天然气供气业务风险分析与应急预案设计

近年来,天然气消费量迅速增长,天然气领域的投入和天然气储量、产量和贸易量也呈迅速增长态势,并显示出增长的巨大潜力。天然气市场需求量的大幅度增加与国内天然气供给不足造成的供需不平衡,给天然气供气业务带来了极大的挑战。本文根据近两年来天然气供应面临的危机,分别对天然气供气产业链的上、中、下游的突发事件风险进行分析;并针对供气业务中断带来的风险,从突发事件分级、应急处置流程等两个关键要素着手对应急预案进行优化。该研究对完善天然气供气突发事件应急预案、有效快速应对突发事件提供了参考和指导。     

A fuzzy logic and probabilistic hybrid approach to quantify the uncertainty in layer of protection analysis

Layer of protection analysis (LOPA) is a widely used semi-quantitative risk assessment method. It provides a simplified and less precise method to assess the effectiveness of protection layers and the residual risk of an incident scenario. The outcome failure frequency and consequence of that residual risk are intended to be conservative by prudently selecting input data, given that design specification and component manufacturer's data are often overly optimistic. There are many influencing factors, including design deficiencies, lack of layer independence, availability, human factors, wear by testing and maintenance shortcomings, which are not quantified and are dependent on type of process and location. This makes the risk in LOPA usually overestimated. Therefore, to make decisions for a cost-effective system, different sources and types of uncertainty in the LOPA model need to be identified and quantified. In this study, a fuzzy logic and probabilistic hybrid approach was developed to determine the mean and to quantify the uncertainty of frequency of an initiating event and the probabilities of failure on demand (PFD) of independent protection layers (IPLs). It is based on the available data and expert judgment. The method was applied to a distillation system with a capacity to distill 40 tons of flammable n-hexane. The outcome risk of the new method has been proven to be more precise compared to results from the conventional LOPA approach.     

Underground parallel pipelines domino effect: An analysis based on pipeline crater models and historical accidents

This paper focuses on the analysis of the possibility of domino effect in underground parallel pipelines relying on historical accident data and pipeline crater models. An underground pipeline can be considered as safe following an accident with an adjacent gas or liquefied pipeline when it remains outside the ground crater generated. In order to prevent the domino effect in these cases, the design of parallel pipelines has to consider adequate pipeline separations based on the crater width, which is one of the widely used methods in engineering applications. The objective of this work is the analysis of underground petroleum product pipelines ruptures with the formation of a ground crater as well as the evaluation of possible domino effects in these cases. A detailed literature survey has been carried out to review existing crater models along with a historical analysis of past accidents. A FORTRAN code has been implemented to assess the performance of the Gasunie, the Batelle and the Advantica crater models. In addition to this, a novel Accident-Based crater model has been presented, which allows the prediction of the crater width as a function of the relevant design pipeline parameters as well as the soil density. Modifications have also been made to the Batelle and Accident-Based models in order to overcome the underestimation of the crater width. The calculated crater widths have been compared with real accident data and the performance evaluation showed that the proposed Accident-Based model has a better performance compared to other models studied in this work. The analysis of forty-eight past accidents indicated a major potential of underground parallel pipelines domino effect which is proven by two real cases taken from the literature. Relying on the investigated accidents, the crater width was smaller than or equal to 20 m in most cases indicating that the definition of underground pipeline separations at around 10 m would be sufficient to ensure a small probability of the domino effect.     

Development of collision risk indicators for autonomous subsea inspection maintenance and repair

The objective of this article is to present a method for developing collision risk indicators applicable for autonomous remotely operated vehicles (AROVs), which are essential for promoting situation awareness in decisions support systems. Three suitable risk based collision indicators are suggested for AROVs namely, time to collision, mean time to collision and mean impact energy. The proposed indicators are classified into different thresholds; low, intermediate and high. An AROV flight path is simulated to gather input data to calculate the proposed indicators and three collision targets are established, i.e., subsea structure, seabed and a cooperating AROV. The proposed indicator development method together with the case study show a proof-of-concept that the combination of mean time to collision and mean impact energy indicators can identify risk prone waypoints in the AROV path. The method results in an overall risk picture for a given AROV path. The results may provide useful input in replanning of mission paths and for implementation of risk reducing measures. Even though the method focuses on collision risk, it can be used for other accident scenarios for AROVs.     

