Modeling patterns of breakdown (or archetypes) of human and organizational processes in accidents using system dynamics

Systems approaches to safety have received growing attention in modern accident investigation techniques (e.g., STAMP, Accimap) with the emphasis shifted to the organizational dynamics (or archetypes) that may lead to an erosion of defenses and a drift out of the safety margins. Although the literature contains many applications of archetypes and system dynamics to safety, this richness comes at a cost of learning. It has become very difficult for safety practitioners to integrate the diverse studies of system dynamics with their diverging models. To provide a practical tool of system dynamics in accident investigation, this article reviews earlier studies and integrates them as a classification of patterns of breakdown (or archetypes) of both human and organizational processes on the basis of two control models, that is, the Extended Control Model (ECOM) and the Viable System Model (VSM). In this article, archetypes are represented as variants of two generic templates of performance which exploit many elements of complexity theory and system control. Apart from providing a practical tool to safety practitioners to access the literature on archetypes, the generic templates of ECOM and VSM can be used in building simulators of individual and organizational processes for risk analysis.     

Occupational Safety Culture Index (OSCI)——measuring the community and employees awareness,attitude and knowledge towards workplace safety and health in Hong Kong SAR

Promoting occupational safety and health in Hong Kong,Special Administrative Region of China is an important and ongoing mission. As the major organization with statutory responsibilities,the Occupational Safety and Health Council understand the importance to strengthen and cultivate our safety culture. It is widely believed that numbers of occupational related diseases and injuries could be prevented with the improvement of the awareness and attitudes of the employees and the public. Therefore,a comprehensive and in-depth study to monitor the occupational health and safety level and status of the community and working population is needed. Objectives: Our Council has developed the Occupational Safety Culture Index ( OSCI) to measure the current level of community and workplace safety and health awareness,knowledge and attitude. Benchmarking measures of the key safety performance indicators are to be derived thereof. Methods: A territory-wide random telephone survey was conducted to assess the community and employees’awareness,attitude and knowledge in 2008. A structured questionnaire was designed with the content validity and reliability assessed before the survey administration. A series of quality control approaches were also applied to assure the quality of the fieldwork and the reliability of the data. Results: 1,531 eligible participants’data were collected and computed into 2 types of composite indices,Occupational Safety Culture Index ( Community) ( OSCIC) and Occupational Safety Culture Index (Workplace) (OSCIW) . With the maximum score of index at 100,the overall score of OSCIC is 66. 9 and the OSCIW is 61. 3 in Hong Kong. Achievements: OSCI served as an effective management tool to measure the safety culture in Hong Kong. With a representative sample and high quality study control and validated assessment approaches,the OSCI and the sub-indices are reliable indicators to assess the effectiveness of safety culture enhancement strategy and the OSH intervention measures.     

Operational Atmospheric Modeling System CARIS for Effective Emergency Response Associated with Hazardous Chemical Releases in Korea

The Chemical Accidents Response Information System (CARIS) was developed at the Center for Chemical Safety Management in South Korea in order to track and predict the dispersion of hazardous chemicals in the case of an accident or terrorist attack involving chemical companies. The main objective of CARIS is to facilitate an efficient emergency response to hazardous chemical accidents by rapidly providing key information in the decision-making process. In particular, the atmospheric modeling system implemented in CARIS, which is composed of a real-time numerical weather forecasting model and an air pollution dispersion model, can be used as a tool to forecast concentrations and to provide a wide range of assessments associated with various hazardous chemicals in real time.This article introduces the components of CARIS and describes its operational modeling system. Some examples of the operational modeling system and its use for emergency preparedness are presented and discussed. Finally, this article evaluates the current numerical weather prediction model for Korea.Published online     

安全系统思想

全国各类意外伤亡事故频发 ,安全生产形势十分严峻。安全生产的目的就是要预防和控制各类事故的发生 ,保护人民生命安全和社会财产安全。笔者认为 ,要做好安全生产工作 ,必须要有安全系统思想 ,运用系统工程的思想 ,去组织管理安全生产各个要素的发展变化 ,从而对事故进行预防和控制 ,安全生产系统是一个动态的系统工程。企业安全生产是一个大的系统链 ,这个链上的要素是很复杂的。安全系统归纳起来有三大子系统 ,即政府安全系统、企业安全系统、社会安全信息系统。子系统又由若干分系统组成 ,如安全管理系统、工艺安全系统等 ,每个分系统可建立自成体系的安全模型 ,将各自的安全要素统一在一个模型中 ,采用安全系统工程的方法 ,就可能预防和控制事故的发生。     

