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1.
洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。 相似文献
2.
Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations
to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the
effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to
the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other
hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the
time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects.
Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations
observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic
density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and
climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February
2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied.
One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong
persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons
is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological
variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial
dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter.
The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O3 and PM to examine underlying trends.
Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model
yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval
for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in
trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates
out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results
in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal
variations.
Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the
analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological
conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions.
There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle
and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic
density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions
which is a direct consequence of the holiday period.
Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend
results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect
of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering
the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an
estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions.
Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant
reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site
with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes
in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability 相似文献
3.
María L. Pignata Martha S. Cañas Hebe A. Carreras Liliana Orellana 《Environmental management》1997,21(5):793-801
Ligustrum lucidum Ait. f. tricolor (Rehd.) Rehd. in relation to atmospheric pollutants in Córdoba city, Argentina. The study area receives
regional pollutants and was categorized taking into account traffic level, industrial density, type of industry, location
of the sample point in relation to the street corner, treeless condition, and topographic level. Dried weight/fresh weight
ratio (DW/FW) and specific leaf area (SLA) were calculated, and concentrations of chlorophylls, carotenoids, total sulfur,
soluble proteins, malondialdehyde (MDA), and hydroperoxy conjugated dienes (HPCD) were determined in leaf samples. Sulfur
content correlates positively with traffic density and SLA correlates negatively with some combinations of the categorical
variables; MDA correlates positively with topographic level and total protein concentration correlates negatively with treeless
condition. On the basis of our results, traffic, location of trees, type of industry, situation of a tree with respect to
others, and topographic level are the environmental variables to bear in mind when selecting analogous sampling points in
a passive monitoring program. An approximation to predict tree injury may be obtained by measuring DW/FW ratio, proteins,
pigments, HPCD, and MDA as they are responsible for the major variability of data. 相似文献
4.
Bunge Michael Khknen Mika A. Rmisch Winfried Opel Matthias Vogler Susanne Walkow Fred Salkinoja-Salonen Mirja Lechner Ute 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2007,14(1):3-10
Background, Aims and Scope Sediments of the Spittelwasser creek are highly polluted with organic compounds and heavy metals due to the discharge of untreated
waste waters from the industrial region of Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany over the course of more than one century. However, relatively
few data have been published about the chloroorganic contamination of the sediment. This paper reports on the content of different
(chloro)organic compounds with special emphasis on polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), and chlorobenzenes. Existing concepts for the remediation of Spittelwasser sediment include
the investigation of natural attenuation processes, which largely depend on the presence of an intact microbial food web.
In order to gain more insight in terms of biological activity, we analyzed the capacity of sediment microflora to degrade
organic matter by measuring the activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes involved in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon,
nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur. Furthermore, the detection of physiologically active bacteria in the sediment, particularly
of those known for their capability to reductively dehalogenate organochlorine compounds, illustrates the potential for intrinsic
bioremediation processes.
Methods PCDD/F and chlorobenzenes were analyzed by gas chromatography(GC)/mass spectrometry and GC/flame ionization detection, respectively.
The activities of hydrolytic enzymes were determined from freshly sampled sediment layers using 4-methylumbelliferyl (MUF)
or 7-amino-4-methylcoumarin-conjugated model compounds and kinetic fluorescence measurements. Physiologically active bacteria
from different sediment layers were microscopically visualized by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Specific bacteria were identified by 16S rRNA gene amplification and sequencing.
Results and Discussion The PCDD/F congener profile was dominated by dibenzofurans. In addition, the presence of specific tetra and pentachlorinated
dibenzofurans supported the assumption that extensive magnesium production was one possible source for the high contamination.
A range of other chloroorganic compounds, including several isomers of chlorobenzenes, hexachlorocyclohexane and 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis
(p-chloro-phenyl)ethane (DDT), was present in the sediment. Activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes showed a strong
decrease in those sediment layers that were characterized by high contents of absorbable organic halogen (AOX), indicating
disturbed organic matter decay. Interestingly, an abnormal increase of cellulolytic enzyme activities below the organochlorine-rich
layers was observed, possibly caused by residual cellulose from discharges of sulfite pulping wastes. FISH revealed physiologically
active bacteria in most sediment layers from the surface down to the depth of about 60 cm, including members of Desulfitobacterium (D.) and Sulfurospirillum. The presence of D. dehalogenans was confirmed by its partial 16S rRNA gene sequence.
Conclusions Results of chemical sediment analyses demonstrated high loads of organochlorine compounds, particularly of PCDD/F. Several
years after stopping the waste water discharge to Spittelwasser creek, this sediment remains a main source for pollution of
the downstream river system by way of the ongoing mobilization of sediment during high floods. As indicated by our enzyme
activity measurements, the decomposition potential for organic matter is low in organochlorine-rich sediment layers. In contrast,
the comparably higher enzyme activities in less organochlorine-polluted sediment layers as well as the presence of physiologically
active bacteria suggest a considerable potential for natural attenuation.
