Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District

Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources.     

Shrub Encroachment Impacts the Potential for Multiple Use Conflicts on Public Land

Public rangelands in North America are typically managed under a multiple use policy that includes livestock grazing and wildlife management. In this article we report on the landscape level extent of grassland loss to shrub encroachment in a portion of the Rocky Mountain Forest Reserve in southwestern Alberta, Canada, and review the associated implications for simultaneously supporting livestock and wildlife populations while maintaining range health on this diminishing vegetation type. Digitized aerial photographs of 12 km of valley bottom from 1958 and 1974 were co-registered to ortho-rectified digital imagery taken in 1998, and an un-supervised classification used to determine areas associated with grassland and shrubland in each year. Field data from 2002 were over-layed using GPS coordinates to refine the classification using a calibration-validation procedure. Over the 40-year study period, open grasslands declined from 1,111 ha in 1958 to 465 ha in 1998, representing a 58% decrease. Using mean production data for grass and shrub dominated areas we then quantified aggregate changes in grazing capacity of both primary (grassland) and secondary (shrubland) habitats for livestock and wildlife. Total declines in grazing capacity from 1958 to 1998 totaled 2,744 Animal Unit Months (AUMs) of forage (−39%), including a 58% decrease in primary (i.e., open grassland) range, which was only partly offset by the availability of 1,357 AUMs within less productive and less accessible shrubland habitats. Our results indicate shrub encroachment has been extensive and significantly reduced forage availability to domestic livestock and wildlife, and will increase the difficulty of conserving remaining grasslands. Although current grazing capacities remain marginally above those specified by regulated grazing policies, it is clear that continued habitat change and decreases in forage availability are likely to threaten the condition of remaining grasslands. Unless shrub encroachment is arrested or grassland restoration initiated, reductions in aggregate ungulate numbers may be necessary.

Costs and benefits of improving wild salmon passage in a regulated river

This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of a trade-off between salmon and hydropower production in the Ume/Vindel River, northern Sweden. A distinctive element of this analysis is that estimated changes in resource conditions are based on detailed river-specific data. A salmon population model was used to develop the scenario and a novel willingness to pay (WTP) question, which caters for uncertainty in a different manner, provided an interval estimate. Non-use values are the major contributors to the benefit (96–517 millions of Swedish kronor (MSEK)) of increasing the stock of wild salmon. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the opportunity costs in terms of lost electricity are typically higher than the estimated benefits.     

土壤中钙、镁的形态分析及提取序列的研究

本文采用改进的BCR三步连续提取法对河北某食道癌高发地土壤中钙、镁进行了形态分析及提取序列的研究。实验表明：该地区土壤中镁主要以残渣态形式存在（占总量的83.66％-88.36％）,钙则受提取序列的影响很大,在第一提取序列中,以酸溶态为主（74.11％-83.38％）;第二提取序列中,以有机物结合态为主（78.12％-97.17％）;第三、四提取序列中,以氧化物结合态为主（87.49％-103％）。提取剂的加入顺序明显影响到钙的各个形态的真实含量。     

生态岛建设过程中环境类指标构建研究——以崇明岛为例

提出了将压力 状态 响应（PSR）模型与系统分析法理论集成起来构建生态岛建设过程中环境类指标的方法和步骤。指标构建过程分为4个步骤：（1）首先利用已有生态区域（岛）相关环境类指标确定备选指标集;（2）利用PSR模型对指标逻辑关系进行分析筛选;（3）以2010年为近期目标年,利用系统分析法确定指标核心要素,得到二次筛选指标;（4）以2030年为远期目标年,以综合性和动态性为依据确定最终指标。以上海市崇明岛为例,确定水、气、土为核心考核要素,构建了基于崇明生态岛建设过程的近期及远期目标的环境类考核指标体系。指标评价结果表明,崇明生态岛建设过程中环境类综合指数为72,其中环境压力指数、环境质量指数、环境保护指数分别为85、80和51,与崇明岛实际较为吻合。部分研究结果已在崇明岛生态建设过程中得到实际应用。     

The occurrence of antihistamines in sewage waters and in recipient rivers

Background, aim and scope  Each year, large quantities of pharmaceuticals are consumed worldwide for the treatment and prevention of human and animal diseases. Although the drugs and the metabolites observed in the wastewaters and in the environment are present at concentrations several orders of magnitude lower than the concentrations required to exert their effects in humans or animals, their long-term impact on the environment is commonly not known. In this study, the occurrence of six antihistamines, which are used for the relief of allergic reactions such as hay fever, was determined in sewage treatment plants wastewaters and in recipient river waters. Materials and methods  The occurrence of the antihistamines cetirizine, acrivastine, fexofenadine, loratadine, desloratadine and ebastine in sewage treatment plants wastewaters and in recipient river waters was studied. The analytical procedure consisted of solid-phase extraction of the water samples followed by liquid chromatography separation and detection by a triple-quadrupole mass spectrometer in the multiple reaction mode. Results  Cetirizine, acrivastine and fexofenadine were detected in both influent and effluent wastewater samples at concentration levels ranging from about 80 to 220 ng/L, while loratadine, desloratadine and ebastine could not be detected in any samples. During sewage treatment, the concentration of the antihistamines dropped by an average of 16–36%. Furthermore, elevated concentrations of antihistamines were observed in samples collected during the season of most intensive plant pollen production, i.e. in May. In the river water samples, the relative pattern of occurrence of cetirizine, acrivastine and fexofenadine was similar to that in the wastewater samples; although the concentration of the compounds was substantially lower (4–11 ng/L). The highest concentrations of the studied drugs were observed near the discharging point of the sewage treatment plant. Discussion  The highest concentrations of antihistamines in STP wastewaters correlate with the outbreak of allergic reaction caused by high amounts of plant pollens in the air. The analysis results of the river water samples show that the antihistamines are carried far away from the effluent discharge points. They may account for a part of the mix of pharmaceuticals and of pharmaceutical metabolites that occur downstream of STPs. Conclusions  Antihistamines are poorly degraded/eliminated under the biological treatment processes applied in the wastewater treatment plants and, consequently, they are continuously being discharged along with other drugs to the aquatic environment. Recommendations and perspectives  As a huge quantity and variety of drugs and their metabolites are continuously discharged to rivers and the sea, the compounds should be considered as contaminants that may possess risks to the aquatic ecosystem. Further studies are urgently needed on the environmental fate of the antihistamines and other pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment. These studies should be concerned with the stability of the compounds, their transformation reactions and the identity of the transformation products, the distribution of drugs and their uptake and effects in organisms. On the basis of these studies, the possible environmental hazards of pharmaceuticals may be assessed.     

