“MMA”技术路线在太湖蓝藻水华监测中的应用

通过对3S技术整合,提出"MMA"技术路线应用于蓝藻水华监测,包括监测、测绘、分析等关键步骤。对太湖蓝藻水华研究结果表明,总体规律一致,但又有所差异。一方面,太湖蓝藻密度(CBD)、叶绿素a(Chl-a)及水华频率分布图结果均呈现"西高东低"的空间分布规律;另一方面,太湖湖心区CBD和Chl-a浓度亦较高,而遥感监测后的水华频率图显示为无水华或频率小于1%。故应参照"MMA"技术路线,综合应用3S技术,并核验比对,弥补单项技术存在的不足,全面真实反映藻类水华情况。"MMA"技术路线既适用于水华监测,亦可推广至其他环境监测工作。     

乌鲁木齐市土地利用景观格局变化研究

运用GIS、RS技术及景观生态学理论和方法,基于乌鲁木齐市2006年和2010年遥感影像解译数据,对乌鲁木齐市5年间土地利用景观格局变化特征进行分析,分别从斑块类型和景观水平2个方面对研究区土地利用景观类型进行动态分析。揭示其变化原因和内在规律,为研究区生态治理提供数据支撑,对景观的规划与管理、资源的有效利用和生物多样性保护具有重要意义。     

基于改进粒子群算法和元胞自动机的城市扩张模拟——以南京为例

为合理利用多智能体算法解决城市扩张动态模拟问题,基于地理学理论和社会学规律对粒子群算法进行有针对性的改进,提出分段式粒子群算法(SPSO),并结合元胞自动机模拟复杂时空过程的能力,构建出适用于城市扩张模拟的地理元胞自动机SPSO-CA。在SPSO-CA中我们利用多时像的土地利用数据、交通路网数据和地形数据,挖掘出1995~2000年南京城市扩张的土地转换规则。再由此规则实现1995~2008年的南京市城市扩张过程的动态模拟。最后对比SPSO-CA、PSOCA及NULL模型结果得:SPSO-CA总精度86.3%,Kappa系数为0.792,Moran’s I为0.078,PSO-CA总精度83.6%,Kappa系数为0.755,Moran’s I为0.054,NULL模型总精度81.9%,Kappa系数为0.741,真实的Moran’s I为0.072。这表明无论是总精度还是空间一致性,SPSO-CA都优于PSO-CA和NULL模型,即用SPSO-CA模拟城市扩张是可行的。     

Future implications of urban intensification on residential water demand

Over recent decades Auckland, New Zealand, metropolitan area has vastly expanded as a result of rapid population growth and low-density housing developments. In order to manage the uncontrolled low-density urban sprawl, Auckland Council proposed a compact city model through promoting higher density housing developments. In order to understand the implications of this transition on future residential water demand, this study first evaluated water consumption in three major housing types in Auckland including single houses, low-rise and high-rise apartments. Using the geographic information system, the water consumption information, estimated from a large sample of 60,000 dwellings across Auckland, was subsequently integrated with the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan outlining the future housing composition over different areas in Auckland. Through developing different growth scenarios, the study showed that the housing transition from single houses to more intensified multi-unit houses cannot considerably affect the average per capita water consumption in Auckland.     

Low-impact development for impervious surface connectivity mitigation: assessment of directly connected impervious areas (DCIAs)

Urbanization increases directly connected impervious area (DCIA), the impervious area that is hydraulically connected to downstream drainage by closed pipelines. Although the benefits of low-impact development (LID) have been examined in other studies, its effect on alleviating DCIA levels has seldom been assessed. This study measured the DCIA of urban watersheds in Houston, TX, USA. Five land-use types were categorized and the contribution of LID facilities to reducing DCIA in each type was estimated by using Sutherland's equations. The results showed (1) DCIA in commercial areas was greater than that in residential areas, especially for big-box retailers; (2) the percentage of DCIA reduction by LID varied by land-use type; and (3) optimal combinations of LID application could maximize the effectiveness of DCIA reduction. The results contribute to prioritizing land-use type for implementing LID practices and providing local governments with a useful measure to estimate runoff volume.     

