基于模糊综合分析法的引调水工程水质响应关系分析

为提升引调水工程的环境改善效果,须对水体的自身连通水平、水质现状、水环境主要影响因子进行分析。以太湖流域跃进联圩为研究对象,利用图论连通度理论对研究区域静态基流连通性进行评价,探索圩内水系连通性的空间差异及变化特性。同时,开展短期引调水实验,结合模糊综合分析法评价引调水带来的圩内水质变化情况及规律,研究圩内水环境和水系连通性的响应关系。结果表明,模糊综合评价法在引调水环境改善分析中具有适用性,可实现对圩内各监测点位水质变化的全面分析;水体流动性是影响圩区内水质的重要环境因素,高锰酸盐指数是导致圩内水质恶化的主要影响因子。引调水工程对圩区水环境具有一定的持续改善性作用,但对基流连通性较差的区域,改善效果有限。     

Emergy-based fuzzy optimization approach for water reuse in an eco-industrial park

The establishment of an eco-industrial park (EIP) provides opportunity for individual plants to cooperate with each other in order to utilize resources efficiently and thus reduce waste. The goal of an EIP is to “close the loop” through recycling and reuse of material and energy streams. Studies show with current freshwater consumption trends there would be water stress aggravated by global warming in the near future. This paper presents a model to design an EIP water reuse network that considers overall system sustainability as measured with emergy, as well as cost saving desired by individual plants. Case studies from literature are then solved to illustrate the advantage of this method in decision making. The illustrative examples show how the model achieves a compromise among the potentially conflicting fuzzy goals of the various EIP stakeholders.     

Application of fuzzy logic to explosion risk assessment

Safety and health of workers potentially being at risk from explosive atmospheres are regulated by separate regulations (ANSI/AIHA in USA and ATEX in the European Union). The ANSI/AIHA does not require risk assessment whereas it is compulsory for ATEX. There is no standard method to do that assessment. For that purpose we have applied the explosion Layer of Protection Analysis (ExLOPA), which enables semi-quantitative risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The ExLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA taking into account an explosion accident scenario at workplace. That includes typical variables appropriate for workplace explosion like occurrence of the explosive atmosphere, the presence of effective ignition sources, activity of the explosion prevention and mitigation independent protection layers as well as the severity of consequences. All those variables are expressed in the form of qualitative linguistic categories and relations between them are presented using expert based engineering knowledge, expressed in the form of appropriate set of rules. In this way the category of explosion risk may be estimated by the semi-quantitative analysis. However, this simplified method is connected with essential uncertainties providing over or under estimation of the explosion risk and may not provide real output data.In order to overcome this problem and receive more detailed quantitative results, the fuzzy logic system was applied. In the first stage called fuzzification, all linguistic categories of the variables are mapped by fuzzy sets. In the second stage, the number of relation between all variables of analysis are determined by the enumerative combinatorics and the set of the 810 fuzzy rules “IF-THEN” is received. Each rule enables determination of the fuzzy risk level for a particular accident scenario. In the last stage, called defuzzification, the crisp value of final risk is obtained using a centroid method. The final result of the risk presents a contribution of each risk category represented by the fuzzy sets (A, TA, TNA and NA) and is therefore more precise and readable than the traditional approach producing one category of risk only. Fuzzy logic gives a possibility of better insights into hazards and safety phenomena for each explosion risk scenario. It is not possible to receive such conclusions from the traditional ExLOPA calculation results. However it requires the application of computer-aided analyses which may be partially in conflict with a simplicity of ExLOPA.The practical example provides a comparison between the traditional results obtained by ExLOPA and by fuzzy ExLOPA methods.     

民航空管质量安全监察人员胜任能力模型研究

以空管政事分离改革后民航空管质量安全监察人员胜任事业单位内部质量安全监察职责为目标,从教育、培训、技能和经验四个方面分析构成民航空管质量安全监察人员胜任能力的因素,并构建了胜任能力指标体系.运用网络分析法(ANP)构建了民航质量安全监察人员胜任能力的网络结构模型;利用三角模糊数(FUZZY)对网络结构模型中各个因素进行重要度比较,得到权重向量.鉴于评价指标之间存在的较强的关联性,利用非线性加权综合法,构建了民航空管质量安全监察人员胜任能力模型,该模型对评价指标中取值较小的指标反应灵敏,能够更好地体现不同监察人员之间胜任能力的差异.利用该模型对某空管单位来自于不同背景的5名监察人员进行评价,结果与上一年度该空管单位的绩效考核结果一致,证明了模型的合理性.     

An assessment of organizational resilience potential in SMEs of the process industry,a fuzzy approach

In order to establish adequate tools for the modern business environment, and with a need for new mechanisms with the goal of overcoming crisis and emerging disorder, the concept of organizational resilience has emerged. A high level of organizational resilience represents one of an organization's target values during a normal period of operation. In a period of crisis, the presence of resilience is even more needed; this is emphasized in the process industry because in these conditions when one process fails it may cause significant problems in other processes. The contribution of this paper is shown through a fuzzy mathematical model for assessment of organizational resilience potential in SMEs of the process industry. The model is verified through an illustrative example where obtained data suggest measures which should enhance business strategy and improve organizational resilience factors. This study forms the basis for a survey that may include a significant number of organizations from one region and future improvement based on benchmark and knowledge sharing.     

