Uncovering the evolution of tin use in the United States and its implications

• US tin use decreases as the GDP value added by manufacturing sector increases. • Global and China’s tin use increases as the GDP added by manufacturing increases. • A sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well. • US tin use patterns is not due to the finite tin reserves or resources. • Policies, substitutions, etc. play key roles in the changing tin use patterns. Tin is of key importance to daily life and national security; it is considered an essential industrial metal. The United States (US) is the world’s largest economy and consumer of natural resources. Therefore, the analysis of historical tin use in the US is helpful for understanding future tin use trends in the world as a whole and in developing countries. Time series analysis, regression analysis with GDP or GDP/capita, and historical data fitted with logistic and Gompertz models are employed in this study. Historical tin use in the US shows three stages—increase-constant-decrease, as GDP per capita has increased. Tin use in the US is negatively correlated with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector, while the use of tin worldwide and in China continues to increase along with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector. Although a sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well, that use is not directly related to the limited tin reserves or resources. Rather, policies, economic restructuring, substitutions, new end-use markets, etc. have played key roles in the changing tin use patterns. This work contributes to understanding future tin use at both the global and national levels: tin use will continue to increase with GDP at the global level, but use patterns of tin at the national level can be changed through human intervention.     

中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析

随着中国经济进入新常态,英国《经济学人》杂志构建的克强指数已无法反映中国经济的全貌,如何客观地反映中国经济的真实状况成为一个迫切需要解决的现实问题。为更好地测度中国经济运行的真实状况,本文根据李克强总理提出的"未来会更加关注就业、居民收入和生态环境的持续改善"的愿景,在原有克强指数的基础上,增加年末就业人员数、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入等就业和收入方面的指标,使用中国1995—2015年的相关数据和层次分析法构建了克强指数的修订版本即新克强指数,并将新克强指数与GDP增长率、克强指数进行了比较,发现新克强指数在反映中国经济波动和经济整体运行状态上有更为优良的性质。与GDP增长率相比,新克强指数克服了服务业比重提高带来的熨平效应,进而灵敏地反映中国经济波动情况,并对异常事件更加具有敏感性。相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数破除了因中国在第二产业上存在失衡性发展所带来的经济波动的杠杆效应,降低了经济增长中的虚假成分,从而与中国经济运行的整体关联度更为密切。此外,相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数在反映经济景气方面有着较好的时效性与关联性。采用时差相关分析法对新克强指数与宏观经济指标之间的关系进行分析,发现新克强指数在反映第一产业增加值、第三产业增加值、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、对外贸易、通货膨胀等方面具有优势。研究表明:新克强指数是更适宜测度中国经济的多元评价指标,为测度中国经济运行的真实状况提供了科学的参考依据。     

宝鸡市经济增长与环境空气综合污染指数关系研究

文章以空气综合污染指数法分析了宝鸡市2006年-2011年的环境空气质量状况,分析结果表明宝鸡市环境空气质量逐年变好。以人均GDP为经济指标,以空气综合污染指数为环境指标,建立经济增长与环境空气质量之间的计量模型,进行环境库兹涅茨曲线实证研究。研究结果表明,宝鸡市经济增长和环境空气质量的关系符合库兹涅茨曲线"拐点"后的下降部分。证明该市2006年-2011年的环境空气质量与人均GDP处于良性发展状态。     

西南地区近60年商品材消耗和经济增长关系

首次定义和使用了"GDP黄金当量"作为经济全球化背景下经济增长的新指标。"GDP黄金当量"是指把历年GDP总量按年均汇价和国际黄金市场年均价换算成黄金重量,其可在一定程度上绕开纸币的贬值或升值,反映GDP的贵金属本质,把资源消耗和经济增长的关系分析转变成物物关系分析。研究资源消耗和经济增长的关系有助于提高资源使用效率和调整经济发展方式。通过分析西南地区1949年以来历年商品材产量、人口数量、GDP总量、GDP黄金当量及其单位木材能耗之间的关系,检验了近现代资源环境与经济发展关系中的"资源诅咒"和"库兹涅茨曲线"假设,结果表明:①1952—2008年GDP总量增长了422倍,人口增长了1倍,GDP黄金当量增加了4.5倍,商品材产量增加了12倍;②商品材产量1997—2000年因天然林保护工程下降了80%,然而2008年的946×104m3又恢复到了天然林保护工程前的水平,总体上增长趋势未变;③经济发展出现3个GDP黄金当量"平台",目前处在第3个"平台"上,GDP黄金当量和商品材产量仅前20 a成线性相关(P0.01);④商品材产量和人口数量之间线性相关显著(P0.01),GDP黄金当量和人口数量之间非参数相关显著(P=0.005),人均GDP增长了162倍,人均GDP黄金当量只增长了1.5倍,商品材产量和人均GDP(或人均GDP黄金当量)之间不存在环境库兹涅茨曲线关系,也不存在森林资源诅咒经济增长现象;⑤每万元GDP或每kg GDP黄金当量的商品材消耗量先增加后减少,呈现倒"U"曲线走势,经济发展走过了劳动和森林资源密集型时期。     

Global warming and environmental production efficiency ranking of the Kyoto Protocol nations

This paper analyzes the United Nations Organization's Kyoto Protocol nations to address two questions. First, what are the environmental production efficiency rankings of these nations? Second, is there a relationship between a nation's ratification status and its environmental production efficiency ranking? Our findings suggest that the nations that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol are more likely to be environmentally production efficient as compared to the nations that have not ratified the Protocol.     

