区域农业生态环境质量综合评价方法与模型研究

为了客观准确的评价区域农业生态环境质量,引入灰色系统理论中的关联度分析法,提出了区域生态环境质量的多级模糊综合评价——灰色关联优势分析复合模型,并以安徽省芜湖市区域农业生态环境质量的综合评价为例,根据芜湖市区域农业生态环境调查与监测资料,进行了实例研究。结果表明:安徽省芜湖市区域农业生态环境已经受到了明显的污染,并且各区域污染水平具有一定的差异;芜湖市区域农业生态环境质量优劣的关联序依次为:南陵县、芜湖县、繁昌县和城市郊区。      

煤矿企业清洁生产效益模糊综合评价研究

煤矿企业推行并坚持实施清洁生产的动力是效益。但这一效益究竟如何,成为亟待研究的科学问题。本文运用模糊评价法开展对该问题的试探性研究。从经济、环境、社会效益3个方面选用18个评价指标,构成煤矿企业清洁生产效益评价指标体系,运用层次分析法确定指标权重系数并建立模糊综合评价模型,并进行了应用实例评估,最后用具体数值量化了实施清洁生产后的煤矿企业综合效益情况,得到解决问题的初步结论。     

Risk analysis of Chongqing urban rail transit network

Urban rail network safety is a critical sector of urban public safety. However, there is no uniform standard for the safety evaluation of the urban rail network. This paper presents a novel methodology by integrating a multilevel decision tree with a fuzzy analytical approach to enhance urban rail network safety. The proposed methodology overcomes serious limitations such as subjectivity in the data and independence of the variables in decision-making processes. The proposed methodology is applied to the risk evaluation of the selected Chongqing rail transit lines and the Expo Line. The risk analysis is considered using the field data collected from these transit lines. The applied case studies confirm the general applicability of the methodology and the multilevel decision tree network. The main risk factors identified for the Chongqing rail traffic system are the terrorist threat, emergency management, and aging infrastructure which need to be investigated as a priority to mitigate risk associated with these infrastructures.     

Allocation of performance shaping factors in the risk assessment of an offshore installation

Offshore oil production is one of the most important human productive activities. There are many risks associated with the process of constructing a subsea well, pumping oil to the platform, and transporting it to refineries via underwater pipes or oil tankers. All actions performed by workers in those operations are influenced by specific working conditions, involving the use of complex systems. Contextual factors such as high noise, low and high temperatures and hazardous chemicals are considered to be contributors to unsafe human actions in accident analysis and also give a basis for assessing human factors in safety analysis. Some failure modes are particularly dangerous and can result in severe accidents and damage to humans, the environment and material assets. Fires and explosions on oil rigs are some of the most devastating types of offshore accidents and can result in long-term consequences. The most typical root causes related to accidents include equipment failure, human error, environmental factors, work organization, training and, communication, among others. The principal objective of this study is to propose a methodological framework to identify the factors that affect the performance of operators of an offshore unit for oil processing and treatment. In this phase, an ergonomics approach based on operators' work analysis is used as a supporting tool. After identification of factors that affect the performance of operators, a decision-making model based on AHP (analytic hierarchy process) is applied to rank and weight the principal performance shaping factors (PSFs) that influence safe operations. The next step involves the use of the SHELLO model to group the main PSFs in elements named software, hardware, environment, liveware and organization. In the last phase, a relevant accident that occurred aboard a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel is analyzed. The allocation process of the factors that affect the operator's performance in risk assessment was developed through fuzzy logic and the ISO 17776 standard.     

Reliability evaluation of fire alarm systems using dynamic Bayesian networks and fuzzy fault tree analysis

In almost all industries, fire alarm systems play a vital role in the reducing the risks associated with fires and damages. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate their reliability and performance in emergency situations. The present study aimed to use fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the root causes involved in the failure of fire alarm systems, to use Fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to determine relative probabilities, and finally, to evaluate the reliability of a fire alarm system using dynamic Bayesian networks (BNs) during a thirty-six months period. A total of 29 basic events were detected from the FT. The reliability of the fire alarm system was estimated at 0.954 according to the FT and 0.957 according to conventional BNs. The reliability of the fire alarm system after 36 months was estimated at 0.375 according to dynamic BNs. All the events involved in the failure of fire alarm systems were drawn in the fault tree diagram. The results indicate that remodeling of these systems and simultaneous construction activities are the most important factors in the failure of the fire alarm system. System reliability can also be increased to 0.965 by providing preventive and control measures to reduce the probability of critical events.     

