响应面法优化海洋细菌MP-2酯酶发酵条件

采用响应面法(Response surfsce methodology)对海洋细菌MP-2酯酶的发酵条件进行了优化.首先采用了Placken-Burman方法对影响酯酶发酵的因素进行评价,筛选出了3个显著因素为豆饼粉、花生粕和种龄,并利用DesignExpert 7.0.3软件完成RSM法对显著性因素的进一步优化从而确定最佳条件.当花生粕0.9%;豆饼粉2.29%;接种量5·98%时,此时预测的最大酯酶活力为334.46 U/mL.在最佳发酵条件下,优化后该酯酶活力由258.8 U/mL提高到318.2 U/mL.实际酶活力达到理论预测值的95%,十分接近.     

How to treat expert judgment? With certainty it contains uncertainty!

To be acceptably safe one must identify the risks one is exposed to and decide what risk reducing measures are required. It is uncertain whether the threat really will materialize, but determining the size and probability of the risk is also full of uncertainty. When performing an analysis and preparing for decision making under uncertainty, quite frequently failure rate data, information on consequence severity or on a probability value, yes, even on the possibility that an event can or cannot occur, is lacking. In those cases, a possible way and sometimes the only way to proceed is to revert to expert judgment. Even in case historical data is available, an expert can be asked whether and to what extent such data still hold in the current situation.Anyhow, expert elicitation comes with an uncertainty depending on the expert's reliability, which becomes very visible when two or more experts give different answers or even conflicting answers. This is not a new problem, and very bright minds have thought how to tackle this in a rational and objective way. But so far, however, the topic has not been given much attention in daily process safety and risk assessment practice. Therefore, this paper has a review and applied character and will present various approaches with detailed explanation and examples.     

Intertidal Zone Management in the Western Indian Ocean: Assessing Current Status and Future Possibilities Using Expert Opinions

This expert opinion study examined the current status of the intertidal zone in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) and ranked and discussed future management approaches. Information was gathered from scientists, practitioners, and managers active in the WIO region through a questionnaire and a workshop. The experts stated that the productive intertidal environment is highly valuable for reasons such as recreation, erosion protection, and provision of edible invertebrates and fish. Several anthropogenic pressures were identified, including pollution, harbor activities, overexploitation, and climate change. The experts considered the WIO intertidal zone as generally understudied, undermanaged, and with poor or no monitoring. The most important management strategies according to the expert opinions are to develop and involve local people in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM), to increase knowledge on species–environment relationships, and to develop awareness campaigns and education programs. To improve coastal environmental management and conservation, we argue that the intertidal zone should be treated as one organizational management unit within the larger framework of ICZM.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0465-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Authority Pooling and Regional Organic Agriculture Standard-Setting: Evidence from East Africa

A key characteristic of global organic agriculture governance through standards is the coexistence of regulatory fragmentation and regional integration. To reduce barriers to organic trade, especially for market participants from developing countries, international and transnational entrepreneurs increasingly promote the setting of organic agriculture standards (OAS) in different world regions, for example, in East Africa, the Pacific, or Asia. Although scholars from different disciplines have done a lot of research on the role of standards in global governance, we still know little about why and how regional standard-setting processes evolve. Applying findings from regime analysis, entrepreneurship, and political authority, the article introduces the concept of authority pooling. It argues that legal, moral, and technical authority sources interact in a blurred functional division of labour between the public and the private sector in standard-setting. The article presents results from a within-case study of the development of the East African Organic Products Standard using the process-tracing method. It detects the underlying causal mechanism by which international and transnational entrepreneurs pooled different authority sources and, thus, significantly influenced political actors in East Africa to set the first regional OAS in the developing world.     

Salem Revisited: Updating the MTBE Controversy

I am wronged. It is a shameful thing that you should mind these folks that are out of their wits.* *Statement of Martha Carrier (excerpt), hanged as a witch on 19 August, 1692 in Salem, Massachusetts. In all, 20 innocent persons were executed in 1692 as a result of the hysteria attending the Salem witch trials. After the executions, the court was prohibited from "reliance on spectral and intangible evidence". No prosecutions were successful thereafter. See generally, The Salem Witch Trials 1692: A Chronology of Events , at www.salemweb.com/memorial This article provides background information regarding the emerging controversies involving methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE) and litigation involving leaking underground storage tanks (USTs) in general. It examines (1) the administrative, legislative and litigation history of MTBE in the context of the Clear Air Act and state environmental statues; (2) the importance of applicable RCRA (Resource Conservation and Recovery Act) deadlines regarding UST compliance in these cases; (3) the question of MTBE toxicity for personal injury claims; and (4) the scope of damages available in cases filed by plaintiffs who are not physically impacted by contamination. The authors conclude that the MTBE controversy does not appear to be a legitimate public health or environmental crisis, but rather is yet another speculative product of the American legal industry.     

