事故损失预估方法的探讨

应用模糊数学的方法来评估企业的安全状况 ,在此基础上预估企业事故发生的概率及其可能产生的损失 ,为可靠地评价安全投资项目效益创造条件     

How to treat expert judgment? With certainty it contains uncertainty!

To be acceptably safe one must identify the risks one is exposed to and decide what risk reducing measures are required. It is uncertain whether the threat really will materialize, but determining the size and probability of the risk is also full of uncertainty. When performing an analysis and preparing for decision making under uncertainty, quite frequently failure rate data, information on consequence severity or on a probability value, yes, even on the possibility that an event can or cannot occur, is lacking. In those cases, a possible way and sometimes the only way to proceed is to revert to expert judgment. Even in case historical data is available, an expert can be asked whether and to what extent such data still hold in the current situation.Anyhow, expert elicitation comes with an uncertainty depending on the expert's reliability, which becomes very visible when two or more experts give different answers or even conflicting answers. This is not a new problem, and very bright minds have thought how to tackle this in a rational and objective way. But so far, however, the topic has not been given much attention in daily process safety and risk assessment practice. Therefore, this paper has a review and applied character and will present various approaches with detailed explanation and examples.     

An integrated methodology to manage risk factors of aging urban oil and gas pipelines

Aging urban oil and gas pipelines have a high failure probability due to their structural degradation and external interference. The operational safety of the aging urban oil and gas pipeline is challenged by different hazards. This paper proposes a novel methodology by integrating an index-based risk evaluation system and fuzzy TOPSIS model for risk management of aging urban oil and gas pipelines, and it is carried out by evaluating the priority of hazards affecting pipeline safety. Firstly, the hazard factors of aging urban oil and gas pipelines are identified to establish an index-based risk evaluation system. Subsequently, the fuzzy TOPSIS model is employed to evaluate the importance of these hazard factors and to decide which factors should be managed with priority. This work measures the importance of a hazard factor from three aspects, i.e. occurrence (O), severity (S) and detectability (D), and the weights of these three parameters are determined by a combination weight method. Eventually, the proposed methodology is tested by an industrial case to illustrate its effectiveness, and some safety strategies to reduce the operational risk of the pipeline are presented. The proposed methodology is a useful tool to implement more efficient risk management of aging urban oil and gas pipelines.     

Cost-based fire risk assessment in natural gas industry by means of fuzzy FTA and ETA

Fire is the most prevalent accident in natural gas facilities. In order to assess the risk of fire in a gas processing plant, a fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) has been developed in this paper. By utilizing FTA and ETA, the paths leading to an outcome event would be visually demonstrated. The framework was applied to a case study of processing plant in South Pars gas complex. All major underlying causes of fire accident in a gas processing facility determined through a process hazard analysis (PHA). Fuzzy logic has been employed to derive likelihood of basic events in FTA from uncertain opinion of experts. The outcome events in event tree has been simulated by computer model to evaluate their severity. In the proposed methodology the calculated risk has the unit of cost per year which allows the decision makers to discern the benefit of their investment in safety measures and risk mitigation.     

青藏工程走廊水环境安全保护等级区划研究

采用模糊数学综合评判法和突变级数法对青藏工程水环境安全的保护等级进行分区评价与研究,结果表明:青藏工程走廊带沿线水环境分为一级、二级和三级保护区3个区域,其中一级区范围为青藏高速公路拉萨—安多段,二级区范围为青藏高速公路安多—茶错段,三级区范围为青藏高速公路茶错—格尔木段;青藏工程走廊水环境安全保护路段共计408.92 km,安全保护等级高,占路线全长的35.56%。建议拉萨—安多全段,以及安多—茶错段部分路(桥)面通过工程措施和非工程措施相结合的方式实现路(桥)面径流污染控制,有效降低路(桥)面径流对走廊带水环境的影响。     

代表性水质评价方法的比较研究

从太湖流域国控断面常规监测数据出发,利用代表性水质评价方法对各断面进行评价,系统分析比较这些方法的优缺点。结果显示:①单因子指数法评价结果比较保守;②内梅罗指数法将"1"作为清洁与污染的分界点,指数偏小;③灰色关联分析法水质指标权重系数的确定较模糊综合评判法合理,结果也更接近于综合水质标志指数法;④综合水质标志指数法评价结果与其它评价方法结果重合度最高,且模糊评判法、灰色关联分析法和BP-ANN法的评价结果均向综合水质标志指数法逼近。综合水质标志指数法以单因子指数法为基础,对劣Ⅴ类水进行细化,将恶臭对水质的不利影响考虑其中,其指数组成合理,且易于操作施行。     

模糊矩阵法在校园声环境质量评价中的应用

由于噪声及其感受主体均具有不确定性的特点,拟采用模糊综合评价方法对声环境质量进行评价,从而使评价结果更具客观性和合理性。本文通过对S大学声环境质量的现状监测并结合在校师生主观感受调查结果,运用模糊矩阵法对校园声环境质量进行综合评价,并对校园声环境质量与教学生活的适宜度进行了分析论证。     

Fuzzy pricing for urban water resources: model construction and application

A rational water price system plays a crucial role in the optimal allocation of water resources. In this paper, a fuzzy pricing model for urban water resources is presented, which consists of a multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model and a water resources price (WRP) computation model. Various factors affecting WRP are comprehensively evaluated with multiple levels and objectives in the multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model, while the price vectors of water resources are constructed in the WRP computation model according to the definition of the bearing water price index, and then WRP is calculated. With the incorporation of an operator's knowledge, it considers iterative weights and subjective preference of operators for weight-assessment. The weights determined are more rational and the evaluation results are more realistic. Particularly, dual water supply is considered in the study. Different prices being fixed for water resources with different qualities conforms to the law of water resources value (WRV) itself. A high-quality groundwater price computation model is also proposed to provide optimal water allocation and to meet higher living standards. The developed model is applied in Jinan for evaluating its validity. The method presented in this paper offers some new directions in the research of WRP.     

A fuzzy analytic network process for multi-criteria evaluation of contaminated site remedial countermeasures

The Analytic Network Process (ANP) has been proposed to incorporate interdependence and feedback effect in the prioritization of remedial countermeasures using a hierarchical network decision model, but this approach seems to be incapable of capturing the vagueness and fuzziness during value judgment elicitation. The aim of this paper is to present an evaluation method using a fuzzy ANP (FANP) approach to address this shortcoming. Triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN) and their degree of fuzziness are used in the semantic scale as human judgment expressed in natural language is most often vague and fuzzy. The method employs the alpha-cuts, interval arithmetic and optimism index to transform the fuzzy comparative judgment matrix into set of crisp matrices, and then calculates the desired priorities using the eigenvector method. A numerical example, which was drawn from a real-life case study of an uncontrolled landfill in Japan, is presented to demonstrate the process. Results from the sensitivity analysis describe how the fuzziness in judgment could affect the solution robustness of the prioritization method. The proposed FANP approach therefore could effectively deal with the uncertain judgment inherent in the decision making process and derive the meaningful priorities explicitly from a complex decision structure in the evaluation of contaminated site remedial countermeasures.     

基于模糊数学的贡嘎山景区燕子沟景群旅游开发项目环境质量评价

应用模糊综合评价的方法进行环境质量评价,能较传统方法提供更多信息。本文将模糊数学的方法首次应用于贡嘎山景区燕子沟景群区环境质量综合评价,选择线性模糊分布确定隶属函数,并采用标准加权法计算权重因子,以消除评价因子实测浓度的影响。分别采用两类算子模型进行评价,结果均表明评价区总体环境质量属于清洁型。