Monte Carlo analysis of field water flow comparing uni- and bimodal effective hydraulic parameters for structured soil

Soil structure critically affects the hydrological behaviour of soils. In this paper, we examined the impact of areal heterogeneity of hydraulic properties of a structured soil on soil ensemble behaviour for various soil water flow processes with different top boundary conditions (redistribution and drainage plus evaporation and infiltration). Using a numerical solution of the Richards' equation in a stochastic framework, the ensemble characteristics and flow dynamics were studied for drying and wetting processes observed during a time interval of ten days when a series of relatively intense rainfall events occurred. The effects of using unimodal and bimodal interpretative models of hydraulic properties on the ensemble hydrological behaviour of the soil were illustrated by comparing predictions to mean water contents measured over time in several sites at field scale. Although the differences between unimodal and bimodal fitting are not significant in terms of goodness of fit, the differences in process predictions are considerable with the bimodal soil simulating water content measurements much better than unimodal soil. We also investigated the relative contribution of the soil variability of each parameter on the variance of the water contents obtained as the main output of the stochastic simulations. The variability of the structural parameter, weighting the two pore space fractions in the bimodal interpretative model, has the largest contribution to water content variance. The contribution of each parameter depends only partly on the coefficient of variation, much more on the sensitivity of the model to the parameters and on the flow process being observed. We observed that the contribution of the retention parameters to uncertainty increases during drainage processes; the opposite occurs with the hydraulic conductivity parameters.     

Incorporating layer- and local-scale heterogeneities in numerical simulation of unsaturated flow and tracer transport

This study characterizes layer- and local-scale heterogeneities in hydraulic parameters (i.e., matrix permeability and porosity) and investigates the relative effect of layer- and local-scale heterogeneities on the uncertainty assessment of unsaturated flow and tracer transport in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, USA. The layer-scale heterogeneity is specific to hydrogeologic layers with layerwise properties, while the local-scale heterogeneity refers to the spatial variation of hydraulic properties within a layer. A Monte Carlo method is used to estimate mean, variance, and 5th, and 95th percentiles for the quantities of interest (e.g., matrix saturation and normalized cumulative mass arrival). Model simulations of unsaturated flow are evaluated by comparing the simulated and observed matrix saturations. Local-scale heterogeneity is examined by comparing the results of this study with those of the previous study that only considers layer-scale heterogeneity. We find that local-scale heterogeneity significantly increases predictive uncertainty in the percolation fluxes and tracer plumes, whereas the mean predictions are only slightly affected by the local-scale heterogeneity. The mean travel time of the conservative and reactive tracers to the water table in the early stage increases significantly due to the local-scale heterogeneity, while the influence of local-scale heterogeneity on travel time gradually decreases over time. Layer-scale heterogeneity is more important than local-scale heterogeneity for simulating overall tracer travel time, suggesting that it would be more cost-effective to reduce the layer-scale parameter uncertainty in order to reduce predictive uncertainty in tracer transport.     

Cation exchange in a glacial till drumlin at a road salt storage facility

At a former wood preservation plant severely contaminated with coal tar oil, in situ bulk attenuation and biodegradation rate constants for several monoaromatic (BTEX) and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were determined using (1) classical first order decay models, (2) Michaelis–Menten degradation kinetics (MM), and (3) stable carbon isotopes, for o-xylene and naphthalene. The first order bulk attenuation rate constant for o-xylene was calculated to be 0.0025 d^− 1 and a novel stable isotope-based first order model, which also accounted for the respective redox conditions, resulted in a slightly smaller biodegradation rate constant of 0.0019 d^− 1. Based on MM-kinetics, the o-xylene concentration decreased with a maximum rate of k_max = 0.1 µg/L/d. The bulk attenuation rate constant of naphthalene retrieved from the classical first order decay model was 0.0038 d^− 1. The stable isotope-based biodegradation rate constant of 0.0027 d^− 1 was smaller in the reduced zone, while residual naphthalene in the oxic part of the plume further downgradient was degraded at a higher rate of 0.0038 d^− 1. With MM-kinetics a maximum degradation rate of k_max = 12 µg/L/d was determined. Although best fits were obtained by MM-kinetics, we consider the carbon stable isotope-based approach more appropriate as it is specific for biodegradation (not overall attenuation) and at the same time accounts for the dominant electron-accepting process. For o-xylene a field based isotope enrichment factor ε_field of − 1.4 could be determined using the Rayleigh model, which closely matched values from laboratory studies of o-xylene degradation under sulfate-reducing conditions.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.