Simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization with multi-agent systems—A case study of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA

Urbanization is a human-dominated process and has greatly impacted biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and regional climate. To understand the socioeconomic drivers of urbanization and project future urban landscape changes, multi-agent systems provide a powerful tool. We develop an agent-based model of urban growth for the Phoenix metropolitan region of the United States, which simulates the behavior of regional authorities, real estate developers, residents, and environmentalists. The BDI (Beliefs-Desires-Intentions) structure is employed to simulate the agents behavior and decision models. The heterogeneity of agents is reflected by adjusting parameters according to the agents’ beliefs, desires and preferences. Three scenarios, baseline, economic development priority and environmental protection, are developed and analyzed. The combination of multi-agent system and spatial regression model is employed to predict the future urban development of the Phoenix metropolitan region. Landscape metrics are used to compare the spatial patterns of the urban landscape resulting from different scenarios in different times. In general, with the rapid urban expansion, the shape of urban patches will become more regular as many of them become coalesced. The spatial analysis of urban development through modeling individual and group decisions and human-environment interactions with a multi-agent systems approach can enhance our understanding of the socioeconomic driving forces and mechanisms of urban development.     

晋南两熟半干旱区“粮药”(半夏)农田生态抗旱耕作模式效益研究

采用大田试验,设计冬小麦(Triticum aestivum Linn.)在春季起身后套作半夏[Pinellia ternata(Thunb.)Breit.](小麦/半夏)、冬油菜(Brassica campestris L.)收获后复播半夏[Pinellia ternata(Thunb.)Breit.](油菜-半夏)和春玉米(Zea mays L.)与半夏[Pinellia ternata(Thunb.)Breit.]间作(玉米+半夏)3种耕作模式,探讨晋南两熟半干旱区适宜半夏的粮药耕作模式。结果表明:与油菜-半夏、玉米+半夏耕作模式相比,小麦/半夏耕作模式经济产量最高,生态效益最好;不同半夏品种中,西河半夏(原产地温度相对最低)产量最高,新绛半夏(原产地温度相对较高)产量最低。表明半夏适宜于从低温地区引种到高温地区栽培,可提高产量。与商洛半夏和新绛半夏相比,西河半夏分别增产19.1%和41.9%;小麦/半夏耕作模式为最佳粮药耕作模式,其半夏产量与油菜-半夏和玉米+半夏耕作模式相比,分别增产53.4%和70.8%。     

苏北侵蚀型海岸湿地景观时空演变特征及驱动机制

运用RS、GIS技术和景观生态学方法,对盐城国家级自然保护区侵蚀型海岸湿地1987、1997和2007年3个时相的景观数据进行分析,辨识侵蚀型海岸湿地景观格局时空演变特征。结果表明,1987—1997年,研究区光滩面积比例由76.91%下降至58.37%,碱蓬湿地由18.68%下降至5.51%,芦苇湿地由4.42%上升至13.01%,并出现了米草湿地和养殖池景观类型,1997年其面积比例分别为13.35%和9.76%。1997—2007年,碱蓬湿地退化消失,养殖池减少,芦苇湿地、米草湿地、光滩面积增加,其比例分别为15.85%、14.50%和60.86%。就景观异质性而言,多样性指数先升后降,景观优势度持续下降。景观空间演替呈现单向性特征:1987—1997年,从陆地向海洋方向演替;1997—2007年,从海洋向陆地方向演替。海岸地貌过程和植物覆被类型的连续变化导致湿地景观演变呈连续变化,但干扰往往使生态过程的连续性发生改变。     

组合养老保险风险管理的协调评价指数

运用大系统的理论与方法，探讨了组合养老保险风险管理的大系统协调评价途径，建立了相应的协调评价指数模型，可用以对风险协调管理的现状和未来进行定量评估、预测与控制，促进组合养老保险模式的可持续发展。     

刍议护理临床教师理想的角色模式

通过对162名实习护生问卷调查对临床带教老师的评价,14.2%的护生认为带教老师的自身素质有待提高;19.3%的护生评价带教老师在指导护生应用护理程序方面存在不足;13.4%的护生认为临床教师对待护生态度方面很一般,缺乏耐心.从而得出树立理想的带教老师角色模式,有利于融洽师生关系,促进职业情感化,激发护生的主动性,增强自信心,提高教学效果和实习质量.以达到从护生角度探讨护理临床教师的理想角色模式得目的.     

