SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND HAZARDS MITIGATION IN THE UNITED STATES: DISASTERS BY DESIGN REVISITED

It has become clear that natural and related technological hazards and disasters are not problems that can be solved in isolation. The occurrence of disasters is a symptom of broader and more basic social problems. Since 1994, a team of over 100 expert academics and practitioners – including members of the private sector – have assessed, evaluated, and summarized knowledge about natural and technological hazards in the United States from the perspectives of the physical, natural, social, behavioral, and engineering sciences. The major thesis of the findings was losses from hazards and inability to comprehensively reduce losses of all types are the consequences of narrow and shortsighted development patterns, cultural premises, and attitudes toward the natural environment, science, and technology. To address these broad and basic problems, the study included proposals for ways in which people and the institutions of the United States can take responsibility for disaster losses, reduce future hazard losses, and link hazard mitigation to sustainable development.     

震后灾难心理及其救援对策研究

从心理学和行为学的角度审视了地震灾害带给灾区民众的悲伤、恐惧、忧愁、心慌、愤恨、犯罪等心理行为反应特征,认为必须加强地震灾害后的心理救援工作,对灾民的灾难心理进行干预和调控,在此基础上研究并提出了地震灾害心理救援的基本对策,以期灾难发生后能快速实施心理救援和救助,减少灾民的心理痛苦,尽快恢复社会秩序.     

环境灾害特点及其研究内容

对环境灾害的概念、特点、类型及主要研究内容进行了初步探讨。     

多灾种概念辨析及灾害事故关系研究综述

随着人类社会的不断发展,各种各样的突发事件对人类的生产生活环境造成了重大影响,为了更好地应对突发事件,需要充分考虑和深入分析突发事件所带来的各种威胁。然而,目前对于灾害事故等多灾种之间的相互关系,仍存在描述众多,概念混淆的问题。在广泛调研的基础上,梳理、归纳和补充灾害事故间关系现有的概念和定义,以及相关名词的运用场景,将灾害事故等多灾种情形归纳为灾害事故相互增强、灾害事故互斥削弱、灾害事故互不影响3大类,Natech事件、灾害链、多米诺效应、人为激发灾害、灾害事故集等10小类,并详细阐述其含义,并进一步举出对应的案例;同时,在整理多灾种风险分析的研究现状基础上,对未来多灾种风险分析的研究提出展望。     

易燃易爆场所静电事故链路及断链减灾模式

为了探究易燃易爆场所静电事故形成过程及防护机理,基于事故链式理论,以及静电点燃源形成过程和爆炸性环境形成过程这2条并行支链,绘制了易燃易爆场所静电事故链路;通过事故案例说明了静电事故链路的实用性;研究了静电荷、易燃/可燃物质在外界扰动作用下的特征形态。研究结果表明:静电事故断链减灾模式包括静电点燃源断链减灾模式、爆炸性环境断链减灾模式以及降低事故影响的事故后果断链减灾模式;针对静电事故的各类断链减灾模式,提出了相应的防护措施,可为易燃易爆场所静电事故防护提供系统性的指导方案。     

煤矿企业重大灾害预防与安全保障体系构建与运行评价

为提高煤矿企业重大灾害预防与安全保障能力,以典型煤矿企业为例,深入分析企业重大灾害的孕灾环境与类型,确定诱发煤矿重大灾害事故发生的关键因素,并提出构建以“安全文化理念”为1个核心,涵盖“组织”“制度”“人员”“技术”“信息”“装备”“资金”7个要素以及“危险源预控”和“灾害应急救援”2个关键环节的整体安全保障体系;最后,利用事故树模型和层次分析法评价某典型煤矿企业历年来的灾害事故实际情况,提出相关保障体系的持续优化方案,研究结果可为煤炭行业企业开展重大灾害预防与安全保障体系的设计与构建提供参考和借鉴。     

长大深埋隧道未开挖段岩爆灾害风险评估

为综合评估长大深埋隧道岩爆灾害风险,基于大量岩爆研究文献及待评估隧道的工程条件建立岩爆风险评估指标体系,包括单轴抗压强度、地应力、岩体完整性系数3个指标,并将岩爆风险划分为低、中、高和极高4个等级;根据围岩等级将待评估的五老峰隧道未开挖部分划分为4个区段,根据指标体系搜集各区段指标值,并将指标区间划分值与实际指标值归一化;基于重要性排序法和可拓综合评判确定未开挖区段的岩爆风险等级。研究结果表明:该隧道区段1,3和4的岩爆风险为中度,后续施工中应予以监测;区段2的岩爆风险为高度,在后续施工中必须采取风险控制措施降低风险并加强监测。     

地震监测台站开展防震减灾科普宣传的实践探索

科普宣传是防震减灾工作的重要组成部分。在传统科普宣传形式之外,如何利用大量专业地震监测台站开展科普宣传是一个重要课题。通过分析我国防震减灾科普宣传的成绩和不足,结合几年来北京市地震局地震台站开展防震减灾科普宣传实例,提炼归纳出利用地震监测台站开展科普宣传的独特优势,提出应该转变传统科普宣传思维模式,切实发挥专业地震监测台站防震减灾科普宣传的作用,并就如何加强地震监测台站的科普宣传工作提出了具体建议。     

Community resilience to natural disasters in the informal settlements in Mwanza City,Tanzania

The impacts of natural disasters on communities living in hazard prone areas are wide ranging and complex. In Mwanza, steep slopes, rocky hills and river valleys are inhabited by society's poorest people. These areas are prone to natural disasters. Residents have accumulated coping mechanisms for disaster risks and impact reduction. We combine spatial data, household surveys and data from focus groups to identify and rank areas based on their exposure to major disasters. We also examine household and communal mitigation efforts in relation to these disasters. Most areas of the city are exposed to at least one of the natural disasters studied. Pre- and post-disaster risk reduction measures are influenced by the site of homesteads and the socioeconomic situation of households. Current resilience measures are skewed towards the development of physical infrastructure. The challenge of reducing disaster risks in Mwanza involves recognizing the role of non-infrastructure based factors that promote urban resilience to natural disasters.     

基于AHP-FUZZY与SVM理论电网雷害风险评估

为了对电网遭受雷击灾害风险进行研究,以高压输电线路多个雷害影响因子为出发点对其进行归类,解决了以单因子雷击跳闸率作为高压输电线路遭受雷害评价指标的不足。采用AHP(层次分析法)-FUZZY(模糊数学理论)对电网雷害风险展开评估分级,引入某地500 k V电网工程实例,成功将该地电网雷害风险等级定为Ⅲ级中等雷害风险。为验证AHP-FUZZY法对电网雷害风险进行评估的准确性及可靠度,采用SVM(支持向量机)理论对工程实例进行分析计算,结果相关性系数R2为0.932,预测错误率为0,表明本次风险评估是可靠的,能够为电网雷害风险研究提供较大的理论与实际支撑。