Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.     

Assessing the Effects of Alternative Setback Channel Constraint Scenarios Employing a River Meander Migration Model

River channel migration and cutoff events within large river riparian corridors create heterogeneous and biologically diverse landscapes. However, channel stabilization (riprap and levees) impede the formation and maintenance of riparian areas. These impacts can be mitigated by setting channel constraints away from the channel. Using a meander migration model to measure land affected, we examined the relationship between setback distance and riparian and off-channel aquatic habitat formation on a 28-km reach of the Sacramento River, California, USA. We simulated 100 years of channel migration and cutoff events using 11 setback scenarios: 1 with existing riprap and 10 assuming setback constraints from about 0.5 to 4 bankfull channel widths (bankfull width: 235 m) from the channel. The percentage of land reworked by the river in 100 years relative to current (riprap) conditions ranged from 172% for the 100-m constraint setback scenario to 790% for the 800-m scenario. Three basic patterns occur as the setback distance increases due to different migration and cutoff dynamics: complete restriction of cutoffs, partial restriction of cutoffs, and no restriction of cutoffs. Complete cutoff restriction occurred at distances less than about one bankfull channel width (235 m), and no cutoff restriction occurred at distances greater than about three bankfull widths (∼700 m). Managing for point bars alone allows the setbacks to be narrower than managing for cutoffs and aquatic habitat. Results suggest that site-specific “restriction of cutoff” thresholds can be identified to optimize habitat benefits versus cost of acquired land along rivers affected by migration processes.     

利用人工湿地系统深度处理城市污水尾水

利用垂直复合流模拟人工湿地系统对城市污水厂尾水进行深度处理实验研究,植物床选用美人蕉、菖蒲、茭草、芋头和象草混合栽种,采用石英砂为主体填料。实验研究表明:人工湿地系统在停留时间为24h,水力负荷为0.4m3(m2·d)的运行条件处理效果较佳,在此条件下连续稳定运行10个月,处理后的尾水主要指标达到(GBT189212002)标准。     

黄土高原能源富集区水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全时空耦合协调关系分析——以榆阳区为例

黄土高原能源富集区是我国重要的能源基地和粮食主产区,其水资源匮乏使区域水—能源—粮食纽带系统可持续发展面临严峻挑战。为研究黄土高原能源富集区能源、粮食与水资源之间协调发展状况,本研究以水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全为核心,通过构建水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全评价指标体系,采用TOPSIS模型和耦合协调度模型,分析了典型案例地榆林市及榆阳区水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全水平及其耦合协调关联特征。结果表明：从水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合协调关系来看,榆林市各区县水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合度整体较高且近年来呈现缓慢下降趋势,耦合协调度呈现“北高南低”格局且近年来表现出轻微下降趋势。从榆阳区层面来看,榆阳区水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合度较高,耦合协调度呈现由中度协调向优质协调发展态势,水资源系统制约水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全发展,能源子系统波动性较强。为协调能源富集区水—能源—粮食纽带系统可持续发展,政府应健全跨部门协调机制,因地制宜、合理规划产业布局,同时构建节约高效的资源管理体系,提升资源使用效率。     

上海市“十四五”规划绿色发展驱动因素研究

本文首次以上海市“十四五”规划的视角,使用系统动力学方法研究上海市的绿色发展因素。首先确定了由经济、社会、环境、资源四个子系统交叉融合而构成上海市绿色发展系统,再基于系统动力学原理和上海市2012—2019年的数据构建上海市绿色发展模型,响应“十四五”规划在绿色发展方面设立的目标,构建多个未来发展情景并进行指标参数调控,依据各个情景的仿真结果,分析并总结了“十四五”规划背景下上海市的绿色发展特点。研究结果表明,影响绿色发展的关键因素由主到次依次为生态环境建设支出、研发支出、产业结构调整。相比于产业的投资结构调整,上海市对从业人员结构的调整可以高效平衡经济与环境的发展;加快科技创新可以在很大程度上抑制碳排放,从而快速实现上海市的“双碳”目标;针对化学污染物的治理,污染源防治不但十分有效,而且有利于持续性发展,这些措施应是上海市政府的首选。     

城市污泥-磷石膏陶粒的制备条件及性能分析

以城市污水处理厂剩余污泥和磷酸生产废渣磷石膏为原料制备多孔陶粒,考察不同配比、烧结温度及烧结时间对多孔陶粒堆积密度、吸水率及盐酸可溶率的影响。结果表明:在污泥与磷石膏混合比1∶4、烧结温度1 050℃、烧结时间15 min的条件下,可制得堆积密度为685.78 kg/m~3、吸水率27.34%、盐酸可溶率11.38%的陶粒,该陶粒内部含有丰富的膨胀气孔,可用作水处理滤料或建材骨料。     