Fuzzy fault tree analysis for fire and explosion of crude oil tanks

Crude oil tank fire and explosion (COTFE) is the most frequent type of accident in petroleum refineries, oil terminals or storage which often results in human fatality, environment pollution and economic loss. In this paper, with fault tree qualitative analysis technique, various potential causes of the COTFE are identified and a COTFE fault tree is constructed. Conventional fault tree quantitative analysis calculates the occurrence probability of the COTFE using exact probability data of the basic events. However, it is often very difficult to obtain corresponding precise data and information in advance due to insufficient data, changing environment or new components. Fuzzy set theory has been proven to be effective on such uncertain problems. Hence, this article investigates a hybrid approach of fuzzy set theory and fault tree analysis to quantify the COTFE fault tree in fuzzy environment and evaluate the COTFE occurrence probability. Further, importance analysis for the COTFE fault tree, including the Fussell–Vesely importance measure of basic events and the cut sets importance measure, is performed to help identifying the weak links of the crude oil tank system that will provide the most cost-effective mitigation. Also, a case study and analysis is provided to testify the proposed method.     

A novel chemical product design framework with the integration of safety and health aspects

Computer-aided molecular design (CAMD) technique is a powerful tool for the design of molecules that meet a set of desirable properties. In most of the CAMD problems, the molecular physical and thermodynamic properties are often selected as the target properties, while safety and health aspects were not taken into consideration. However, certain chemical substances may cause adverse effects to human's health after prolonged and repeated exposure. Therefore, in order to ensure that the generated molecule does not bring harm and health-related risks to the consumers, it is crucial to incorporate both inherent safety and health into the existing CAMD techniques. In this work, a novel chemical product design methodology has been developed to integrate both safety and health aspects into the CAMD framework presented by a single optimisation model. The measurement of safety and health indicators are based on the molecular properties that have impact on both of these aspects. Each property is assigned with an index or penalty value based on the degree of potential hazards. A molecule with a higher index value has a higher hazard level and vice versa. Hence, a molecule that satisfies the target properties and has a low penalty value will be selected as the most reasonable choice. This new approach ensures that a product that possesses the desirable properties, and at the same time meets the safety and health criteria, is produced. A case study on the solvent design for gas sweetening process has been carried out to determine the optimal molecule.     

Characterization of particulate products for aging of ethylbenzene secondary organic aerosol in the presence of ammonium sulfate seed aerosol

Aging of secondary organic aerosol(SOA) particles formed from OH– initiated oxidation of ethylbenzene in the presence of high mass(100–300 μg/m~3) concentrations of(NH_4)_2SO_4seed aerosol was investigated in a home-made smog chamber in this study.The chemical composition of aged ethylbenzene SOA particles was measured using an aerosol laser time-of-flight mass spectrometer(ALTOFMS) coupled with a Fuzzy C-Means(FCM) clustering algorithm.Experimental results showed that nitrophenol,ethyl-nitrophenol,2,4-dinitrophenol,methyl glyoxylic acid,5-ethyl-6-oxo-2,4-hexadienoic acid,2-ethyl-2,4-hexadiendioic acid,2,3-dihydroxy-5-ethyl-6-oxo-4-hexenoic acid,1H-imidazole,hydrated N-glyoxal substituted1H-imidazole,hydrated glyoxal dimer substituted imidazole,1H-imidazole-2-carbaldehyde,N-glyoxal substituted hydrated 1H-imidazole-2-carbaldehyde and high-molecular-weight(HMW) components were the predominant products in the aged particles.Compared to the previous aromatic SOA aging studies,imidazole compounds,which can absorb solar radiation effectively,were newly detected in aged ethylbenzene SOA in the presence of high concentrations of(NH_4)_2SO_4seed aerosol.These findings provide new information for discussing aromatic SOA aging mechanisms.     

Water quality assessment in Qu River based on fuzzy water pollution index method

A fuzzy improved water pollution index was proposed based on fuzzy inference system and water pollution index. This method can not only give a comprehensive water quality rank, but also describe the water quality situation with a quantitative value, which is convenient for the water quality comparison between the same ranks. This proposed method is used to assess water quality of Qu River in Sichuan, China. Data used in the assessment were collected from four monitoring stations from 2006 to 2010. The assessment results show that Qu River water quality presents a downward trend and the overall water quality in 2010 is the worst. The spatial variation indicates that water quality of Nanbashequ section is the pessimal. For the sake of comparison, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and grey relational method were also employed to assess water quality of Qu River. The comparisons of these three approaches'' assessment results show that the proposed method is reliable.     

大型商圈安全评价体系及案例研究*

为整体评价大型商圈的安全性,结合公共安全科技三角形理论,从突发事件的危险性、承灾载体的脆弱性、应急能力3方面构建大型商圈安全评价指标体系,通过网络分析法和模糊综合评价法确定指标间权重系数,对大型商圈进行安全风险评价。结果表明:体系全面考虑了大型商圈安全风险影响因素及其内在关系,可为大型商圈安全评价体系构建和定量评估提供参考。