METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

农村污染防治工作已迫在眉睫

针对目前农村经济发展过程中出现的主要环境问题,结合农村的实际情况,提出了解决农村环境污染问题的几项措施。并着重分析了规模化畜禽养殖业中的环境污染问题,提出了综合防治对策。     

环境民事法律责任与环境损害赔偿

环境民事责任是环境法律责任的一种形式,是解决和处理环境损害赔偿中重要的法律依据。     

THE VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: The vulnerability of wetlands to changes in climate depends on their position within hydrologic landscapes. Hydrologic landscapes are defined by the flow characteristics of ground water and surface water and by the interaction of atmospheric water, surface water, and ground water for any given locality or region. Six general hydrologic landscapes are defined; mountainous, plateau and high plain, broad basins of interior drainage, riverine, flat coastal, and hummocky glacial and dune. Assessment of these landscapes indicate that the vulnerability of all wetlands to climate change fall between two extremes: those dependent primarily on precipitation for their water supply are highly vulnerable, and those dependent primarily on discharge from regional ground water flow systems are the least vulnerable, because of the great buffering capacity of large ground water flow systems to climate change.     

全球变化对跨境淡水资源利用和管理的影响

跨境淡水资源的合理利用和协调管理,已成为当今国际区域经济发展、跨境资源和市场共享、世界生态维护的合作主题,成为下世纪制约区域可持续发展和避免地区冲突的一个关键因素,受到国际社会广泛关注。从边界变化、国际区域合作和经济一体化、气候变化、人口增长、可持续发展等全球趋势对此主题的影响进行了探讨。     

低碳经济背景下地方政府环境政策执行力调控研究

环境政策执行力与低碳经济发展之间相互促进、相互推动。目前我国已形成较完整的环境政策体系,但在实际执行中并未取得应有的成效。参考国内外已有的地方政府环境政策执行力调控经验,分析环境政策执行力影响因素,从管理体制、诱导制度、监督制度、执行主体自身建设等多个角度提出在低碳经济背景下我国地方政府环境政策执行力调控策略。     

基于人因失误分析的医院电气安全管理研究

医院是重点用电单位,用电的安全性和供电可靠性都比较高,但因不可抗力、供电系统故障、医院管理问题、人为失误等方面的原因,仍存在发生各类电气突发事件的风险。其中,由人的误操作或不安全行为因素而诱发的电气方面的突发事件已成为医院非医疗事故的主要原因。文章针对医院电气安全操作方面的人因失误,从个人和组织两个角度进行了失误原因的分析,认为人的失误既受个体因素的影响,也受环境、制度和管理水平的影响。在此基础上,提出完善相关规章制度建设、加强教育与培训等,从组织制度建设、人员技术素质提高等方面,提出预防与减少人因失误的措施与方法,提高供配电质量,为医院医疗工作提供有效的电气安全后勤保障。     

我国环境侵权的立法缺陷与完善对策

分析我国环境侵权的立法缺陷，如在环境侵权的归责原则，环境侵权的责任方式以及环境权的法律地位等方面还不尽完善，合理，探讨环境立法中需建立和完善的相关制度，如团体放讼制度，行政救济体制，责任保险制度和国家赔偿制度等。     

环境法治多中心模式及其结构设计

首先指出我国目前的环境法治行政单中心模式的弊端,进而分析了多中心理论在我国的适用性,并在对其进行修正的基础上,进行了环境法治多中心模式的框架设计。     

电子废弃物回收管理现状与研究

针对我国电子废弃物的巨大产生量和废弃量,分析了我国电子废弃物的来源与流向,以及管理过程中收集、贮存、重复使用和再生利用等几个环节的现状。提出针对我国国情,在电子废弃物立法、产业化以及回收体制等方面的可行性建议。