Fuzzy assessment of land suitability for scientific research reserves

Evaluating the characteristics of a set of sites as potential scientific research reserves is an example of land suitability assessment. Suitability in this case is based upon multiple criteria, many of which can be linguistically imprecise and often incompatible. Fuzzy logic is a useful method for characterizing imprecise suitability criteria and for combining criteria into an overall suitability rating. The Ecosystem Management Decision Support software combined a fuzzy logic knowledge base we developed to represent the assessment problem with a GIS database providing site-specific data for the assessment. Assessment of sites as a potential natural reserve for the new University of California campus at Merced demonstrates the benefits of fuzzy suitability assessment. The study was conducted in three stages of successively smaller assessment regions with increasingly fine spatial resolution and specificity of criteria. Several sites were identified that best satisfy the suitability criteria for a reserve to represent vernal pool habitat.     

基于层次模糊综合评判法的土地集约利用研究——以河北省永清县为例

土地集约节约利用越来越成为人们关注的问题，对其进行科学评价也成为焦点。通过对永清县乡镇土地集约利用状况的调查，构建了适合乡镇土地集约度评价的指标体系，采用AHP和模糊综合评判相结合的方法对乡镇土地集约度进行了评价。从而得出永清县土地利用集约度状况，为以后的发展提供借鉴依据。     

基于模糊神经网络的水稻农田重金属污染水平高光谱预测模型

以吉林省长春一汽厂附近3块不同重金属污染状况的水稻实验样地为例,通过地面实测获取了水稻的光谱反射率、叶片叶绿素含量、叶片及土壤重金属含量等数据.同时,在分析重金属对水稻叶片叶绿素含量影响的基础上,通过多元逐步回归分析选出对水稻叶片叶绿素含量微小变化指示灵敏的光谱参数作为模型输入层,并将水稻叶片叶绿素含量值作为输出层来表征农田重金属污染胁迫水平,最终建立了用于预测水稻农田重金属污染水平的模糊神经网络模型.结果表明,该模糊神经网络模型预测的水稻重金属污染胁迫水平与实测结果吻合度较高,预测的叶绿素含量值与实测值的拟合度较好(R2=0.985).表明在受重金属污染胁迫的情况下,水稻叶片叶绿素含量微小而复杂的变化可以通过构建模糊神经网络模型很好地模拟出来,从而确定出农田的重金属污染水平.     

水利项目环境影响综合评价

文章研究了模糊综合评价法在水利建设项目综合环境影响评价中的应用,以某水利工程为例建立了项目环境影响评价的指标体系,并对项目环境影响进行了综合评价,同时将建设项目环保措施的落实程度进行环境影响程度对比分析。结果表明,模糊综合评价方法是一种科学合理、简单可行的环境影响评价方法,可以在水利建设项目的环境影响评价中应用推广;同...     

基于熵权法的连云港市入海河流环境健康评价——以蔷薇河为例

建立包含压力-状态-响应要素的指标体系,采用基于熵权的模糊数学评价方法,运用相对隶属度算法评价在快速城市化胁迫下(2000～2007年)连云港市入海河流(以蔷薇河为例)相对健康程度,该方法避免了主观判断河流环境健康标准的不确定性.评价结果表明2000～2007年,连云港市蔷薇河相对健康整体大致呈下降趋势,最优年为200...     

A multivariable model for estimation of vapor cloud explosion occurrence possibility based on a Fuzzy logic approach for flammable materials

In this paper, a new method based on Fuzzy theory is presented to estimate the occurrence possibility of vapor cloud explosion (VCE) of flammable materials. This new method helps the analyst to overcome some uncertainties associated with estimating VCE possibility with the Event Tree (ET) technique. In this multi-variable model, the physical properties of the released material and the characteristics of the surrounding environment are used as the parameters specifying the occurrence possibility of intermediate events leading to a VCE. Factors such as area classification, degree of congestion of a plant and release rate are notably affecting the output results. Moreover, the proposed method benefits from experts' opinions in the estimation of the VCE possibility. A refrigeration cycle is used as the case study and the probability of VCE occurrence is determined for different scenarios. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed on the model parameters to assess their effect on the final values of the VCE possibility. Furthermore, the results are compared with the results obtained using other existing models.     

An extension to Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) application in petrochemical process industry

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique in risk management associated with identified hazards specific to focused fields. It is a comprehensive, structured and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing hazards of complex systems. To conduct a quantitative FTA, it is essential to have sufficient data. By considering the fact that sufficient data is not always available, the FTA method can be adopted into the problems under fuzzy environment, so called as Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA). This research extends FFTA methodology to petrochemical process industry in which fire, explosion and toxic gas releases are recognized as potential hazards. Specifically, the case study focuses on Deethanizer failure in petrochemical plant operations to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Consequently, the study has provided theoretical and practical values to challenge with operational data shortage in risk assessment.     

基于模糊数学的环境政策执行力评价方法研究

我国已形成较完整的环境政策体系,但在地方执行过程中却被"异化"、"弱化"了。探索性提出以模糊数学的方法定量评价地方政府对环境政策的执行力,从政策执行情况和执行效果两个方面构建环境政策执行力评价指标体系,并以南通市为例进行评价,南通市2009年环境政策的执行率数据不太理想,但是评价区域的环境质量、节能减排情况尚好,评价结果基本与客观事实相符。应用模糊数学的方法评价环境政策执行力是可行的,构建的评价指标体系也是合理的。     

A risk-based modelling approach to enhance shipping accident investigation

This paper developed a risk-based modelling approach to enhance the execution process of shipping accident investigation (SAI). Specifically, the paper addressed a fuzzy extended fault tree analysis (FFTA) that combines the effects of organizational faults and shipboard technical system failures under a unique risk assessment scheme. The case study illustrates that a novel idea behind the proposed methodology allows relevant accident investigators to clarify the probability of technical failures, operational misapplications, and legislative shortages leading to the shipping accident. The current SAI reports can be extended with an integrated risk assessment section to formulate integrated strategies along with risk control measures onboard ships. Since the consequences of shipping accidents are still a global concern, the paper addresses integration of a FFTA into SAI reports to ensure a consistent database and subsequent decision aid to accident analysis and prevention efforts in the maritime transportation industry.     

模糊综合评价法在油气管道跨越工程风险评价中的应用

油气管道跨越工程项目开工数量不断增加,随之而来的安全、环保事故也大量发生。油气管道跨越工程进行风险评价对项目的安全、环保实施具有重要意义。利用节点分析方法对油气管道跨越工程进行风险识别,针对风险识别结果利用模糊综合评价法进行评价,得到油气管道跨越工程各施工单元的安全级数,评价结论为工程的安全、环保管理提供科学的依据。评价方法具有一定的应用和推广价值。