A novel tool for Bayesian reliability analysis using AHP as a framework for prior elicitation

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a powerful and popular technique to support risk-based decisions. Unfortunately, QRAs are often hampered by significant uncertainty in the frequency of failure estimation for physical assets. This uncertainty is largely due to lack of quality failure data in published sources. The failure data may be limited, incompatible and/or outdated. Consequently, there is a need for robust methods and tools that can incorporate all available information to facilitate reliability analysis of critical assets such as pipelines, pressure vessels, rotating equipment, etc. This paper presents a novel practical approach that can be used to help overcome data scarcity issues in reliability analysis. A Bayesian framework is implemented to cohesively integrate objective data with expert opinion with the aim toward deriving time to failure distributions for physical assets. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is utilized to aggregate time to failure estimates from multiple experts to minimize biases and address inconsistencies in their estimates. These estimates are summarized in the form of informative priors that are implemented in a Bayesian update procedure for the Weibull distribution. The flexibility of the proposed methodology allows for efficiently dealing with data limitations. Application of the proposed approach is illustrated using a case study.     

Learning from the Bhopal disaster to improve process safety management in Singapore

The Singapore process industry is mainly made up of chemical and energy companies such as Mitsui Chemicals, Clariant, Exxon Mobil, Shell, Sumitomo, Petrochemical Corporation of Singapore and Infineum. Majority of these companies are located on Jurong Island, southwest of Singapore. Jurong Island houses nearly 100 leading petroleum, petrochemicals and specialty chemicals companies and the total investment is about S$42 billion in total. With a land surface area of only 716 km² and a high concentration of process plants, the Singapore government places strong emphasis on safety and risk management. In this paper, four process industry veterans from the government, academic and private sectors were interviewed. Through the interviews, the authors sought to understand the veterans’ perspectives on lessons that the Singapore process industry should learn from the Bhopal disaster. The veterans expanded their thoughts beyond the Bhopal disaster and provided many insights and suggestions critical to process safety management in Singapore and other countries. A systemic model of process safety management was derived from the interviews and key elements of operational process safety management were identified. In addition, a research agenda was identified based on the inputs from the veterans.     

Using expert judgments to understand spatial patterns of forest-based camping: a values-at-risk application

Fire management agencies in Canada are mandated with protecting multiple forest values from wildfire. Deciding where to reduce fire hazard and how to allocate resources and fire suppression efforts requires an understanding of the values-at-risk from wildfire. The protection of recreation infrastructure is often assumed to provide adequate protection of recreation values. We use an expert judgment approach to provide a spatial distribution of recreation values-at-risk in the forested eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain region of Alberta, Canada. Data were collected in 2004 from 11 land managers responsible for public lands management and wildfire prevention in the region. Expert assessments showed that recreation values were not confined to areas with publicly funded infrastructure. Exploratory spatial analysis of the ratings identified hotspots and cold spots of recreation activity. Maps resulting from these efforts will provide guidance to fire managers in the prioritization of fire management activities.     

森林火灾防治决策专家系统的研究与实现

笔者比较系统地收集、研究了林火专家多年积累的理论、经验和解决问题的方法以及各种预测模型、模型的适应条件和使用规则等 ,利用人工智能和COM组件技术 ,通过模型技术和专家系统技术的有机结合 ,建立了基于网络的森林火灾防治决策专家系统。实现了森林火灾从火灾预测、林火扑救决策、清理火场、看守火场到最后的损失评估全过程的推理辅助决策 ;实现了整个决策过程中预测模型和预测结果随外界条件的突变而进行的实时修正 ,从而真正实现了森林火灾管理各个阶段的实时性、准确性和正确性。     

箱体零件CAPP专家系统知识表达的研究

结合箱体零件对人工智能专家系统在自动工艺设计中的应用进行了一定的研究,提出了箱体零件CAPP专家系统的总体构思、基于特征的信息描述方法、工艺知识的表达和推理方法.