Simulating regeneration and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean coniferous forests

This study aims to provide a quantitative framework to model the dynamics of Mediterranean coniferous forests by integrating existing ecological data within a generic mathematical simulator. We developed an individual-based vegetation dynamics model, constrained on long-term field regeneration data, analyses of tree-rings and seed germination experiments. The simulator implements an asymmetric competition algorithm which is based on the location and size of each individual. Growth is parameterized through the analysis of tree-rings from more than thirty individuals of each of the three species of interest. A super-individual approach is implemented to simulate regeneration dynamics, constrained with available regeneration data across time-since-disturbance and light-availability gradients. The study concerns an insular population of an endemic to Greece Mediterranean fir (Abies cephalonica Loudon) on the island of Cephalonia (Ionian Sea) and two interacting populations of a Mediterranean pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) and a more temperate-oriented pine (Pinus nigra Arn. ssp. pallasiana) on the island of Lesbos (NE Aegean Sea), Greece. The model was validated against plot-level observations in terms of species standing biomass and regeneration vigour and adequately captured regeneration patterns and overall vegetation dynamics in both study sites. The potential effects of changing climatic patterns on the regeneration dynamics of the three species of interest were subsequently explored. With the assumption that a warmer future would probably cause changes in the duration of cold days, we tested how this change would affect the overall dynamics of the study sites, by focusing on the process of cold stratification upon seed germination. Following scenarios of a warmer future and under the current model parameterization, changes in the overall regeneration vigour controlled by a reduction in the amount of cold days, did not alter the overall dynamics in all plant populations studied. No changes were identified in the relative dominance of the interacting pine populations on Lesbos, while the observed reduction in the amount of emerging seedlings of A. cephalonica on Cephalonia did not affect biomass yield at later stages of stand development.     

Establishment of Markov successional model and its application for forest restoration reference in Southern China

Forest succession is the base of establishing restoration reference which plays an important role in forest restoration and restoration estimation. The study presented the establishment of a Markov successional model (MSM) and its application to restoration reference in lower subtropical forest in China. The compositions of successional system in MSM were divided into three species types: pioneering pine trees, heliophytic trees and mesophytic trees. The successional system was divided into three subsystems: early successional stage, mid-successional stage and late-successional stage. Based on the site survey on the changes in the species and their individuals in 25 years, the transition matrices in various subsystems were determined. The predicted results were used to establish the restoration reference of the vegetation restoration in lower subtropical China. According to the ecological restoration reference established in this study, it would take 150 years for the forest to change from pioneer to mature communities in the region. Successional change of tree composition was forecast by the model, and the scenario forecast by the model reflects the actual conditions observed through 52 years of long-term permanent site research. The restoration experience in the region matches the forecast results. The application of a restoration reference model indicates that forest restoration can be accelerated by taking measures which change forest structure. The above results imply that a restoration reference established on the rule of regional forest succession could be very useful not only in directing, but also in assessing and managing regional forest restoration. Previously, one “ideal reference ecosystem” was used as a restoration reference in all correlative studies. In this study, the restoration “process” was used as the restoration reference.     

Using an individual-based model to quantify scale transition in demographic rate functions: Deaths in a coral reef fish

Scientifically informed population management requires quantitatively accurate demographic rate functions that apply at the spatial scale at which populations are actually managed, but practical constraints confine most field measurements of such functions to small study plots. This paper employs an individual-based population growth model to extrapolate the death rate function in a well-studied coral reef fish, the bridled goby Coryphopterus glaucofraenum, from the scale of coral reef “cells” at which it was measured to the larger scale of an entire coral reef. Density dependence in the whole-reef function actually proves stronger than in the local function because high goby density occasionally arises in local patches with few refuges from predators, producing very high mortality there. This IBM-based approach extends the reach of scale transition theory by examining considerably more realistic models than standard analytical methods can presently handle.     

