航空公司安全评估理论与实践

分析了民航安全的特性;基于“人、机、环境”系统工程理论,研究了民航安全评估的理论和方法;结合中国民航实际,发展了重视人的因素和管理因素的航空公司安全评估系统,该评估系统具有客观评估安全形势、发现薄弱环节和引导航空公司安全行为的功能;最后给出了航空公司安全评估实例。     

地震灾害管理的系统性分析

运用系统学方法，综合分析了我国地震灾害管理系统及系统的内部关系与特征．对促进该系统的优化与进步，推动防震减灾事业的发展提出了相应的建议与对策．     

Validation of not-at-fault driver representativeness assumption for quasi-induced exposure using U.S. national traffic databases

Introduction:The quasi-induced exposure (QIE) method has been widely implemented into traffic safety research. One of the key assumptions of QIE method is that not-at-fault drivers represent the driving population at the time of a crash. Recent studies have validated the QIE representative assumption using not-at-fault drivers from three-or-more vehicle crashes (excluding the first not-at-fault drivers; D3_other) as the reference group in single state crash databases. However, it is unclear if the QIE representativeness assumption is valid on a national scale and is a representative sample of driving population in the United States. The aims of this study were to assess the QIE representativeness assumption on a national scale and to evaluate if D3_other could serve as a representative sample of the U.S. driving population. Method: Using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the National Occupant Protection Use Survey (NOPUS), distributions of driver gender, age, vehicle type, time, and roadway type among the not-at-fault drivers in clean two-vehicle crashes, the first not-at-fault drivers in three-or-more-vehicle crashes, and the remaining not-at-fault drivers in three-or-more vehicle crashes were compared to the driver population observed in NOPUS. Results: The results showed that with respect to driver gender, vehicle type, time, and roadway type, drivers among D3_other did not show statistical significant difference from NOPUS observations. The age distribution of D3_other driver was not practically different to NOPUS observations. Conclusions: Overall, we conclude that D3_other drivers in FARS represents the driving population at the time of the crash. Practical applications: Our study provides a solid foundation for future studies to utilize D3_other as the reference group to validate the QIE representativeness assumption and has potential to increase the generalizability of future FARS studies.     

河南省一次PM2.5污染过程区域性影响数值模拟

为了研究区域输送对河南省PM_2.5重污染的影响,利用中国科学院大气物理研究所自主研发的NAQPMS(嵌套网格空气质量预报)模式模拟了河南省2014年1月12─19日的一次污染事件. 污染期间,河南省所有城市ρ(PM_2.5)小时均值最大值均超过250 μg/m3,达到了严重污染水平. 利用基于NAQPMS的污染源来源追踪方法评估了本地排放和区域输送的影响. 结果表明:研究期间,本地排放和区域输送对河南省ρ(PM_2.5)的平均贡献率分别达到了50.6%和49.4%. 在区域输送方面,安徽省对河南省ρ(PM_2.5)的贡献率(10.0%)最高,山西省(9.2%)、陕西省(8.5%)次之,河北省(仅2.1%)最低. 分地区来看,河南省中部地区以本省累积(贡献率为61.4%,下同)为主,东部地区以安徽省(30.4%)输送为主,南部地区以本省累积(45.1%)、湖北省(14.1%)及安徽省 (13.7%)输送为主,西部地区以陕西省(35.4%)输送为主,北部地区则主要以本省累积(58.1%)及山西省(20.7%)输送为主. 研究表明,尽管河南省各地区同时出现高污染,但其来源不同,有必要采取区域联防联控措施.      

Correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists in single-vehicle crashes

Objectives: In order to improve motorcycle safety, this article examines the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists, under multiple precrash conditions. Method: Ten-year crash data for single-vehicle motorcycle crashes from the General Estimates Systems (GES) were analyzed, using partial proportional odds models (i.e., generalized ordered logit models). Results: The modeling results show that “braking (no lock-up)” is associated with a higher probability of increased severity, whereas “braking (lock-up)” is associated with a higher probability of decreased severity, under all precrash conditions. “Steering” is associated with a higher probability of reduced injury severity when other vehicles are encroaching, whereas it is correlated with high injury severity under other conditions. “Braking and steering” is significantly associated with a higher probability of low severity under “animal encounter and object presence,” whereas it is surprisingly correlated with high injury severity when motorcycles are traveling off the edge of the road. The results also show that a large number of motorcyclists did not perform any crash avoidance maneuvers or conducted crash avoidance maneuvers that are significantly associated with high injury severity. Conclusions: In general, this study suggests that precrash maneuvers are an important factor associated with motorcyclists' injury severity. To improve motorcycle safety, training/educational programs should be considered to improve safety awareness and adjust driving habits of motorcyclists. Antilock brakes and such systems are also promising, because they could effectively prevent brake lock-up and assist motorcyclists in maneuvering during critical conditions. This study also provides valuable information for the design of motorcycle training curriculum.     

云南中甸县Cu矿区土壤重金属污染评价

通过对矿区土壤中重金属元素Cd、Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn、As、Hg含量的测定,运用单项污染指数法、内梅罗综合污染指数法评价了其污染现状。对位于云南中甸县雪鸡坪、春都矿区土壤重金属污染状况进行了调查研究。结果表明:矿区土壤中重金属元素污染程度有差异,从单向污染指数来看Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Zn等重金属元素污染水平为清洁。As单项污染指数变化范围为0.49~0.72,污染等级为警戒级。春都矿区中Pb的污染程度较严重,其单项污染指数大于1,已达到轻度污染水平;从内梅罗污染指数来看:春都矿区(p_n=1.12)雪鸡坪矿区(p_n=0.49),春都矿区土壤开始受到轻度污染,雪鸡坪矿区土壤为安全状态。     

生态工业园决策支持系统的开发

计算机决策支持系统已经比较成熟地应用于许多行业,但在生态工业园建设管理中尚未得到应用。本文结合生态工业园建设管理的特点,分析了生态工业园决策支持系统开发的功能要求,提出了一种基于GIS、数据仓库、数据挖掘以及联机分析技术,并结合专家系统的生态工业园智能决策支持系统的框架,探讨了决策支持系统在生态工业园建设管理中的发展前景。     

层次分析法在矿山水环境质量评价中的应用

层次分析法是一种定性和定量相结合的、系统化、层次化的分析方法,是决策者按照人类决策过程的“分解-判断-综合”的思想特点,对复杂系统的决策思维过程模型化、数量化的过程。通过分析和研究,从水质和水量两方面入手,建立了矿山水环境质量评价指标体系,应用层次分析法将各层次权重综合,计算出各层次要素对总目标的组合权重,最终确定影响矿山水环境的主要因素为矿化度、pH值、矿山疏排水量以及有机污染指标。     

论环境—经济系统协调度

以持续发展理论为核心，以环境－经济系统为研究对象，借助系统工程多目标技术和协同论的观点，建立了环境－经济系统协调度模型。模型分为３个部分，功效函数，协调度函数和环境－经济系统指标体系。模型正确与否关键在于功效函数中的上下限值和指标体系中指标的选取，这两项因子的确定可以参照应用地区的实际情况和因子数据的可获得性来确定，最后应用此模型分析了某市环境－经济系统协调度现状及变化趋势。     

浙江省循环经济发展评价指标体系研究

近年来能源、土地及水资源短缺给浙江经济发展带来了极大的挑战,发展循环经济是实现可持续发展的重要途径.以循环经济为指导,结合浙江省循环经济发展现状,从减量化、资源化、无害化及社会经济发展四个控制层面构建浙江省循环经济发展指标体系,运用层次分析法对浙江省近8年的循环经济发展状况进行综合评价,旨在为浙江循环经济发展重点及方向提供科学依据.评价结果表明,浙江省循环经济发展水平逐年提高,呈良好发展趋势.