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31.
Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India. 相似文献
32.
Fuzzy cognitive mapping was used to develop a participatory ecosystem management plan for Uluabat Lake, Turkey. Interviews
were conducted with stakeholders belonging to six different groups. Lake pollution was the most central and most mentioned
variable for stakeholders. Stakeholder groups agree that lake pollution is negatively affecting ecosystem health and thereby
local economies. Thus, reducing lake pollution was chosen as the overall goal for the management plan. Possible ways to reduce
lake pollution and increase ecosystem health were seen differently by the different groups. Hunters, factory managers, NGO
personnel, and local people thought industry was the main cause of lake pollution, while officials from the government and
local municipalities thought roads and urban development contributed the most to lake pollution. Generally the stakeholder
groups did not perceive their own actions as affecting the lake as strongly as other groups thought. For example, factory
managers viewed factory pollution as negatively affecting the lake but less strongly than the other groups did. According
to policy option simulations, reducing lake pollution had positive effects on all variables, especially fish, birds, animal
husbandry, irrigation, agriculture, and the ecological balance of the lake. Results of this analysis were used to facilitate
meetings among stakeholder groups and to develop a participatory ecosystem management plan. The analysis was useful for pointing
out the similarities as well as the differences among the groups. It also helped the facilitators understand the focus of
each stakeholder group and enabled them to suggest activities in which each group would want to participate. 相似文献
33.
A relative significance factor (f
i
) of an impact category is the external weight of the impact category. The objective of this study is to propose a systematic
and easy-to-use method for the determination of f
i
. Multiattribute decision-making (MADM) methods including the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), the rank-order centroid
method, and the fuzzy method were evaluated for this purpose. The results and practical aspects of using the three methods
are compared. Each method shows the same trend, with minor differences in the value of f
i
. Thus, all three methods can be applied to the determination of f
i
. The rank order centroid method reduces the number of pairwise comparisons by placing the alternatives in order, although
it has inherent weakness over the fuzzy method in expressing the degree of vagueness associated with assigning weights to
criteria and alternatives. The rank order centroid method is considered a practical method for the determination of f
i
because it is easier and simpler to use compared to the AHP and the fuzzy method. 相似文献
34.
涂层大气腐蚀的模糊综合评定 总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7
此文将模糊理论应用于涂层的大气腐蚀试验,针对对比性腐蚀试验结果,提出了涂层保护性能大气腐蚀模糊综合评定方法。本法具有简捷、迅速、准确等优点。 相似文献
35.
This paper describes a fuzzy hierarchical analytic approach to determine the weighting of subjective judgments. In addition,
it presents a nonadditive fuzzy integral technique to evaluate a green engineering industry case as a fuzzy multicriteria
decision-making (FMCDM) problem. When the investment strategies are evaluated from various aspects, such as economic effectiveness,
technical feasibility, and environmental regulation, it can be regarded as an FMCDM problem. Since stakeholders cannot clearly
estimate each considered criterion in terms of numerical values for the anticipated alternatives/strategies, fuzziness is
considered to be applicable. Consequently, this paper uses triangular fuzzy numbers to establish weights and anticipated achievement
values. By ranking fuzzy weights and fuzzy synthetic utility values, we can determine the relative importance of criteria
and decide the best strategies. This paper applies what is called a λ fuzzy measure and nonadditive fuzzy integral technique
to evaluate the synthetic performance of green engineering strategies for aquatic products processors in Taiwan. In addition,
we demonstrate that the nonadditive fuzzy integral is an effective evaluation and appears to be appropriate, especially when
the criteria are not independent. 相似文献
36.
TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Schlüter M Rüger N Savitsky AG Novikova NM Matthies M Lieth H 《Environmental management》2006,38(4):638-653
The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing
issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic
deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has
been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological
effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model
with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions
are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed
by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of
scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28
years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local
expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for
discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their
integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool,
we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment
and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource
management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become
increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management. 相似文献
37.
The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies. 相似文献
38.
Although many studies on municipal solid waste management (MSW management) were conducted under uncertain conditions of fuzzy, stochastic, and interval coexistence, the solution to the conventional linear programming problems of integrating fuzzy method with the other two was inefficient. In this study, a fuzzy-stochastic-interval linear programming (FSILP) method is developed by integrating Nguyen's method with conventional linear programming for supporting municipal solid waste management. The Nguyen's method was used to convert the fuzzy and fuzzy-stochastic linear programming problems into the conventional linear programs, by measuring the attainment values of fuzzy numbers and/or fuzzy random variables, as well as superiority and inferiority between triangular fuzzy numbers/triangular fuzzy-stochastic variables. The developed method can effectively tackle uncertainties described in terms of probability density functions, fuzzy membership functions, and discrete intervals. Moreover, the method can also improve upon the conventional interval fuzzy programming and two-stage stochastic programming approaches, with advantageous capabilities that are easily achieved with fewer constraints and significantly reduces consumption time. The developed model was applied to a case study of municipal solid waste management system in a city. The results indicated that reasonable solutions had been generated. The solution can help quantify the relationship between the change of system cost and the uncertainties, which could support further analysis of tradeoffs between the waste management cost and the system failure risk. 相似文献
39.
本文把模糊线性规划方法引入灾害对策的研究当中。着重讨论了疏散人口和疏散地点间的关系,简单介绍了模糊疏散距离及其初步确定方法。 相似文献
40.
IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization. 相似文献