What enables coexistence in plant communities? Weak versus strong species traits and the role of local processes

Explaining the coexistence of species that basically depend on the same resources has been a brainteaser for generations of ecologists. Different mechanisms have been proposed to facilitate coexistence in plant communities, where space is an important resource. Using a stochastic cellular automaton simulation model we analyze - separately and in combination - the influence of different species traits and processes which alter local competition on the coexistence of plant species over a fixed time horizon. We show that different species traits operate on different time scales in competition. We therefore suggest the concept of weak versus strong traits according to short- or long-term exclusion of species differing in these traits. As a consequence, highly non-linear trade-offs between weak and strong traits can result in communities. Furthermore, we found that trade-offs based on physiological species traits such as plant lifetime, dispersal range and plant growth, did not support broad and long-term coexistence—further processes such as density-dependent mortality and light-dependent colonization were necessary. This suggests that coexistence in plant communities requires (stabilizing) local processes to support the (equalizing) trade-offs in species traits.     

Landscape Character and Fish Assemblage Structure and Function in Western Lake Superior Streams: General Relationships and Identification of Thresholds

As part of a comparative watershed project investigating land-cover/land-use disturbance gradients for streams in the western Lake Superior Basin, we examined general relationships between landscape character and fish assemblage structure and function. We also examined the shape of those relationships to identify discontinuity thresholds where small changes in landscape character were associated with marked shifts in the fish assemblages. After completing a geographic analysis of second- and third-order watersheds in the western Lake Superior drainage, we randomly selected 48 streams along mature forest and watershed storage gradients in 2 hydrogeomorphic regions as our study sites. During the summers of 1997 and 1998, we used electrofishing to sample fish assemblages from each stream. Each of the landscape factors was significantly associated with fish assemblage structure and function based on analysis of covariance. Watershed storage was related to the greatest number of fish assemblage characteristics, but hydrogeopmorphic region and mature forest cover were strongly associated as well. The hydrogeomorphic region also mediated relationships between watershed character and fish assemblages. Discontinuity thresholds for our fish assemblages averaged 11% for watershed storage and 50% for watershed mature forest cover based on piecewise regression analysis. Although many of the landscape–fish relationships might have been manifest through effects on in-stream habitat, our results highlight the importance of management and land-use planning decisions at the watershed and landscape scales.Published online     

Effects of Changing Forest and Impervious Land Covers on Discharge Characteristics of Watersheds

Effects of changing patterns of forest and impervious land covers on hydrologic regimes of watersheds were evaluated for urban and rural areas of the lower Cedar River drainage near Seattle, Washington. Land cover characterizations were used in a spatially explicit hydrology model to assess effects of land covers on watershed hydrology during presettlement conditions (full forest cover), 1991 and 1998. For the presettlement to 1991 period, urban watersheds showed decreases in forest covers (range 63% to 83%) and increases in impervious surfaces (range 43% to 71%). Rural watersheds showed similar patterns but smaller changes, with forest covers decreasing (range 28% to 34%) and impervious surfaces increasing (range 8% to 15%). For the 1991 and 1998 period, changes in forest covers for urban and rural watershed were <24%, with losses in some watersheds and regeneration in others. Impervious surfaces continued to increase, but increases were larger in rural (range 38% to 60%) than in urban watersheds (range 4% to 27%). Flood-frequency curves indicated that discharge rates (m sec^–1) for all watersheds were higher in 1991 and 1998 than historical and suggested that chances for floods increase because of changing land covers. The largest increases in discharge rates were in urban watersheds, with rates for 2-year, 10-year, and 25-year recurrence intervals being more than two times greater than the rate during historical conditions. Changes in flow regimes were indicated by presettlement discharge levels of less frequent recurrence intervals (10-year and 25-year) occurring in posturbanization times (1991 and 1998) during more frequent intervals (2-year and 10-year). Normalized flows (m yr^–1) of watersheds for 2-year, 10-year, and 25-year recurrence intervals indicate how flow regimes in 1991 and 1998 can change as functions of different areas of land covers. During 1991 and 1998, abrupt increases in flows occurred when forest covers were low (range 17% to 37%) and impervious surfaces were >46%. In contrast, the lowest flows occurred when forest covers were most extensive (range 59% to 81%) and impervious surfaces were <23%. We conclude that our use of spatial characterizations of impervious surfaces and forested covers in a spatially explicit hydrology model provides a robust approach for revealing how variations in different types and spatial distributions of land covers can affect flood regimes and flows of different watersheds.     

