SMART-SREC: A stochastic model of the New Jersey solar renewable energy certificate market

Markets for solar renewable energy certificates (SRECs) are gaining in prominence in many states, stimulating growth of the US solar industry. However, SREC market prices have been extremely volatile, causing high risk to participants and potentially less investment in solar power generation. Such concerns necessitate the development of realistic, flexible and tractable models of SREC prices that capture the behavior of participants given the rules that govern the market. We propose an original stochastic model called SMART-SREC to fill this role, building on established ideas from the carbon pricing literature, and including a feedback mechanism for generation response to prices. We calibrate the model to the New Jersey market and backtest it, analyzing parameter sensitivity and demonstrating its ability to reproduce historical dynamics. Finally, we run simulations to investigate the role and impact of regulatory parameters, thus providing insight into the crucial role played by market design.     

Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change

We study the role of intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth, stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse. We contrast two polar instances of risk-sensitive preferences: the traditional “discounted utility” model, which imposes a positive rate of pure time preference and risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility, and multiplicatively separable preferences, which display risk aversion in that dimension but no pure time preferences. We show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same economy when there is no collapse risk associated with pollution. Once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate depends on the pollution stock, multiplicatively separable preferences are associated with a much higher value of catastrophic risk reduction, and a more stringent policy response. A relatively high discount rate may thus be compatible with large emissions abatement in the face of a low probability large impact event, reflecting preferences for catastrophic risk reduction.     

Propagation and intensity of blast wave from hydrogen pipe rupture due to internal detonation

The coupled fluid-structure-rupture model was developed to study the propagation and intensity of blast wave from hydrogen pipe rupture due to internal detonation. The dynamic rupture of pipe and propagation of blast wave were well coupled together in every timestep during the simulation. The numerical model was validated with experiments in terms of both typical rupture profiles and blast overpressures. Results reveal that crack branching of pipe can dramatically increase the rupture opening rate which controls the intensity and shape of the resultant blast wave. Due to the process of crack initiation and extension, the blast wave out of the pipe first forms and then is strengthened by the subsequent compression waves. This makes the maximum peak overpressure appears at a certain standoff distance above the rupture. Despite consuming some percentages of energy, the dynamic rupture of pipe generally presents positive effects (up to 2–3 times) on the blast wave intensity along the jetting direction due to the convergence effect of rupture opening on the release of internal high-pressure gas. Finally, through defining normalized overpressure and impulse based on the same hydrogen detonation in open spaces, the quantitative influences of pipe rupture on the blast wave intensity in cases of different detonation pressures and standoff distances are clarified.     

江苏省“十一五”环境质量状况及成因分析

结合江苏省“十一五”期间环境质量状况及变化情况,综合分析了环境空气、水环境、声环境质量及污染物排放状况.“十一五”期间,江苏省经济总量以13.5％的平均速度增长,社会、经济的快速发展给全省环境质量带来巨大的胁迫压力,资源能源消耗迅速攀升,“三废”产生总量持续增长;而由于加大了节能减排和环境治理投入力度,采取了一系列措施...     

Prioritizing groundwater remediation policies: a fuzzy compatibility analysis decision aid

The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies.     

An analysis of the implementation of an environmental management system in a local public administration

The Environmental Management System (EMS) is commonly implemented in private firms. However, on the basis of a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis, our work analyzes the consequences of implementing an EMS within the context of local public administrations, particularly regarding the City Council of Ohanes in Almería (Spain). This is the first European corporation to implement an EMS according to the ISO 14001 Standard, certified by the Spanish Association of Normalization and Certification. Its analysis would be equivalent to the Shumpeterian "market innovator study", so that public administration "followers" can take advantage of the derived benefits and of minimizing the negative effects of such an experience. On the other hand, we show that the economic and environmental advantages derived from the EMS go beyond the activities that the City Council is in charge of. They have spillover effects that extend them to all economic activities in the municipality and these effects are expected to be increased in the medium and long-term perspective. In this paper, we compare the costs and benefits that the municipality obtains in two cases: the City Council implements the EMS or it does not implement it. The main objective of this article is to show the economic and environmental advantages obtained by a municipality when it is only the City Council who is implementing an EMS. It is logical to suppose that this case study can stimulate other municipalities to use this instrument, even if the economic and environmental characteristics of the municipality are different.     

