主成分分析法在煤矿事故统计分析中的应用

为了研究我国煤矿各类事故之间的相互关系,运用主成分分析法对我国煤矿事故数据进行了统计分析,计算得到煤矿事故类型的第一主成分和第二主成分,并进一步分析了煤矿事故的主要类型以及各类事故之间的相互联系,对制定相应的煤矿事故预防措施具有一定的指导作用。     

基于强度折减法的港珠澳大桥沉管隧道干坞工程高边坡稳定性分析

在列举和分析比较当前岩土工程领域边坡稳定性分析的各种主要方法的基础上,概述了强度折减法的基本原理、主要特点和优势,并以港珠澳大桥沉管隧道干坞大型临时工程拟建场地的岩质高边坡为实例,应用强度折减法基于FLAC3D软件对该边坡的稳定性进行了计算和分析,确定了边界条件和强度参数,计算了该边坡的安全系数,结果表明自然工况下边坡处于稳定状态,底部开挖以后边坡趋于欠稳定状态,同时指出了边坡的关键变形部位,可为后续的设计和施工提供参考。     

深水河大桥桥墩边坡稳定性分析

深水河大桥桥墩边坡地处广乐高速深水河大桥段,其稳定性直接关系着桥墩桩基工程能否顺利施工和整段广乐高速的工程进度。本文采用定性分析和定量计算的方法对深水河大桥桥墩边坡稳定性进行了分析,定性分析主要是通过赤平投影法作图初步分析边坡局部可能出现的组合滑面破坏模式,再取典型的楔形体进行破坏模式分析,定量计算主要是采用Bishop法分别计算该边坡在不同工况下的稳定系数,从而对该边坡的整体稳定性进行评价,以便提出相应的治理措施。     

基于ANFIS模型的基坑工程位移反分析

在软土地基深基坑开挖支护工程的设计与施工中,岩土体力学参数的取值问题是关键。基于MATLAB(R2007a)模糊工具箱中的自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)对基坑岩土体力学参数进行了位移反演分析,并结合汉口火车站出站厅基坑工程实例,动态反演了具体参数,检验了反演精度,从而验证了该方法用于基坑工程位移反分析的可行性及工程适用性。     

京杭大运河苏州高新区段水质污染状况研究

以2005—2010年京杭大运河苏州高新区段水质监测数据为基础,运用内梅罗综合污染指数法以及采取方差分析对京杭大运河苏州高新区段水质的主要污染因子及其变化趋势进行了研究,并对京杭大运河水质污染状况进行了综合评价。结果表明:京杭大运河苏州高新区段主要污染物为氨氮、总磷;氨氮浓度在2006—2010年间虽有明显下降,但仍超过《地表水环境质量标准》(GB3838—2002)IV类水质要求,为劣V类水,总磷亦有明显下降,但在2008—2010年3年间其浓度略有波动,在IV类和V类水质之间浮动;2005—2008年间其水质处于污染状态,2009—2010年水质较好,为轻污染。该研究结果可为苏州高新区河流水环境治理提供科学依据。     

桔柑隧道进口段塌方原因分析与处理措施

通过对桔柑隧道进口浅埋段塌方前掌子面的状态与前期施工工序的追溯,详细分析了隧道塌方前出现的各种征兆,并对其塌方机理进行了分析与计算,提出了较为有效的解决初喷混凝土在涌水量较大的情况下与岩壁的结合问题,以及如何选择隧道开挖方式、对大断面铁路隧道穿越浅埋段的处理方案,并最终成功穿越该段,为类似工程提供了借鉴。     

The predictive validity of safety climate

PROBLEM: Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. METHODS: This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. RESULTS: Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.     

Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander <Emphasis Type="Italic">Speleomantes strinatii</Emphasis>

Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993–2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.     

基于组织因素的航空安全评价与分析

基于组织因素,从事故类型出发寻找影响航空安全的因素,并采用层次分析法进行评价,得出各个指标因素的权重,确定机组、天气、公司管理是事故链中居于前3位的因素.对机组提出采用"PACE进谏法"和建立人为失误数据库进行训练等建议;针对天气提出改进气象装备,尽早预测并采取措施等建议;对公司管理提出借鉴瑞典航空公司的事前评估、自愿报告免责制度以及安全旁听制度等建议.     

鼓风机叶轮快速断裂的检测及失效分析

针对焦化厂鼓风机叶轮运行近15 d后产生穿透性裂纹、并延伸至叶轮半径2/3处的严重断裂事故,采用具有早期缺陷诊断功能的金属磁记忆新技术及其他多种手段,从宏观力学及微观机理角度对其进行综合性能评定及失效分析.研究结果表明,叶轮材料强度、韧性均过低,且韧性指标分散性大、同类型试样的韧性指标最大值与最小值之间相差3倍多;金相组织晶粒粗大,断口表现为脆性开裂.沿叶轮的断裂与非断裂面分别进行磁记忆扫描,磁场强度分析表明,断裂面内存在两处具有明显应力集中的危险源.分析表明,锻造及锻后热处理不良造成了快速疲劳断裂.最后,结合5年中3次叶轮断裂事故,对失效原因进行了相关性分析.