基于标度转换的模糊层次分析法在宁夏灌区水权分配中的应用

随着宁夏引扬黄灌区经济的发展,建立一种新的水权分配模式势在必行。论文首先根据水权初始分配有效性、公平性与可持续性的原则,建立了水权初始分配指标体系,并构造了层次结构模型。然后,利用标度转化法,将互反性的"1～9标度"转化为互补性的"0.1～0.9九标度,"再利用后者与指标体系建立模糊互补判断矩阵,并对该矩阵进行模糊层次分析,从而将模糊层次分析法(FAHP)引入到了初始水权分配领域。最后,应用FAHP法对宁夏灌区的初始水权进行分配,获得了较为满意的结果。     

地表水环境质量评价方法实证及适用性分析

通过均值法、断面比例法、均值-灰色关联分析法、灰色关联分析-断面比例法、均值-模糊综合评价法、模糊综合评价-点位比例法6种方法对2013年全国地表水七大流域水质分别进行评价。结果表明:均值法和点位比例法差别在于多数流域出现水质类别变化,但变化方向并不一致;引入灰色关联分析和模糊综合评价后水质评价结果明显改善,但模糊综合评价在适用性和评价精度上更有优势。     

Quantifying reputation loss of pipeline operator from various stakeholders’ perspectives – Part 1: Prioritization

Quantifying reputation loss (RL) due to pipeline damage is commonly generalized based on the owner's definition. This one-way perspective of portraying RL is unfair and unrealistic and consequently miscalculates the impact assessment of pipeline damage; hence, inaccurate risk prediction. It is crucial to develop a model to quantify qualitative RL to avoid unpredicted risk. Thus, this article provides a framework for a procedure to calculate RL by utilizing the factors identified in a previous study. In this paper (Part 1), the prioritization of factors based on the stakeholders' perspectives is presented. The factors were grouped into stakeholder-influenced categories and prioritized by a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on the feedback gained from the stakeholders, i.e., investors, customers, employees and the public. The result shows that factor D3, “Accident severity”, was ranked highest by all stakeholders. The priority vector for each factor obtained was assigned as a weight of the factor. The pipeline owner's reputation loss model (RLM) is developed by applying the obtained priority vectors in the subsequent paper (Part 2). The developed model was verified by experts as a comprehensive, clear, objective, practical and moderately reliable model. The model was applied to a case study and eventually produced a lower risk value when compared with the currently used model. It is proven that RL factors can be quantitatively measured and can simultaneously improve pipeline damage impact assessment. Thus, a risk-based inspection schedule can be managed comprehensively.     

A Noisy-OR gate based fuzzy fault tree approach for micro-leakage evaluation of bolt-gasket-flange connection (BGFC)

In the natural gas gathering and transportation station, bolt-gasket-flange connection (BGFC) is the main connection mode, but due to its large number, the micro-leakage may result in serious consequences. For this reason, early BGFC micro-leakage evaluation can effectively assist decision-making and prevent the occurrence of accidents. To solve the problem of insufficient field data collection, we proposed a Noisy-OR gate based fuzzy fault tree approach, and calculated the corresponding minimum cut sets and the highest risk factors. Moreover, sensitivity analysis (SA) was used to determine that material problems (wear and corrosion of the sealing surface), man-made operation problems (bolts and flanges) and working conditions (pipe vibration and temperature fluctuations) are the key factors that contributing to the BGFC micro-leakage. In brief, the combination of the fuzzy fault tree analysis and Noisy-OR gate is an effective approach for BGFC micro-leakage evaluation, which is of great significance to the micro-leakage analysis, safe operation, and risk assessment of the gas station.     

Assessment and improvement of integrated HSE and macro-ergonomics factors by fuzzy cognitive maps: The case of a large gas refinery

This study analyzes and assesses the integrated health, safety, environment (HSE) and ergonomics (HSEE) factors by fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This is achieved through integrating ergonomic and macro-ergonomic as well as occupational health and safety arrangements in an integrated modeling for assessment of their multi-faceted impact on workers' productivity, injury rate and satisfaction. This paper uses FCM to assess the direct and indirect effects of HSEE factors on system performance indicators. The results of FCM are used to develop leading indicators useful for proactive management of productivity, injury rate, and job satisfaction. The result of a comprehensive survey of 37 experts in control rooms and maintenance activities in a large gas refinery is used to show the applicability and usefulness of FCM approach. Moreover, FCM results are used to determine the causal structure of HSEE factors and system performance indicators. It is concluded that macro-ergonomics factors such as instructions and education, familiarity with organization's rules, and proper communications most contribute to improve workers' safety, satisfaction, and productivity.     