大型游艺机——过山车的安全性分析

研究基于虚拟样机技术的过山车的安全性问题,旨在解决传统设计的弊端,有效降低设计成本,提高过山车的安全性能。在ADAMS软件中建立过山车的虚拟样机模型。研究轨道圆环直径、车厢重量、制动力对过山车安全性能的影响,获得以上各参数的合理范围,使车厢连接副受力状况与加速度得到改善,制动力精确性得到提高。为探索运动类特种设备———过山车的安全保障技术提供了新途径。     

基于全球定位系统(GPS)的电动车辆实时监控系统设计

电动汽车以其良好的环保效应和灵活多样的能源利用形式,已成为国际社会普遍公认的汽车工业的重要发展方向之一,作为凸显可持续发展理念和国家科技产业实力的窗口,电动汽车的规模化应用将成为彰显2008北京“绿色奥运、科技奥运”主题的鲜明标志。为确保电动汽车奥运应用的安全性与可靠性,笔者提出了基于GPS的电动车辆实时监控系统的总体设计。该系统由车载信息采集终端(OBICT)、车辆运行监控(VOP)和无线通讯网络(WCN)3个子系统构成,并能对电动汽车运行中的电池及关键部件工作状态、车辆位置等数据进行实时采集与传输。在给出系统总体结构设计的基础上,对该车载信息采集终端、车辆运行监控子系统的数据流程进行分析,并提出了相应的软/硬件架构技术、设计方法以及实现的功能。     

特种劳动防护用品安全标识监管与防伪系统的开发及应用

本系统将特种劳动防护用品在日常管理过程中出现的大量繁杂多变的信息转变为数字信息数据，并建立适当的数学模型，由计算机对模型进行综合分析处理，同时显示结果，从而实现特种劳动防护用品的数字化管理，实现产品的真伪辨别和产品质量的责任追溯。     

GIS‐BASED WATER QUALITY MODELING IN THE SANDUSKY WATERSHED,OHIO, USA1

ABSTRACT: This study focused on the Sandusky Watershed (SW) in Ohio, located within the Great Lakes Basin, with emphasis on two of its subwatersheds, namely Honey Creek (HC) and Rock Creek (RC). The goal was to assess the capabilities of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate suspended sediment (SS), phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) yield in the SW that contribute major sediment and nutrient loads into Lake Erie. The model was calibrated using water flow and water quality parameters for water years 1998 to 1999 and validated model simulations covering the period of water years 2000 to 2001 for monthly conditions. The validation of SS showed correlation coefficients of 0.29 (SW), 0.75 (HC) and 0.69 (RC). Correlation coefficients for P were 0.68 (SW), 0.78 (HC) and 0.37 (RC); for N0₂‐N 0.84 (HC) and 0.38 (RC); for N0₃‐N 0.27 (HC) and 0.76 (RC); for NH₃‐N 0.57 (SW), 0.49 (HC), and 0.13 (RC). In addition, mean errors, root mean square errors, Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients, and graphs were used to compare simulated to measured data. Simulation success was variable with poor and good simulations, but in most cases, simulated water quality values followed the trend of measured data except for extreme (or intense) rainfall/runoff events. Reviews of 17 applications indicated that the SWAT is suitable for long term continuous simulations but not for storm events. A spatially distributed modeling approach generated maps showing the spatial distribution of SS, P, and N for each simulation element across the Sandusky Watershed.     

空间信息技术在防震减灾工作中的作用

我国是个地震多发国家，地震损失严重。在防震减灾研究中，迫切要求引进先进的科学技术手段，用高新技术推动防震减灾工作的发展。目前遥感技术、地理信息系统和全球定位系统（合称3S）得到了快速发展，以3S技术为主要框架的空间信息技术在防震减灾领域得到了广泛的应用。本文重点阐述了空间信息技术在防震减灾中的作用，并对空间信息技术在防震减灾中的应用趋势作出展望。