基于加权叠加模型的高原湖泊流域重要生态用地识别——以星云湖流域为例

生态用地在维持区域生态平衡和保障区域生态安全具有重要意义。以云南星云湖流域为研究区,运用层次分析法和GIS技术,从水土保持、地质灾害规避与防护、生物多样性保护和水资源安全4个方面,构建了流域重要生态用地识别指标及其识别方法,并识别出流域重要生态用地空间分布。结果表明:(1)加权叠加模型更适用于高原湖泊流域重要生态用地识别;(2)根据生态用地重要性分为核心型、辅助型、过渡型和非重要生态用地,面积分别为75.98 km~2、105.05 km~2、89.47 km~2和65.11 km~2,分别占流域生态用地总面积的22.64%、31.30%、26.66%和19.40%。识别结果能较好地反映重要生态用地维护流域的生态安全。以星云湖流域作为高原湖泊流域的典型,为高原湖泊生态保护提供科学方向,以期协调流域经济发展与生态保护的矛盾,促进可持续发展。     

How dynamics and drivers of land use/land cover change impact elephant conservation and agricultural livelihood development in Rombo,Tanzania

Land use/land cover (LULC) change affects the provision of ecosystem services for humans and habitat for wildlife. Hence, it is crucial to monitor LULC particularly adjacent to protected areas. In this study, we measured LULC change in Rombo, Tanzania, an area with high-potential agro-ecological zones that is dominated by human–elephant conflicts (HECs). We used remote sensing and geographical information system techniques, questionnaires and village meetings to assess spatio-temporal patterns of the LULC changes in the study area. Using Landsat imagery, digital elevation model (DEM) and ground truthing, we classified and monitored changes in LULC from the years 1987 to 2015. We found that within Rombo, settlements were increasing, while agricultural and agroforestry lands were decreasing and respondents’ perceptions varied along the altitudinal gradient. Patterns of HEC and LULC were observed to change along the gradient and the later threatened the agricultural land and ecological integrity for elephant habitat, leading to high tension and competition between elephants and people. This research offers baseline information for land use planning to balance wildlife conservation with livelihood development in Rombo and highlights that managing the impacts of LULC changes on HEC and elephant habitat loss is a matter of urgency.     

Decline of traditional rice farming constrains the recovery of the endangered Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon)

Traditional agriculture benefits a rich diversity of plants and animals. The winter-flooded rice fields in the Qinling Mountains, China, are the last refuge for the endangered Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon), and intensive efforts have been made to protect this anthropogenic habitat. Analyses of multi-temporal satellite data indicate that winter-flooded rice fields have been continuously reduced across the current range of crested ibis during the past two decades. The rate of loss of these fields in the core-protected areas has unexpectedly increased to a higher level than that in non-protected areas in the past decade. The best fit (R² = 0.87) numerical response model of the crested ibis population shows that a reduction of winter-flooded rice fields decreases population growth and predicts that the population growth will be constrained by the decline of traditional winter-flooded rice fields in the coming decades. Our findings suggest that the decline of traditional rice farming is likely to continue to pose a threat to the long-term survival and recovery of the crested ibis population in China.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0649-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

基于GIS的茂县水资源开发利用信息管理评价系统设计

为了实现对茂县水资源的高效利用,将水资源开发利用评价的知识与地理信息系统结合在一起,设计出一个基于GIS的水资源开发利用评价系统,从而对茂县的水资源合理利用和加大开发提供一个有力支持,以满足对茂县经济社会发展的要求。本文对该系统的需求分析、系统结构、数据、系统各功能、系统实现进行了说明。     

基于BP人工神经网络的城市PM2.5浓度空间预测

针对PM2.5日均质量浓度,采用BP人工神经网络模型,预测研究区空气中PM2.5浓度的空间变异,通过与普通克里格(Ordinary Kriging)插值方法对比验证BP人工神经网络预测模型的精度.结果表明:BP人工神经网络预测模型下研究区检验样本点位置的PM2.5仿真浓度与观测浓度之间的均方差、平均绝对误差、平均相对偏差和相关系数分别为0.296 μg2/m6、0.412 μg/m3、1.650％和0.851;而与此同时,普通克里格插值方法下的对应结果分别为1.041 μg2/m6、0.689 μg/m3、11.910％、0.638.研究成果在肯定BP人工神经网络预测模型可用于揭示PM2.5浓度空间变异特征的同时,也证实了其相对于普通克里格插值方法在固定空间点位准确预测PM2.5浓度方面的优势.