Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision‐making in disaster risk reduction.     

地震人员伤亡快速评估模型研究

每年地震都会给社会造成巨大人员伤亡,如果震后能迅速预知地震人员伤亡数量,这对挽救生命损失是十分有意义的。统计了近10年来中国大陆数10次强震、中强震灾害损失,根据影响伤亡的主要因素,用线性回归分析法,建立地震人员伤亡快速评估模型,并对模型进行验证,使之可用于地震预警。     

The impact of a standard enforcement safety belt law on fatalities and hospital charges in Ohio

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to analyze linked crash and hospital data to determine the effect that enactment of a standard enforcement safety belt law in Ohio would have on hospital charges and direct medical costs due to motor-vehicle crashes, focusing on the impact to the state's Medicaid system.

Method

The linkage and analysis was conducted as part of the Ohio Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES) program. Current safety belt usage in Ohio stands at 82% with its secondary enforcement safety belt law.

Results

Assuming an increase in usage to 92% through standard enforcement, over $15.3 million in medical costs to Medicaid for injuries that occur in a single year could be prevented over a 10-year period. Cumulative savings could reach more than $91.2 million during the 10-year period. In addition, 161 fatalities could have been prevented in one year had all unbelted occupants who sustained a fatal injury instead chosen to wear their safety belt.

Summary and Impact on Industry

Clearly, substantial progress can be made in reducing the number of deaths and injuries, as well as medical costs associated with motor-vehicle crashes, by strengthening safety belt laws and increasing safety belt usage in Ohio.     

塔机安全监控与评估系统开发及应用

目前中国由于建设项目繁多,在役塔机数量急剧上升,若不加强监管和提升控制手段,安全事故隐患会随着塔机数量的增加剧增。本文对塔机安全事故发生的主要原因进行了分析,介绍了塔机安全监控和评估系统的技术现状,对一种新研发的塔机安全监控与评估系统做了简要阐述。同时通过对试点工程的应用,指出了本塔机安全监控和评估系统的优势,为塔机的安全作业监控提供了一个新的技术方法和手段。     

System safety principles: A multidisciplinary engineering perspective

System safety is of particular importance for many industries. Broadly speaking, it refers to the state or objective of striving to sustainably ensure accident prevention through actions on multiple safety levers (technical, organizational, and regulatory). While complementary to risk analysis, it is distinct in one important way: risk analysis is anticipatory rationality examining the possibility of adverse events (or accident scenarios), and the tools of risk analysis support and in some cases quantify various aspects of this analysis effort. The end-objective of risk analysis is to help identify and prioritize risks, inform risk management, and support risk communication. These tools however do not provide design or operational guidelines and principles for eliminating or mitigating risks. Such considerations fall within the purview of system safety.In this work, we propose a set of five safety principles, which are domain-independent, technologically agnostic, and broadly applicable across industries. While there is a proliferation of detailed safety measures (tactics) in specific areas and industries, a synthesis of high-level safety principles or strategies that are independent of any particular instantiation, and from which specific safety measures can be derived or related to, has pedagogical value and fulfills an important role in safety training and education. Such synthesis effort also supports creativity and technical ingenuity in the workforce for deriving specific safety measures, and for implementing these principles and handling specific local or new risks. Our set of safety principles includes: (1) the fail-safe principle; (2) the safety margins principle; (3) the un-graduated response principle (under which we subsume the traditional “inherently safe design” principle); (4) the defense-in-depth principle; and (5) the observability-in-depth principle. We carefully examine each principle and provide examples that illustrate their use and implementation. We relate these principles to the notions of hazard level, accident sequence, and conditional probabilities of further hazard escalation or advancement of an accident sequence. These principles are a useful addition to the intellectual toolkit of engineers, decision-makers, and anyone interested in safety issues, and they provide helpful guidelines during system design and risk management efforts.     

Validation of the UN test method N.5

Many substances react with water in such a way that flammable gases are formed. For transport issues this reaction may possess a considerable hazard especially if the cargo is wetted by rain or by water from other sources. In the UN Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods these kinds of problems are addressed. The UN test N.5 “Test method for substances which in contact with water emit flammable gases” corresponds to this hazard. Classification according to the test method is done by measurement of the gas evolution rate of the flammable gas by any suitable procedure. At BAM a gravimetric approach is used to measure the gas evolution rate. In this paper we present the evaluation of the apparatus by means of an absolute calibration routine utilizing a reaction where a known amount of gas is produced as well as the evaluation of important parameters influencing the gas evolution rate using different substances. It can be shown that the apparatus is capable of measuring absolute gas volumes as low as 6 mL with an acceptable error of about 17% as determined from the reaction of Mg with demineralized water.     

六箱一体化工艺处理城市污水周期设置的试验

介绍了智能型六箱一体化活性污泥脱氮除磷工艺的运行方式及原理,并研究了周期设置对污染物去除的影响。中试研究表明,在泥龄13d和水力停留时间13h的条件下．当周期时间为16h时．工艺取得良好的脱氮除磷效果．出水水质可达国家一级A排放标准。     

基于GIS的城市公共安全规划信息系统研究

随着城市建设步伐的加快和城市人口的急剧膨胀,各种灾害事故发生的频度和程度迅速增加,使得城市的可持续发展受到严重威胁,城市公共安全面临空前的挑战,建立城市公共安全规划信息系统势在必行。介绍了以地理信息系统为开发平台,实现安全规划对象海量数据的可视化、规范化、条理化及可编辑化,并根据城市各类防救灾设施的规划标准与建构模式,建立城市救灾单元区域和危险源区域,得出救灾单位的有效服务范围和危险源的风险范围,利用G IS的分析统计功能,快速统计出区域内人口及资源,依此计算救灾单位应具备的资源量,并合理组织危险源区域内人口的转移搬迁工作。     

Temporal variation of the concentration and biochemical composition of seston within the Humboldt Current System off northern Chile (21°S)

Seasonal differences in the concentration and biochemical composition of seston have been assessed for the first time in the Humboldt Current System off northern Chile (21°S). The study comprised four seasonal surveys in the Bay of Chipana, including the summer and winter of 2006 and 2007, when El Niño 2006 and La Niña 2007 developed. Protein, lipid, carbohydrate and biogenic silica contents were measured in samples collected at four selected depths. The highest protein, lipid and carbohydrate concentrations were found at the fluorescence maximum (between 10 and 15 m depth), whereas the highest biogenic silica concentration was found 1 m above the seabed. When El Niño started developing, every variable showed low values throughout the water column; however, the lowest values were found when La Niña conditions dominated, together with low oxygen concentrations. Samples collected within the oxygen minimum zone (65 m depth) showed the lowest values for the water column and the lowest seasonal variations. After the evident decline coincident with El Niño 2006, the abundance and biochemical quality (high protein and lipid contents) of seston recovered earlier in the surface layer (upper 15 m) than at other depths.     

Quantitative Pollution Spill Risk Assessment: Using A Gis-Based System

Federal and State agencies have recently advocated risk-based analysis as a mechanism for advancing regulatory reform and safety determination in marine systems. the present investigation promotes this objective through the development of risk-based environmental planning strategies for oil spill contingency plans. This alternative approach to contingency planning departs from conventional methodology by employing quantitative risk assessment methods to identify hazardous oil spill zones and sensitive environmental areas, R_o and R_e respectively. the product of this conversion is referenced on a single “Risk” layer within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework allowing coastal managers to evaluate natural resource data with associated elements of oil spill risk. As a new tool for coastal pollution management, risk-based environmental planning strategies have shown potential for evolving more efficient oil spill contingency plans.