营区雨水集蓄利用效果评价模糊数学模型

本文以研究营区内雨水集蓄利用效果为目的。分析雨水集蓄利用不同方法,通过建立合理模糊数学模型,对各种雨水集蓄利用方法进行权重比较,得出最优结果。并将该模型用在营区雨水集蓄利用效果的评价分析,通过运算结果确定营区内雨水利用效果的优、良、中、差。通过运用模糊数学模型对营区内雨水集蓄利用方法进行分析,综合评价营区内雨水集蓄利用结果为良好。     

基于模糊数学的大气环境质量综合评价

鉴于大气环境质量评价中客观存在的不确定性和模糊性,运用模糊数学方法,选用SO2、NO2、PM10作为评价因子,参照大气环境质量标准,通过计算污染因子权重分配系数和隶属度对乌鲁木齐市2004年至2010年大气环境质量给出客观的评价,综合评价结果表明乌鲁木齐市总体大气环境质量为轻度污染(三级),但空气质量在逐年好转,SO2和PM10依然是乌鲁木齐市空气质量的制约因子,且NO2的权重在逐年上升。模糊综合评判考虑环境空气质量评价的模糊性,根据污染物浓度对各级别的贴近度考察污染物的级别,评价结果比较直观,可以细致准确的评价环境质量等级,评价结果基本可以反映环境空气污染的情况。     

基于模糊综合模型的湿地沉积物重金属污染评价

应用模糊综合-加权模型,以及温州市3个典型湿地沉积物中7种重金属含量数据,对温瑞塘河重金属污染进行评价。模糊综合评价结果表明,温州市居民区河流三垟湿地沉积物属于Ⅴ级重金属污染水平,主要污染元素为Zn和Cd;山前上游河段卧龙河沉积物为Ⅲ级污染,主要污染物是Cd。工业区河流牛桥底河沉积物虽然也是Ⅴ级,但是Cu、Cr、Ni、Zn和Cd 5种重金属污染分值为1.0,小于前2个典型河段的1.2和3.3。内梅罗指数法和潜在生态危害系数法评价结果显示,沉积物的重金属污染程度为牛桥底河三垟湿地卧龙河,这与模糊综合评价结果相符。     

潘集矿区塌陷水域水质评价及其综合利用

采煤塌陷水域是淮南潘集矿区一种特殊的地表水体.为了对潘集矿区塌陷水域进行水质评价和提供水资源综合利用的理论基础,选择了潘一矿区典型的两个塌陷水域,采用格网法布设39个采样点对水质进行全面采样监测,分析了水体的重金属元素和部分理化指标并运用数学模糊综合评判法对水质进行了评价.结果表明,封闭性较好的l'水域水质由水体中间向两岸呈递减趋势,中间断面水质为Ⅲ类;与泥河连通的2#水域水质较差,所有监测断面水质均为Ⅳ、Ⅴ类.由于矿业污染源的影响,导致2#水域的重金属元素污染强度高于1#水域.各塌陷水域均已受到不同程度污染,然而丰富的塌陷水资源若合理保护和综合开发利用可带来显著的环境效益和经济效益.     

Interval-parameter Fuzzy-stochastic Semi-infinite Mixed-integer Linear Programming for Waste Management under Uncertainty

An interval-parameter fuzzy-stochastic semi-infinite mixed-integer linear programming (IFSSIP) method is developed for waste management under uncertainties. The IFSSIP method integrates the fuzzy programming, chance-constrained programming, integer programming and interval semi-infinite programming within a general optimization framework. The model is applied to a waste management system with three disposal facilities, three municipalities, and three periods. Compared with the previous methods, IFSSIP have two major advantages. One is that it can help generate solutions for the stable ranges of the decision variables and objective function value under fuzzy satisfaction degree and different levels of probability of violating constraints, which are informative and flexible for solution users to interpret/justify. The other is that IFSSIP can not only handle uncertainties through constructing fuzzy and random parameter, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through interval function of time over the planning horizon. By comparing IFSSIP with interval-parameter mixed-integer linear semi-infinite programming and parametric programming, the IFSSIP method is more reasonable than others.