Recommendations and Perspectives From our data we strongly recommend to explore the degradative capacity of sediment microorganisms and the limits for in situ activity towards specific sediment pollutants in more detail. This will give a sound basis for the integration of bioremediation
approaches into general concepts to reduce the risk that permanently radiates from this highly contaminated sediment.
Submission Editor: Dr. Henner Hollert (Henner.Hollert@urz.uniheidelberg.de) 相似文献
5.
Fractionation of Cu, Pb and Zn in certified reference soils SRM 2710 and SRM 2711 using the optimized BCR sequential extraction procedure 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Sequential extraction of metals from solid media is a common analytical tool used in environmental and exploration geochemistry. A number of procedures exist, but without harmonization and standardization, meaningful comparisons are tenuous without baseline data. A newly developed, standardized sequential extraction procedure (optimized BCR) was applied to two contaminated certified reference soils from Montana, US (SRM 2710 and SRM 2711) for Cu, Pb and Zn. Four operationally defined fractions were isolated, acid extractable, reducible, oxidizable, and residual (by aqua regia). Fraction-specific concentrations, percentages and recoveries for Cu, Pb and Zn were used to explore differences between the optimized BCR procedure and three other sequential extraction schemes with published data for SRM 2710 and 2711 (i.e. Tessier scheme, Geological Survey of Canada scheme and the original BCR scheme). Results indicate significant differences between the four schemes, even for schemes that are closely associated (i.e. the original and optimized BCR schemes). Order-of-magnitude fraction-specific concentration differences were observed, especially for Pb in the reducible fraction. Differences between schemes are worrisome because trends varied between metals, between fractions and between reference soils. These data reinforce the need for increased adoption of standardized sequential extraction procedures and further examination of different solid media. 相似文献
6.
战略环境评价的工作程序 总被引:18,自引:1,他引:18
介绍了战略环境评价(法规、政策、计划和规划层次)工作程序的三个环节:评价方案的制定、评价实施和评价总结。并提出了战略环境评价指标体系制定的原则、战略环境评价的具体步骤及战略环境评价报告书的基本内容。 相似文献
7.
Mary C. Phelan Ph.D. Robert A. Saul Thompson A. Gailey Jr Steven A. Skinner 《黑龙江环境通报》1995,15(3):274-277
Mosaicism for the Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome, del(4)(p16), is extremely rare and has not been reported in association with a numerical chromosome abnormality. We report the prenatal diagnosis of mosaic del(4)(p16) and non-mosaic trisomy 21 in a 16-week female fetus. The pregnancy ended in spontaneous abortion at 34 weeks secondary to fetal demise. The fetus had features of both 4p – and trisomy 21. 相似文献
8.
战略环境评价及其应用初探 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
概述了战略环境价的概念、产生原因、研究现状及其工作程序,结合川南矿肥工程项目对它进行了应用初探,提出了计划、规划层次SEA的方法和指标,并对我国环评工作提出了建议。 相似文献
9.
塔希提岛火山岩属典型的大洋岛屿玄武岩(OIB)。该岛是法属波利尼西亚群岛中社会群岛链之一部分,火山活动可分三期:早期(1.7—1.3Ma),中期(1.3—0.6Ma)和晚期(0.6—0.3Ma)。早期火山岩兼有碱性和拉斑系列岩石,包括苦橄玄武岩、碱性玄武岩、拉斑玄武岩及少量玄武安山岩;中期火山岩主要有粗面玄武岩—粗面岩、碱性玄武岩和少量碧玄岩;晚期则以碧玄岩为主,并有部分碱玄岩出现。火山岩的这种岩性变化表明其岩浆由早到晚从富镁、硅弱不饱和向富碱和硅强烈不饱和演化。 社会群岛火山链的火山活动以平均11cm/a的速率从西北向东南迁移,与MORB相比,所有塔希提的岩石皆富大离子亲石元素并有较高的~(87)Sr/~(66)Sr比值,这一特征可能与其特殊的源区成分有关,即富集的地幔热柱或大洋岩石圈。早期岩石是地幔热柱和少量洋壳的部分熔融产物的混合体,故既有拉斑系列又有碱性系列。随着火山活动远离存在热柱的热点区域,洋壳部分熔融的程度逐渐降低,因而其产生的熔融体也越来越富碱,~(87)Sr/~(66)Sr比值也相应有所降低。 相似文献
10.
Fetal aspartylglucosaminuria (AGU) was studied during the first trimester of pregnancy in six at-risk pregnancies using chorionic villus samples. The activity of aspartylglucosaminidase (AGA) was high in five cases, indicating an unaffected fetus. This was confirmed through delivery of healthy newborns with a normal pattern of urinary oligosaccharides. Low enzyme activity in an uncultured biopsy specimen and in cultured amniotic fluid cells in one case demonstrated that the fetus was affected. The pregnancy was terminated and the prenatal diagnosis was confirmed by showing reduced AGA activity in cultured fibroblasts of the fetus. 相似文献