An integrated impact assessment and weighting methodology: evaluation of the environmental consequences of computer display technology substitution

Computer display technology is currently in a state of transition, as the traditional technology of cathode ray tubes is being replaced by liquid crystal display flat-panel technology. Technology substitution and process innovation require the evaluation of the trade-offs among environmental impact, cost, and engineering performance attributes. General impact assessment methodologies, decision analysis and management tools, and optimization methods commonly used in engineering cannot efficiently address the issues needed for such evaluation. The conventional Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) process often generates results that can be subject to multiple interpretations, although the advantages of the LCA concept and framework obtain wide recognition. In the present work, the LCA concept is integrated with Quality Function Deployment (QFD), a popular industrial quality management tool, which is used as the framework for the development of our integrated model. The problem of weighting is addressed by using pairwise comparison of stakeholder preferences. Thus, this paper presents a new integrated analytical approach, Integrated Industrial Ecology Function Deployment (I2-EFD), to assess the environmental behavior of alternative technologies in correlation with their performance and economic characteristics. Computer display technology is used as the case study to further develop our methodology through the modification and integration of various quality management tools (e.g., process mapping, prioritization matrix) and statistical methods (e.g., multi-attribute analysis, cluster analysis). Life cycle thinking provides the foundation for our methodology, as we utilize a published LCA report, which stopped at the characterization step, as our starting point. Further, we evaluate the validity and feasibility of our methodology by considering uncertainty and conducting sensitivity analysis.     

Importance of information on tillage practices in the modelling of environmental processes and in the use of environmental indicators

Tillage has been and will always be integral to crop production. Tillage can result in the degradation of soil, water, and air quality. Of all farm management practices, tillage may have the greatest impact on the environment. A wide variety of tillage equipment, practices and systems are available to farmers, providing opportunities to enhance environmental performance. These opportunities have made tillage a popular focus of environmental policies and programs such as environmental indicators for agriculture. This paper provides a very brief examination of the role of tillage in crop production, its effect on biophysical processes and, therefore, its impact on the environment. Models of biophysical processes are briefly examined to demonstrate the importance of tillage relative to other farm management practices and to demonstrate the detail of tillage data that these models can demand. The focus of this paper is an examination of the use of information on tillage in Canada's agri-environmental indicators initiative, National Agri-environmental Health Analysis and Reporting Program (NAHARP). Information on tillage is required for several of the indicators in NAHARP. The type of data used, its source, and its quality are discussed. Recommendations regarding the collection of tillage data and use of tillage information are presented.     

Principles and processes for effecting change in environmental management in New Zealand

In New Zealand environmental management is essentially the responsibility of land managers. Management decisions affect both production/productivity and the environment. However, responsibility for ensuring positive environmental outcomes falls on both local (Regional) and Central Government, and both they and international agencies such as the OECD would wish to monitor and report on changes. In terms of policy, strong links have been established via Central and Regional Government to land managers. Consumers in the market place are also, increasingly, requiring responsibility for positive environmental outcomes of those who purchase and process primary products. Strong links for responsibility have been established between our international markets and processing businesses and there is a noticeable strengthening of the links from the processors to the land manager/producer. In New Zealand a range of initiatives has been developed and implemented over recent times, whereby land managers are taking increasing responsibility for accounting for the environmental outcomes of their production activities. The range covers the spectrum from voluntary to compulsory (e.g., in order to meet market requirements) and from those initiated by customers to processor and/or producer initiatives. This paper follows the evolution of the principles that drove the predominant activities of the period and the processes that initiated the changes in environmental management. As the focus of agriculturalists changed from pioneering in a new world, to establishing a production base, to economic reality, and finally to environmental responsibility, the processes of extension adapted to meet the new challenge.     

ISO 14 001 at the farm level: analysis of five methods for evaluating the environmental impact of agricultural practices

Faced with society's increasing expectations, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) review considers environmental management to be an ever more critical criterion in the allocation of farm subsidies. With the goal of evaluating the environmental friendliness of farm practices, France's agricultural research and extension services have built a range of agricultural/environmental diagnostic tools over recent years. The objective of the present paper is to compare the five tools most frequently used in France: IDEA, DIAGE, DIALECTE, DIALOGUE and INDIGO. All the tools have the same purpose: evaluation of the impact of farm practices on the environment via indicators and monitoring of farm management practices. When tested on a sample of large-scale farms in Picardie, the five tools sometimes produced completely different results: for a given farm, the most supposedly significant environmental impacts depend on the tool used. These results lead to differing environmental management plans and raise the question of the methods' pertinence. An analysis grid of diagnostic tools aimed at specifying their field of validity, limits and relevance was drawn up. The resulting comparative analysis enables to define each tool's domain of validity and allows to suggest lines of thought for developing more relevant tools for (i) evaluating a farm's environmental performance and (ii) helping farmers to develop a plan for improving practices within the framework of an environmental management system.