基于可编辑VR实验平台的突发事件下跟随效应研究

建立了可编辑VR疏散动力学实验平台,并招募100名大学生开展地铁车厢内的虚拟实验,探究突发事件下的跟随效应。每次实验有一名实验人员和20名虚拟乘客(NPC)参与,共设置5个场景探究不同比例的运动NPC对参与者预动作行为和运动行为的影响。通过分析问卷、预动作时间、出门选择、运动距离等数据,发现在实验中存在跟随等待人群和跟随运动人群两种跟随效应,而人群的运动是更为强烈的信息,当等待和运动NPC占比从0%提升至50%,等待和运动参与者占比分别提高10%和60%。因此,在突发事件场景中,应及时对局部人群施加有效的同向引导,以提升整体疏散效率。     

火源位置对L型管廊电缆火灾影响规律的数值模拟研究

选取某城市L型综合管廊电缆舱为研究对象,采用FDS数值模拟软件研究了不同火源位置对L型管廊电缆火灾温度纵向衰减规律、烟气浓度分布规律及烟气危害性的影响。研究结果表明,L型廊道构型影响了不同火源位置的管廊电缆火灾最高温度纵向衰减的连续性,基于热边界层理论提出了适用于L型管廊的二维平面最高温度纵向衰减模型。基于峰宽时间计算了L型管廊火灾的烟气总危害性参数,不同火源位置的烟气危害性总在靠近管廊节点位置处最低。这些结果可对综合管廊的消防设计与火灾防控提供参考。     

二氧化氯对摇蚊幼虫的毒效试验及影响因素

以水厂原水为试验水样,研究了二氧化氯对摇蚊不同龄期幼虫的毒性效果（24 h）,并考察了温度和接触时间对二氧化氯毒性效果的影响.结果表明,二氧化氯对摇蚊幼虫具有极为显著的毒性作用,25℃时二氧化氯对4龄幼虫的24h半致死浓度（LC₅₀）为0 .41 mg/L.二氧化氯对摇蚊幼虫的毒力随幼虫龄期的增长而降低,1龄幼虫对二氧化氯最敏感,其中二氧化氯对4龄幼虫的LC₅₀是1龄幼虫的1 .78倍.二氧化氯的毒力在一定范围内符合正温度系数规律,二氧化氯对4龄幼虫的毒力在15～30℃范围内增加了2 .16倍.接触时间从12 h延长至24 h,二氧化氯对4龄幼虫的毒力增幅显著;当接触时间至36 h,与接触24 h相比毒力增幅不明显.     

阳离子型聚合物对低温低浊水的絮凝效果与形态学特性

采用微絮凝-深床直接过滤工艺,以西安市曲江水厂低温低浊水质为原水(水温低于10 ℃,初始浊度低于10NTU),投加阳离子型聚合物(简称CP)作主混凝剂或助凝剂,借助分形数学理论与图像分析技术,对滤料粒径、原水浊度、原水温度、药剂种类、聚合物分子量及投加量、混合强度等因素对处理效果的影响进行了研究,分析探讨了不同药剂处理低温低浊水的作用机理、絮凝形态学特征以及絮体结构的分形特性.结果表明,①当温度低于4 ℃、初始浊度小于4NTU时,不宜单独采用Al2(SO4)3或PAC作为絮凝剂;当温度为4～10 ℃、初始浊度小于10NTU时,如果只投加Al2(SO4)3或PAC作为絮凝剂,宜用细砂滤料过滤;低温低浊条件下,无机混凝剂形成的絮体粒径小、结构松散脆弱、有效质量密度低、沉速慢,但表征絮体分形特性的分维值较高.②CP作絮凝剂能显著改善低温低浊水的絮凝效果与过滤性能,但混合强度需增大,宜用粗砂滤料过滤;③单独用CP作絮凝剂时,宜投加分子量较低的弱阳性聚合物或投加低剂量较高分子量的强阳性聚合物;CP用作助凝剂时,能显著减少主混凝剂用量,但宜投加强阳性聚合物或增加弱阳性聚合物的剂量.④CP兼备电性中和与吸附架桥絮凝作用,能形成粒径较大、吸附性能与过滤性能良好的网状絮体构型,其有效质量密度高,产生的污泥量少,污泥沉降速度快,脱水效果好,但分维值低.⑤各种水处理药剂的处理效果为:Al2(SO4)3(或PAC) CP＞CP＞PAC＞Al2(SO4)3,这种差别由絮体的形态学特性与构型特征各异引起.