典型区耕地变化与GDP值变化的脱钩研究

研究目的：为了深入分析耕地占用与GDP值增长之间的关系，研究不同区域之间耕地数量变化与GDP值变化的差异性与相似性，有利于平衡耕地占用与GDP值增长之间的矛盾，同时有利于“状态-压力-响应”体系的研究。研究方法：主要是应用脱钩理论，引入了脱钩指数来分析不同区域各时点耕地数量变化与GDP值变化之间的关系，同时运用相关分析与回归分析的方法，确立了不同研究区耕地数量与社会经济指标之间的相关性，建立了耕地面积与GDP值的回归曲线。研究结论：耕地数量的变化与GDP值之间的关系因地域差异而表现不同，但是也存在一些相似点，即各个区域相对脱钩与绝对脱钩的年份基本一样；此外脱钩理论有利于进一步深化土地利用的研究。     

Effects of economic growth on biodiversity in the United States

For many citizens and policymakers, the empirical relationship between economic growth and biodiversity conservation has not been sufficiently established for purposes of identifying the types of economic policies amenable to biodiversity conservation. Some think economic growth conflicts with biodiversity conservation; others think economic growth conduces biodiversity conservation. With panel data from 1997‐2011, encompassing US continental states, we developed a series of statistical models to investigate the relationships among species endangerment, human population, and economic growth as indicated by GDP and per capita GDP. Species endangerment is highly correlated with population and GDP, and per capita GDP is a significant regressor of species endangerment. Across US continental states, competitive exclusion of non‐human species occurs via human economic growth and population growth.     

Uncovering the Connections Among Sustainability, Governance and GDP

This paper examines the connections among sustainability, governance and GDP, using the data from 123 countries. Sustainability is found to be related with GDP in two contradictory ways. On the one hand, growth in GDP strengthens a nation＇s ability to maintain favorable environmental conditions into the future. On the other hand, GDP growth is built on more consumption of natural resources, and therefore generates a larger ＂foot-print＂ on the Earth. Governance plays a key role in sustainable development. However, it is not helping to reduce our footprint on the Earth. In fact, good governance is linked to a larger footprint. This reflects our materialist value and human impulse. When a society prefers the comfort and wellbeing of human beings to the welfare of its environment, democratic governance might be used as an effective tool against nature.     

国际间绿色GDP核算方法评述

绿色GDP核算是通过将资源环境成本纳入国民经济核算中来实现环境管理的一种有效的经济手段。本文分析了世界各主要核算体系下的编制方式,探讨目前各种核算方式所存在问题及缺失,以加深各方面对绿色GDP核算的理解与实践拓展。     

北京市区域城市化程度与颗粒物污染的相关性分析

城市化程度的提升带来严重的资源环境问题,尤其是空气污染问题,严重影响了人类的健康。大气中的PM2.5等颗粒物已经成为影响我国城市空气质量的主要污染物。现有研究多数是对于多年来多地区的宏观研究,缺乏对于典型地区的具体数据报道。通过分析北京市PM2.5和PM10的质量浓度与不同城市化程度地区的相关关系,探索城市化程度对PM2.5等颗粒物浓度的影响。选取北京市7处具有代表性空气质量监测点,于2013年7月至10月对PM2.5和PM10的质量浓度进行连续4个月的实时监测,结合《北京市区域统计年鉴》中的城市化指标数据,包括常住人口密度、地区生产总值和林木覆盖率,对数据进行变化趋势分析、Pearson相关分析和回归分析。研究结论表明：由于北京市不同区域城市化程度不同导致颗粒物污染状况不同,每个区域的PM2.5与PM10的质量浓度虽有差异但均显著相关,PM2.5的质量浓度约占PM10的质量浓度的60%,PM2.5是PM10的主要组成成分。城市化程度与PM2.5等颗粒物浓度有明显的关系,PM2.5等颗粒物浓度与地区生产总值和林木覆盖率显著相关,与地区生产总值呈正相关,与林木覆盖率呈负相关;与常住人口密度呈正相关趋势但并不显著相关。其中,PM2.5的质量浓度与地区生产总值的相关系数为0.875,与林木覆盖率的相关系数为-0.838;PM10的质量浓度与地区生产总值相关系数为0.947,与林木覆盖率相关系数为-0.775。总体来看,PM2.5等颗粒物浓度随城市化程度的提高而增加,北京市区域城市化程度与颗粒物污染情况关系明显。我国在快速发展城市化的同时,应关注环境与经济相协调。调整产业结构,增加植被绿化,控制污染源将有助于减少北京市大气中颗粒物的污染程度,为我国的城市化进程提供相应的支持和保障。