Risk management in operations of petrochemical plants: Can better planning prevent major accidents and save money at the same time?

This paper presents an argument that improvement in operational safety can be achieved concurrently with increased operational efficiency. This is a fundamentally different viewpoint on the investment in safety. Traditionally, the cost of providing safety barriers is offset by the expected benefits of reducing the occurrence and severity of accidents. Our approach departs from this method of accounting for safety improvements and focuses on planning as a means of managing systems' response uncertainty and consequently reducing both major accident risk and the cost of operations. The scope of the paper is limited to interventions such as maintenance and repairs and defined in the context of major accident prevention e.g. hydrocarbon leaks. However, the developed methodology is general enough to be applied across the spectrum of process industry facilities and operations.     

基于环境“一张图”的环境网格化管理平台建设思路探讨——以长吉产业创新发展示范区为例

阐述了网格和网格化的发展,总结典型城市环境网格化管理实践经验,提出环境网格化管理思路。根据环境总体规划中环境空间管控要求,将环境"一张图"与环境网格化管理相结合,提出建立"行政网格+标准公里网格"的环境网格化管理平台。以长吉产业创新发展示范区为例,通过建立层次分析法模型,实现水、大气、生态等环境要素"一张图"管控,识别网格保护优先等级,为下一步环境网格化平台建设提供技术支持。     

海南岛近岸海域环境容量与纳污总量分析

通过对海南岛"十二五"期间近岸海域纳污总量、环境质量状况及环境容量比较分析,得出各主要排污区环境容量的剩余环境容量。结果表明,全省主要污染物化学需氧量入海量仅占环境容量的2.6%,氨氮占环境容量的26.6%,虽然全省近岸海域环境基本未受污染物入海量影响,仍有较大的纳污空间,可利用的环境容量非常充裕。为避免出现排污达标但环境质量下降的状况,提出建立近岸海域主要污染物总量控制制度,由浓度控制到总量和浓度控制并存。     

污染地块环境风险管控对策研究

鉴于我国污染地块环境管控法规制度缺失,土壤环境监管方面基本处于空白的实际,为了加强对污染地块的风险管控,规范对污染地块的开发利用,文章从厘清污染地块监管责任、明确监管责任、建立污染地块风险管控制度等方面提出了具体对策,建立了相关的风险管控制度,以期为我国污染地块环境管控提供技术支撑。     

Reasons for implementing ISO 14001 in Malaysia

Environmental management systems (EMS) have been introduced globally to reduce environmental degradation issues brought about by industrial development. The research discussed in this paper is aimed at identifying the benefits and motivations of the implementation of EMS in compliance with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 14001 standard in Malaysian industries by using the pairwise comparison method. Experts in EMS from the Scientific and Industrial Research Institute of Malaysia were invited to participate in the research panel. Based on the experts’ input, data analysis was carried out by using multi‐criteria pairwise comparisons. The findings showed the ranked benefits and motivations of the implementation of the ISO 14001 standard for businesses. The results can indicate to policy‐makers and business advisors how businesses can be encouraged to implement the ISO 14001.     

Power,responsibility and justice: a review of local stakeholder participation in European flood risk management

Over the past few decades, there has been an increasing interest in the active involvement of local stakeholders in the management of floods in Europe. Such involvement is seen as necessary as the management of floods becomes more complex. Management approaches now seek to include a range of potential measures to reduce risk (e.g. structural defence, spatial planning and property-level protection measures). Local stakeholder involvement is seen to be important because governments lack the capacities such as knowledge and funding required to deliver all these measures alone. This paper focuses on the implications that more participative approaches have on the fairness of European flood risk management (FRM). Studies of environmental justice are well placed to address this question because they are interested in who is included and excluded from decisions related to the distribution of environmental goods (resources) and bads (risks). Existing literature suggests that fair decision-making processes (procedural justice) can lead to fair distribution or resources and risks (distributive justice). This literature review of 30 peer-reviewed papers provides an analysis of justice and FRM by assessing practices of participation which are presented in the recent literature on local stakeholder involvement in FRM in England, Germany and the Netherlands. It was found that participation in practice generally focuses on transferring responsibility to the local level at the expense of power. This paper discusses the implications that this finding has for justice and synthesises potential ways forward based on recommendations of the reviewed literature.