长江,嘉陵江重庆城区段流管划分及其水力学参数的确定

用作水流平面图的方法来计算河流累积流量，根据确定的流管系数对累积流量曲线进行分割，求得二维水质数学模型所需的流管宽度，水深和平均流速等水力学参数。     

对转压气机三维掠动叶优化设计

为探索三维掠动叶降低对转压气机二次流损失的潜力,进一步提高对转压气机气动性能,基于近似函数与遗传算法,针对某对转压气机双排转子在整机环境下进行三维掠动叶优化设计,并对优化前后流场进行对比分析。优化成功的得到了双排“S”形掠动叶,结果表明:三维掠动叶有效改善了双排动叶吸力面径向二次流,减小了吸力面低速区,提高了对转压气机性能,优化工况点整机效率提高0.6%,全工况范围内效率均有所提高；三维掠动叶提高对转压气机效率的根本原因是其对径向负荷分配的重新调整,将叶展下方流动较差区域负荷移至叶展上方,改善流场的同时保证对转压气机负荷不变。      

A Methodology Framework for Regional Land-use Change Studies based on Landsat TM images: A Case Study in Northeast China

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is, in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. This paper analyzed the land-use change in Northeast China during 1985-2000 based on Landsat TM images. It divides Northeast China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree model of land-use: woodland/grassland-arable land conversion zone, dry land-paddy field conversion zone; urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing and reclamation and abandon zone. The findings include the obvious increase of cropland area, paddy field and dry land increased by 75 and 276 thousand hm2 respectively; urban areas expanded rapidly, areas of town and rural residence increased by 76.8 thousand hm2; areas of forests and grassland decreased sharply with the amounts of 1399 and 1521 thousand hm2 respectively; areas of water body and unused land increased by 148 and 514 thousand hm2 respectively. This paper also discusses the driving     

最后间冰期至未来2070s中国潜在自然植被时空分布格局及其对气候变化的响应

潜在自然植被（PNV）对生态环境的修复与重建、自然保护区的规划与建设和农牧业的生产与发展均有着重要的指导作用。研究基于综合顺序分类系统（CSCS）,利用最后间冰期至未来2070s六个时期的温度和降水量数据,模拟中国PNV的时空分布格局及其对气候变化的响应。研究结果表明：（1）CSCS将六个时期中国PNV分别划分为39、37、38、40、40和40类以及10个类组。（2）寒冷干旱型类组主要分布在西北,温暖湿润型和炎热潮湿型则分布在中东部和南方。除冻原和高山草地、冷荒漠、半荒漠和温带森林草地4个类组呈现下降趋势外,其余均为上升趋势。（3）温带森林草地转变为亚热带森林草地的面积最大,占总变化面积的35.4%。（4）CSCS既未包含人类活动影响因素,又能模拟长时间序列的PNV演替。（5）最后间冰期至未来2070s,森林类组向纬度和海拔高度更高的北方及青藏高原移动。研究结果进一步明确了PNV概念的界限,揭示了气候变化对PNV演替的作用机理。     

Compilation of reaction kinetics parameters determined in the Key Development Project for Air Pollution Formation Mechanism and Control Technologies in China

A compilation of new advances made in the research field of laboratory reaction kinetics in China's Key Development Project for Air Pollution Formation Mechanism and Control Technologies was presented. These advances are grouped into six broad, interrelated categories, including volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, new particle formation (NPF) and gas-particle partitioning, ozone chemistry, model parameters, and secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) formation, highlighting the laboratory work done by Chinese researchers. For smog chamber applications, the current knowledge gained from laboratory studies is reviewed, with emphasis on summarizing the oxidation mechanisms of long-chain alkanes, aromatics, alkenes, aldehydes/ketones in the atmosphere, SOA formation from anthropogenic emission sources, and oxidation of aromatics, isoprene, and limonene, as well as SIA formation. For flow tube applications, atmospheric oxidation mechanisms of toluene and methacrolein, SOA formation from limonene oxidation by ozone, gas-particle partitioning of peroxides, and sulfuric acid-water (H₂SO₄-H₂O) binary nucleation, methanesulfonic acid-water (MSA-H₂O) binary nucleation, and sulfuric acid-ammonia-water (H₂SO₄-NH₃-H₂O) ternary nucleation are discussed.