A Bayesian strategy for combining predictions from empirical and process-based models

We present a strategy for using an empirical forest growth model to reduce uncertainty in predictions made with a physiological process-based forest ecosystem model. The uncertainty reduction is carried out via Bayesian melding, in which information from prior knowledge and a deterministic computer model is conditioned on a likelihood function. We used predictions from an empirical forest growth model G-HAT in place of field observations of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in a deciduous temperate forest ecosystem. Using Bayesian melding, priors for the inputs of the process-based forest ecosystem PnET-II were propagated through the model, and likelihoods for the PnET-II output ANPP were calculated using the G-HAT predictions. Posterior distributions for ANPP and many PnET-II inputs obtained using the G-HAT predictions largely matched posteriors obtained using field data. Since empirical growth models are often more readily available than extensive field data sets, the method represents a potential gain in efficiency for reducing the uncertainty of process-based model predictions when reliable empirical models are available but high-quality data are not.     

Dynamics of soil organic matter in primary and secondary forest succession on sandy soils in The Netherlands: An application of the ROMUL model

We applied the simulation model ROMUL of soil organic matter dynamics in order to analyse and predict forest soil organic matter (SOM) changes following stand growth and also to identify gaps of data and modelling problems. SOM build-up was analysed (a) from bare sand to forest soil during a primary succession in Scots pine forest and (b) on mature forest soil under Douglas fir plantations as an example of secondary succession in The Netherlands. As some of the experimental data were unreliable we compiled a set of various scenarios with different soil moisture regime, initial SOM pools and amount and quality of above and below ground litter input. This allowed us to find the scenarios that reflect the SOM dynamics more realistically. In the Scots pine forest, total litter input was estimated as 0.50 kg m⁻² year⁻¹. Two scenarios were defined for the test runs: (a) forest floor moisture regimes—‘dry, mesic and hydric’ and (b) augmenting a root litter pool with three ratios of needles and branches to roots: 1:1, 1:1.5 and 1:2.0. The scenario finally compiled had the following characteristics: (a) climate for dry site with summer drought and high winter moisture of forest floor; (b) a litter input of 0.25 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ above ground and 0.50 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ below ground; (c) a low nitrogen and ash content in all litter fall fractions. The test runs for the estimation of the initial SOM pools and the amount and proportion of above and below ground litter fall were also performed in the Douglas fir plantation. The inputs of above ground litter tested in various combinations were 0.30 and 0.60 kg m⁻² year⁻¹, and below ground litter 0.30, 0.60 and 0.90 kg m⁻² year⁻¹. The scenario that fitted the experimental data had an SOM pool of 20–25 kg m⁻², an aboveground litter input of 0.6 kg m⁻² year⁻¹and a below ground litter input of 0.9 kg m⁻² year⁻¹. The long-term simulation corresponded well with the observed patterns of soil organic matter accumulation associated with the forest soil development in primary and secondary succession. During primary succession in Scots pine forest on dry sand there is a consistent accumulation of a raw humus forest floor. The soil dynamics in the Douglas fir plantation also coincide with the observed patterns of SOM changes during the secondary succession, with SOM decreasing significantly under young forest, and SOM being restored in the older stands.     

Managing mangroves in Bangladesh: A strategy analysis

Bangladesh, favoured by a tropical climate, houses the world’s largest stretch of mangroves forests (Sundarbans Reserved Forest) and plantations. Around half of the forests of the country occur in the coastal zone. People extract various goods and services from the mangroves. Nevertheless the mangrove forests are depleting. Although the extent of the Sundarbans forest has not changed much, its decline is of a qualitative nature. Mangrove plantations are increasing in area but they are losing growing stock. To arrest this, Bangladesh has adopted several strategies. The ‘Sustainable Ecosystem Management’ strategy has now been adopted instead of the ‘Sustained Yield Principle’. Biodiversity conservation and enhancement has been taken as a key management goal. A zoning system is being developed for both production and protection purposes. The government facilitates alternative income for the local people by generating activities for the communities which are dependent on the forest. Different non-governmental organizations collaborate with the government in reducing the local people’s dependence on the forest. Coastal plantations are erected to protect people from cyclones and to make the land more suitable for habitation. Through this greening of the coastal belt tree plantation is encouraged in coastal villages. Coastal embankments are being planted and leased to poor settlers in exchange for routine maintenance of the embankments. Plantations on newly accreted mud flats help in stabilizing the land, which can later on be settled by victims of erosion elsewhere. These adopted management measures do not only contribute to forestry resource management but also to the social, environmental and economic wellbeing of the coastal communities. These efforts are at present being integrated into an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) project.     