Evaluating the management strategies of a forestland estate--the S-O-S approach

Connecting Multiple Criteria Decision Support (MCDS) methods with SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis yields analytical priorities for the factors included in SWOT analysis and makes them commensurable. In addition, decision alternatives can be evaluated with respect to each SWOT factor. In this way, SWOT analysis provides the basic frame within which to perform analyses of decision situations. MCDS methods, in turn, assist in carrying out SWOT more analytically and in elaborating the results of the analyses so that alternative strategic decisions can be prioritized also with respect to the entire SWOT. The A'WOT analysis is an example of such hybrid methods. It makes combined use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and SWOT. In this study, a hybrid method of the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis with Ordinal criteria (SMAA-O) and SWOT is developed as an elaboration of the basic ideas of A'WOT. The method is called S-O-S (SMAA-O in SWOT). SMAA-O enables the handling of ordinal preference information as well as mixed data consisting of both ordinal and cardinal information. Using SMAA-O is enough to just rank decision elements instead of giving them cardinal preference or priority ratios as required by the most commonly used MCDS methods. Using SMAA-O, in addition to analyzing what the recommended action is under certain priorities of the criteria, enables one to analyze what kind of preferences would support each action. The S-O-S approach is illustrated by a case study, where the shareholders of a forest holding owned by a private partnership prepared the SWOT analysis. Six alternative strategies for the management of their forest holding and of old cottage located on the holding were formed. After S-O-S analyses were carried out, one alternative was found to be the most recommendable. However, different importance orders of the SWOT groups would lead to different recommendations, since three of the six alternatives were efficient according to S-O-S analyses.     

Understandings of Environmental Quality: Ambiguities and Values Held by Environmental Professionals

The terms used to describe and negotiate environmental quality are both ambiguous and value-laden. Stakeholders intimately and actively involved in the management of forested lands were interviewed and found to use ambiguous, tautological, and value-laden definitions of terms such as health, biodiversity, sustainability, and naturalness. This confusing language hinders public participation efforts and produces calls to regulate and remove discretion from environmental professionals. Our data come from in-depth interviews with environmental management professionals and other stakeholders heavily vested in negotiating the fate of forested lands. We contend that environmental science and management will be more effective if its practitioners embrace and make explicit these ambiguous and evaluative qualities rather than ignore and disguise them.     

Impact of Fencing on the Recovery of the Ground Flora on Heavily Eroded Slopes of a Deciduous Forest

This paper seeks to outline early stages in the recovery of forest ground flora on eroded slopes impacted by recreation activities and to suggest how these data might be applied in the formulation of management policies for forest recreation areas. Based on a fencing experiment in the Sonian Forest near Brussels, we investigated whether, over a 6-year period, the vegetation was able to recover after having been destroyed by recreation use. Short-term trends in overall species composition were already observable during this 6-year study. Species recovery on eroded hills was related to slope, aspect, and soil type. During the considered time scale, the proportion of hemicryptophytes and the number of ancient forest species increased significantly. A downward trend was detected for Ellenbergs nitrogen and temperature indexes and for the proportion of therophytes and pioneer plants of disturbed places. Changes in species frequencies suggest six recovery strategies: early, late, expanding, disappearing, transient, and fluctuating species. Aside from seedling reproduction from overstory influences, Luzula sylvatica appeared to be the most resilient of the species identified in the study since this species has the highest global frequency in our sampling plots and has increased its cover during the study period. Study results indicate that (1) protection from recreation has initiated the recovery of species in the herb layer, but (2) it may take a long time before vegetation previously present in the ground flora may recover in both density and species composition.     

Fragmentation profiles for real and simulated landscapes

When a natural landscape is represented by a series of categorical raster maps of varying resolution, a multiresolution characterization of spatial pattern can be obtained in which entropy is computed at each resolution conditional on the next coarser resolution. The series of entropy values is plotted as a function of resolution, resulting in a multiresolution profile of fragmentation pattern in the landscape. If a categorical raster map is available at a single resolution only, a series of degraded maps at increasingly coarser resolutions is generated and the fragmentation profile is computed for this series. An algorithm has been developed for obtaining the profile directly from the single resolution map without having to generate and store the coarser resolution maps. A hierarchical stochastic model is described for simulating categorical raster maps and the fragmentation profile of the generating process is obtained in terms of the model parameters. These process profiles provide benchmarks for assessing empirical profiles obtained from raster maps of actual landscapes. Methods of the paper are applied to several watersheds of Pennsylvania using landcover maps derived from satellite imagery. These examples indicate that characteristic landscape types induce characteristic features in their fragmentation profiles.