Risk assessment of an oxygen-enhanced combustor using a structural model based on the FMEA and fuzzy fault tree

The oxygen-enhanced combustor has the advantages of high burning efficiency and low emissions. However, it should not be promoted for industrial use until its reliability and safety have been fully recognized. A new methodology is proposed to assess the risk of an oxygen-enhanced combustor using a structural model based on the FMEA and fuzzy fault tree. In addition, it is applied to a selected pilot semi-industrial combustor. To identify the hazard source comprehensively, the pilot is divided into four subsystems: the combustor subsystem, feed subsystem, ignition subsystem and exhaust subsystem. According to the operational parameters of flow (flow rate, temperature and pressure) and the component functions in different subsystems, the cause and effect matrix can be built using the structural model, and the relationship between the operational parameters and the effects of the change for the operational parameters on the system can be presented. Based on the results of cause and effect matrix, the FMEA can be built to describe the failed models and accident scenarios of the pilot. The main accident forms include leakage, injury, fire and explosion. Accordingly, with the severity and probability analysis of different accident forms, the fire and explosion accidents should be further accessed quantitatively using the fuzzy fault tree analysis. The fault trees can be obtained in accordance with the FMEA, and the qualitative assessments of the basic events can be collected by using expert scoring. A hybrid approach for the fuzzy set theory and weight analysis is investigated to quantify the occurrence probability of basic events. Then, the importance analysis of the fault trees, including the hazard importance of basic events and the cut set importance, is performed to help determine the weak links of the fire and explosion trees. Finally, some of the most effective measures are presented to improve the reliability and safety of the combustion system.     

红枫湖富营养化模糊评价

以红枫湖为例,论述水体富营养化模糊综合评价过程。结果表明,红枫湖属于中营养化,富营养化趋势得到遏制;证明模糊评价法应用于水体富营养化评价是可行的;揭示湖泊富营养化评价应结合多种方法进行研究,使评价结果更趋于合理。     

Fuzzy risk assessment of oil and gas offshore wells

Risk evaluation of offshore wells is a challenging task, given that much of the available data is highly uncertain and vague, and many of the mechanisms are complex and difficult to understand. Consequently, a systematic approach is required to handle both quantitative and qualitative data as well as means to update existing information when new knowledge and data become available. Each Basic Risk Item (BRI) in a hierarchical framework is expressed as a fuzzy number, which is a combination of the likelihood of a failure event and the associated failure consequence. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to estimate weights required for grouping non-commensurate risk sources. Evidential Reasoning (ER) is employed to incorporate new data for updating existing risk estimates. It is envisaged that the proposed approach could serve as a basis for benchmarking acceptable risks in offshore wells.     

城市自然灾害风险评价的二级模型

利用模糊集方法建立了城市自然灾害风险评价的二级模型。二级模型适用于单一致灾因子的分析。结合文[1]提出的一级模型,即可构成完整的城市自然灾害风险评价体系。     

Fuzzy Logic Model for the performance benchmarking of sugar plants by considering best available techniques

This paper deals with the problem of performance benchmarking of traditional beet sugar plants, by considering Best Available Techniques (BAT) for beet sugar production, as determined by the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) Directive. A Fuzzy Logic Model, based on fuzzy set theory, was constructed for this purpose, in order to compare the performances of sugar plants within the sector's best standards, as expressed in the Reference Document on BAT.The effectiveness of the model was tested in the case study, in which three sugar plants were benchmarked against the BAT regarding the consumption of energy, water, raw materials and the production of wastes, wastewater, by-products and the main product. The model was recognized as helpful for the benchmarking needs of sugar plants. In addition, by integrating BAT Reference Document analysis into the model, it provides IPPC permitting authorities with an objective method and uniform BAT benchmarks to manage permitting process.