survival. We model three hypotheses for the outcome of this conflict which are particularly relevant for altricial birds. They are not mutually exclusive, but focus on different costs and benefits. (1) Parental investment is determined by the parents’ own risk of predation. This hypothesis predicts that a lone parent should take smaller risks than a parent that has a mate. (2) Parental investment is related to the reproductive value of the offspring: Parents are predicted to take greater risks for larger broods, larger-sized or older offspring. (3) Finally, we present the new hypothesis that parental investment is related to the harm that offspring would suffer during a period of no parental care (incubation, brooding, feeding). This hypothesis predicts that parents should take greater risks for younger offspring, or for offspring in poorer condition, because the marginal benefit of parental care is largest in such cases. Hence, one may also expect that lone parents should take greater risks than two parents because their offspring are more in need of care. We tested these hypotheses on the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) by presenting a stuffed predator of the parents (a sparrowhawk, Accipiter nisus) close to the nest when parents were feeding the young. Risk taking was measured as the time that elapsed until the first visit to the nest. Most support was found for the ‘‘harm to offspring’’ hypothesis. Previous studies have usually measured the intensity of nest defence against typical nest predators, and have found evidence for the ‘‘reproductive value of offspring’’ hypothesis. However, our model predicts that the importance of the reproductive value of the offspring should decrease relative to the harm that offspring would suffer if they were not cared for when the predator type changes from a nest predator to a predator of adults, and when conditions for breeding turn from good to bad. Received: 13 April 1995/Accepted after revision: 11 March 1996     

Designatable Units for Status Assessment of Endangered Species

Abstract:  Species status assessment and the conservation of biological diversity may require defining units below the species level to portray probabilities of extinction accurately and to help set priorities for conservation efforts. What those units should be has been debated in the scientific literature largely in terms of evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), but this discourse has had little impact on government policy with regard to status assessment. As with species concepts, the variously proposed ESU concepts have not been resolvable into a single approach. The need for a practicable procedure to identify infraspecific entities for status assignment is the motivation behind employing designatable units (DUs). In aid of a policy to prevent elements of biodiversity from becoming extinct or extirpated, DUs are determined during the process of resolving a species' conservation status according to broadly applicable guidelines. The procedure asks whether putative DUs are distinguishable based on a reliably established taxonomy or a well-corroborated phylogeny, compelling evidence of genetic distinction, range disjunction, and/or biogeographic distinction as long as extinction probabilities also differ. The language of the DU approach avoids wording that implies value judgments concerning evolutionary importance or significance. Because species conservation status assessment is not science but, rather, the use of science to further policy, DUs contribute to a precautionary approach to listing whereby status may be assessed even though knowledge of systematic relationships below the species level may be lacking or unresolved. The pragmatic approach of using DUs has been adopted by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada for status assessment of species under the Canadian Species at Risk Act.