Incorporating low-resolution historic species location data decreases performance of distribution models

Developing robust species distribution models is important as model outputs are increasingly being incorporated into conservation policy and management decisions. A largely overlooked component of model assessment and refinement is whether to include historic species occurrence data in distribution models to increase the data sample size. Data of different temporal provenance often differ in spatial accuracy and precision. We test the effect of inclusion of historic coarse-resolution occurrence data on distribution model outputs for 187 species of birds in Australian tropical savannas. Models using only recent (after 1990), fine-resolution data had significantly higher model performance scores measured with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than models incorporating both fine- and coarse-resolution data. The drop in AUC score is positively correlated with the total area predicted to be suitable for the species (R² = 0.163-0.187, depending on the environmental predictors in the model), as coarser data generally leads to greater predicted areas. The remaining unexplained variation is likely to be due to the covariate errors resulting from resolution mismatch between species records and environmental predictors. We conclude that decisions regarding data use in species distribution models must be conscious of the variation in predictions that mixed-scale datasets might cause.     

Regulatory attitudes and environmental innovation in a model combining internal and external R&D

The extent to which environmental regulatory institutions are either ‘green’ or ‘brown’ impacts not just the intensity of regulation at any moment, but also the incentives for the development of new pollution-control technologies. We set up a strategic model of R&D in which a polluter can deploy technologies developed in-house, or license technologies developed by specialist outsiders (an ‘eco-industry’). Polluters exert R&D effort and may even develop redundant technologies to improve the terms on which they procure technology from outside. We find that, while regulatory bias has an ambiguous impact on the best-available technology, strategic delegation to systematically biased regulators can improve social welfare.     

基于MMAS-BP的煤与瓦斯突出强度预测

为提高煤与瓦斯突出强度的预测精度及预测速度,用最大最小蚂蚁系统和BP神经网络相结合的方法进行预测模型设计。根据煤与瓦斯突出强度及其主要影响因素之间的关系数据,建立其神经网络的预测模型。以网络的权值和阈值为自变量,网络误差为目标函数,通过蚁群算法的迭代运算,搜索出误差的全局最小值,以实现BP神经网络的初始权值、阈值优化,并用优化后的网络进行瓦斯突出强度的预测。实例结果表明,MMAS-BP算法的预测值均方差为0.089,约为BP神经网络的0.1倍,且输出稳定性好,适用于煤与瓦斯突出强度的预测。     

宝钢环境信息化系统建设探索

系统介绍了宝钢环境信息化系统建设架构、功能、特点,以及对污染减排、环境自动监测及信息化技术进行有效融合后的应用实践,并对该信息化系统在提高环境监控能力,完善系统建设上提出扩展监控范围、提升功能等构想.     

2000-2007年省级区域自然灾害灾情分析

自然灾害是严重影响人民正常生产生活、国家经济持续发展的突发公共事件。区域自然灾害评估对于做好防灾减灾工作有着重要的意义。对区域灾情进行了综合评估,归纳总结了区域灾情分布规律。选择受灾人口、死亡人口、紧急转移安置人口、农作物受灾面积、农作物绝收面积、倒塌房屋、损坏房屋和直接经济损失等8个基本指标参与区域灾情评估,并利用灾情综合指数法构建了灾情指数,其中绝对指数反映了区域灾情的绝对强度,相对指数反映了区域灾情对当地社会经济的影响程度。用灾情指数综合评估了我国东、中、西部三大地带以及省级区域的灾情强度和空间分布规律,认为西部区域受灾程度最大,自然灾害对其的影响程度最深,其次是中部地区和东部地区;文章利用综合灾情的绝对指数和相对指数的对应关系,将我国大陆地区的31个省级单元划分为4类地区,即灾情总量较大且对本地影响较大、灾情总量较大但对本地影响较小、灾情总量较小但对本地影响较大以及灾情总量较小且对本地影响较小等4种类型。文章给出的灾情区域分布规律符合灾害系统理论,特别反映了承灾体的暴露度、脆弱性和抗灾能力是区域灾情强度的决定因素。评估结果与区域实际情况相符,说明所给出的灾情指数评估法是评估区域灾情强弱的合理有效方法。     

基于细胞尺度的光照对四尾栅藻生长的影响

以四尾栅藻（Scenedesmus quadricauda）为研究对象,采用平行平板流动腔装置,基于计算机视觉的藻细胞动态生长观察方法,从单细胞尺度研究不同光照强度对四尾栅藻藻细胞生长的影响.成功建立了四尾栅藻个体生长曲线模型,模型拟合效果良好.结果表明：在8000lux光照强度下,藻细胞的体积最大比生长速率最大,即四尾栅藻生长的最适光照强度为8000lux;适宜的光照条件可以增加藻细胞分裂时的大小,小于8000lux时,藻细胞分裂体积随着光照强度的增加而增加,大于8000lux时,藻细胞分裂时体积反而越来越小;较高的光照强度还有利于藻细胞适应新的环境,减少藻细胞复苏时间.     

