城市风暴潮灾害快速评估的模糊决策方法——以厦门市为例

综合考虑了反映风暴潮灾害的自然特征和社会属性的4个指标,将其作为评估指标,建立了基于模糊决策的风暴潮发生过程中城市灾害的快速评估模型,并以街道为最小评估单元,对厦门市进行了一次模拟风暴潮的灾害综合快速评估。由于模型考虑了少量具有代表性的因素,故能保证评估过程的快速性、评估结果的时效性,能为政府在有限的时间和资源下做出救灾减灾的优先工作策略提供决策依据。     

非政府组织(NGO)灾后援助联动的综合集成模式

在全球化趋势日益加强和公民社会的作用不断增大的大背景下,国际性的NG0救灾同样是全球化的重要表现.如何应对这一情况,是中国政府和中国民间组织必须面对的问题.尽管NGO在世界上很多灾难性事件中都发挥了重要的作用,但仍然存在许多问题.NGO要解决灾后援助过程中产生的问题,必须改变传统的管理方式与合作模式,加强NGO之间的沟...     

Intertype mark correlation function: A new tool for the analysis of species interactions

The spatial pattern of the different species in complex ecosystems reflects the underlying ecological processes. In this paper a second order moment function is proposed and tested to analyse the spatial distribution of a mark, which could be a tree characteristic such as diameter or height, between two different types of points, which could be two different tree species. The proposed function was a conditional density function based on the intertype K_rs(d) function, incorporating as test function the correlation of the marks between pairs composed of points of different types. The results obtained in simulated and real plots prove that the function is capable of revealing the scale at which spatial correlation of the mark between two types of points exists. The proposed function allows the spatial association between individuals of different species at different life stages to be identified. This analysis may reveal information on species ecology and interspecific interactions in forest ecosystems.     

Monitoring and estimating the flow conditions and fish presence probability under various flow conditions at reach scale using genetic algorithms and kriging methods

The combination of current velocity and water depth influences stream flow conditions, and fish activities prefer particular flow conditions. This study develops a novel optimal flow classification method for identifying types of stream flow based on the current velocity and the water depth using a genetic algorithm. It is applied to the Datuan stream in northern Taiwan. Fish were sampled and their habitat investigated at the study site during the spring, summer, fall and winter of 2008-2009. The current velocity, water depth and maps of the presence probability of fish were estimated by ordinary and indicator kriging. The optimal classification results were compared with the classification results obtained using the Froude number and empirical methods. The flow classification results demonstrate that the proposed optimal flow classification method that considers depth-velocity and optimally identified criteria for classifying flow types, yields a current velocity and water depth of 0.32 (m/s) and 0.29 (m), respectively, and classifies the flow conditions in the study area as pool, run, riffle and slack. The variography results of the current velocity and the water depth data reveal that seasonal flows are not spatially stationary among seasons in the study area. Kriging methods and a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (River 2D) with empirical and optimal flow classification methods are more effective than the Froude number method in classifying flow conditions in the study area. The flow condition classifications and probability maps were generated by River 2D, ordinary kriging and indicator kriging, to quantify the flow conditions preferred by Sicyopterus japonicus in the study area. However, the proposed optimal classification method with kriging and River 2D is an effective alternative method for mapping flow conditions and determining the relationship between flow and the presence probability of target fish in support of stream restoration.     

图像处理在弹琴蛙(Rana adenopleura)蝌蚪生物监测研究中的应用

利用图像处理方法对不同质量浓度的阿特拉津溶液(1mg／L、5mg／L、10mg／L、15me／L)中弹琴蛙(Rana ade-nopleura)蝌蚪行为进行了图像的识别及分析．根据实验结果，利用MATLAB语言编写了弹琴蛙蝌蚪在水族缸中具体分布型判定的程序，采用了负二项分布的参数κ值来反应不同溶液中蝌蚪聚集程度的差异，并作为该指示生物监测阿特拉津水体污染情况的一个指标．结果显示，该程序可如实反映不同污染水体中蝌蚪的聚集程度：经χ^2检验各种水体中蝌蚪均符合负二项分布，同时阿特拉津溶液中蝌蚪的κ值均小于空白对照和丙酮对照，表明阿特拉津溶液的浓度和蝌蚪的聚集程度相关．图9表1参14     

Male-male association patterns and female proximity in the guppy,Poecilia reticulata

If males differ in their ability to attract potential mates, and are able to perceive such differences, theory predicts they should distribute themselves in a manner that increases their probability of obtaining potential matings. The relationship between male-male association patterns and the proximity of females in social groups, however, remains virtually unexplored. Experimental analysis of this relationship in the guppy, Poecilia reticulata, demonstrates that in preference tests males showed a strong tendency to associate with other males that were further away from potential mates than they were themselves. Male guppies pursue a behavioral strategy that involves categorizing other males based on their proximity (and possibly relative attractiveness) to females, remembering the identity of such individuals, and using this information when choosing between other males as associates. Such a strategy may increase a male's chances of being the individual chosen by a female assessing nearby males.     

New Approaches to the Assessment of Structural Organization of Communities in Springtails (Hexapoda: Collembola)

Trends in the diversity of structural organization of soil animal communities are analyzed using an example of the taxocenes of springtails, small soil arthropods. Different methods for describing the structure of communities are considered. On the basis of parameters characterizing specialization and stability of communities, several patterns of their organization in springtails are distinguished. It is shown that the new approach offers new opportunities in forecasting community dynamics under the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors.     

The State of Protected Forest Communities in the European Forest–Steppe Zone of Russia and Prospects for Their Reconstruction: A Case Study of Specially Protected Areas of Penza Oblast

The structure of most forest communities in the European forest–steppe, including protected areas, has been disturbed. The adverse consequences of these disturbances include the incomplete age structure of the populations of cenosis-forming species and the irreversibility of successions. The conservation of biodiversity in the structurally disturbed communities is impossible without human intervention, which must be aimed at restoring their age heterogeneity with regard to their specific ecological features.     

我国投资拉动的宏观成本分析

我国多年来坚持的是一种高投入、高消耗的投资拉动型增长模式．而高投资高增长则更多地以宏观成本积累为代价。未来投资的增速不仅取决于经济增长的预期目的．更多的取决于资金、技术、资源支撑和环境容量。通过对高投资高增长发展模式的高宏观成本分析，提出了贯彻落实科学发展观、促进经济方式转变的若干结论性建议。     

不同生态经济类型区生态农业模式与技术研究

开展区域生态农业建设，是推进农业结构战略性调整，加速农业由资源数量型向技术效益型转化，实现农业可持续发展的必然选择。根据湖南省近10年生态农业研究成果与实践经验，针对全省不同生态经济类型区的自然资源特点和社会经济发展水平，系统研究阐明了山地“林-药-果”、丘陵“草-粮-牧”、岗地“果-粮-猪”、平湖“粮-经-牧-渔”、水域“水生经济作物-水禽-水产”共生、蓄洪垸“林-草-牧-渔”、庭园“猪-沼-果”、城郊(或旅游区)“农业观光园”等区域生态农业实用模式的建设重点与技术要点，并实例分析了推广应用上述高效生态农业模式所产生的经济、生态与社会效益。