Gap-Crossing Decisions by the Red Squirrel, a Forest-Dependent Small Mammal

Abstract:  Forest-associated species in fragmented landscapes must traverse potentially inhospitable gaps to move between habitat patches. Although conservation biologists advocate connecting patches with corridors or improving the matrix to make it suitable for movement, little is known about the factors influencing gap-crossing decisions for most species. We investigated gap crossing by the red squirrel ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus ) in logged landscapes in southeastern Alaska, where the species avoids microhabitats associated with gaps created by clearcutting. We released individuals across clearcuts and determined the routes they took home with tracking spools and radio telemetry. Of 36 adult red squirrels translocated across six clearcuts, 14 crossed clearcuts to reach home. Squirrels were more likely to cross clearcuts if the detour efficiency (distance to home crossing gap divided by distance of forested detour) was low, indicating an ability to compare distances along alternate routes and travel costs or risks in different habitats. No other landscape metrics, such as gap size or crossing distance, predicted crossing behavior. Red squirrels of low body mass were more likely to cross clearcuts, where the probability of encountering conspecifics is low. Distance predicted route choice for squirrels detouring around clearcuts. Indirect evidence suggests that perceived predation risk, energetic costs, or both are higher in clearcuts. Detour efficiency reportedly influences the gap-crossing decisions of some forest-associated birds, but this is the first demonstration of its role in gap-crossing decisions by a mammal.     

Roads and Landscape Pattern in Northern Wisconsin Based on a Comparison of Four Road Data Sources

Abstract:  Roads are important components of landscapes; they fragment habitat, facilitate invasive species spread, alter hydrology, and influence patterns of land use. Previous research on the ecological impacts of roads may have underestimated their effect because currently available sources of road data do not include the full road network. We compared differences in road density and landscape pattern among U.S. Census Bureau TIGER line files, U.S. Geological Survey 1:100,000-scale digital line graphs, and U.S. Geological Survey 1:24,000-scale digital raster graphics in northern Wisconsin to road data derived from 1:40,000-scale digital orthophotos. Road density measured from digital orthophotos (2.82 km/km²) was significantly greater than that of digital raster graphics (1.62 km/km²) and more than double that of digital line graphs (1.21 km/km²) and TIGER (1.27 km/km²) data. The increased road densities in raster graphics and orthophoto data were mainly due to the addition of minor roads. When all roads were used to define patch boundaries, landscape metrics produced with orthophoto data showed significantly greater levels of fragmentation than those based on line or raster graphics. For example, maximum patch size was 1074 ha and total edge was 109 km for line graphs, compared with 686 ha and 211 km for orthophoto data. Roads are missing in commonly used data, primarily because mapping standards systematically exclude minor roads. These standards are not ecologically based and may result in false assumptions about the ecological effects of roads. We recommend that future studies take special consideration of the completeness of road data and consider whether all ecologically relevant roads are included.     

Reproductive Investment of a Lacertid Lizard in Fragmented Habitat

Abstract:  We studied the effect of habitat fragmentation on female reproductive investment in a widespread lacertid lizard (  Psammodromus algirus ) in a mixed-forest archipelago of deciduous and evergreen oak woods in northern Spain. We captured gravid females in fragments (≤10 ha) and forests (≥ 200 ha) and brought them to the laboratory, where they laid their eggs. We incubated the eggs and released the first cohort of juveniles into the wild to monitor their survival. Females from fragments produced a smaller clutch mass and laid fewer eggs (relative to mean egg mass) than females of similar body size from forests. Lizards did not trade larger clutches for larger offspring, however, because females from fragments did not lay larger eggs (relative to their number) than females from forests. Among the first cohort of juveniles, larger egg mass and body size increased the probability of recapture the next year. Thus, fragmentation decreased the relative fecundity of lizards without increasing the quality of their offspring. Reduced energy availability, increased predation risk, and demographic stochasticity could decrease the fitness of lizards in fragmented habitats, which could contribute to the regional scarcity of this species in agricultural areas sprinkled with small patches of otherwise suitable forest. Our results show that predictable reduction of reproductive output with decreasing size of habitat patches can be added to the already known processes that cause inverse density dependence at low population numbers.