Comprehensive and high-resolution emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants for the northernmost cities agglomeration of Harbin-Changchun, China: Implications for local atmospheric environment management

Using a bottom-up estimation method, a comprehensive, high-resolution emission inventory of gaseous and particulate atmospheric pollutants for multiple anthropogenic sectors with typical local sources has been developed for the Harbin-Changchun city agglomeration (HCA). The annual emissions for CO, NOx, SO₂, NH₃, VOC_S, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, BC and OC during 2017 in the HCA were estimated to be 5.82 Tg, 0.70 Tg, 0.34 Tg, 0.75 Tg, 0.81Tg, 0.67 Tg, 1.59 Tg, 0.12 Tg and 0.26 Tg, respectively. For PM₁₀ and SO₂, the emissions from industry processes were the dominant contributors representing 54.7% and 49.5%, respectively, of the total emissions, while 95.3% and 44.5% of the total NH₃ and NOx emissions, respectively, were from or associated with agricultural activities and transportation. Spatiotemporal distributions showed that most emissions (except NH₃) occurred in November to March and were concentrated in the central cities of Changchun and Harbin and the surrounding cities. Open burning of straw made an important contribution to PM_2.5 in the central regions of the northeastern plain during autumn and spring, while domestic coal combustion for heating purposes was significant with respect to SO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions during autumn and winter. Furthermore, based on Principal Component Analysis and Multivariable Linear Regression model, air temperature, relative humidity, electricity and energy consumption, and the urban and rural population were optimized to be representative indicators for rapidly assessing the magnitude of regional atmospheric pollutants in the HCA. Such indicators and equations were demonstrated to be useful for local atmospheric environment management.     

生态市建设的战略环境影响评价初探——以淮南市为例

生态市建设是一项系统工程，是实现可持续发展的必然途径。通过对战略环境影响评价理论、方法的探讨，开发出了针对生态市建设的战略环境影响评价技术框架，并以淮南市为例，构建了一套完整的战略环境影响评价指标体系。最后分析了淮南生态市建设SEIA的主要内容：土地利用规划、产业政策结构调整以及各项战略的环境影响评价，为生态市建设SEIA提供方法和技术支持。     

Developing sustainable products and services

In light of increasing pressures to adopt a more sustainable approach to product design and manufacture, the requirement to develop sustainable products is one of the key challenges facing industry in the 21st century. Hence, the concept of developing sustainable products as well as services is evolving as a key element of Cleaner Production. Sustainable product development initiatives (mainly through eco-design) have been evolving for some time to support companies develop more sustainable products. Ireland has been running the highly successful Environmentally Superior Products (ESP) initiative that supports industrial companies to incorporate a more sustainable approach to the development of products and/or services. The lessons learned from the ESP and other global Sustainable Product and Service Developments in industry and research, are being used to develop a method for effective sustainable product and/or service development (SPSD) in industry. The method is designed to provide pragmatic guidance to business and industry for developing sustainable products and services as well as incorporating this approach within existing corporate strategy, cleaner production and product development systems. This method is being developed by the authors at the Environmental Policy and Management Group (EPMG), Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Imperial College London, UK in conjunction with industry and practitioners. The method provides a framework for implementing SPSD throughout the entire lifecycle of a product and/or service. It can be used to identify, assess and implement the options for optimum sustainability in the design and development of a product and/or service. This paper describes the key features of this method.     

环境影响评价中公众参与的机制与有效性

公众参与是环境影响评价中的重要内容。从公众参与的定义、目标和作用入手，就环境影响评价中公众参与的作用机制及其有效性进行探讨，认为：广泛的公众代表性、有效的公众参与形式以及公众意见的如实反映和客观分析，都是增进环境影响评价中公众参与的机制有效性的重要因素。