A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

In vitro toxicity of selected fungicides from the groups of benzimidazoles and demethylation inhibitors to Cladobotryum dendroides and Agaricus bisporus

Twenty microfungal isolates were collected from diseased fruiting bodies of Agaricus bisporus sampled from Serbian mushroom farms during 2003–2007. Based on morphological characteristics and pathogenicity tests, the isolates were identified as Cladobotryum dendroides. The isolates of C. dendroides and A. bisporusF56 and U3 were tested for sensitivity to several selected fungicides in vitro. C. dendroides isolates were found to be more sensitive to prochloraz manganese and flusilazole + carbendazim than to the other fungicides tested (EC₅₀ values were 0.09 and 0.11 mg L^{? 1}, respectively) and weakly resistant to thiophanate-methyl (EC₅₀ values ranged between 6.53 and 12.09 mg L^{? 1}). Selectivity indexes of the tested fungicides on both C. dendroidesand A. bisporusindicated that thiophanate-methyl, cyproconazole + carbendazim and flusilazole + carbendazim had much less selective fungitoxicity than benomyl, carbendazim and prochloraz manganese.     

Management of the Panzootic White‐Nose Syndrome through Culling of Bats

Abstract: The probability of persistence of many species of hibernating bats in the United States is greatly reduced by an emerging infectious disease, white‐nose syndrome (WNS). In the United States WNS is rapidly spreading and is associated with a psychrophilic fungus, Geomyces destructans. WNS has caused massive mortality of bats that hibernate. Efforts to control the disease have been ineffective. The culling of bats in hibernacula has been proposed as a way to break the transmission cycle or slow the spread of WNS. We formulated a disease model to examine the efficacy of culling to abate WNS in bat populations. We based the model dynamics on disease transmission in maternity roosts, swarms, and hibernacula, which are the arenas of contact among bats. Our simulations indicated culling will not control WNS in bats primarily because contact rates are high among colonial bats, contact occurs in multiple arenas, and periodic movement between arenas occurs. In general, culling is ineffective in the control of animal diseases in the wild.     

中型景观尺度下斑块类型和地理特征影响杨树人工林干部病害的发生——以河南省清丰县为例

景观病理学在开展病原扩散、病害发生及其严重程度方面以其全新的视角,为森林病害的区域控制提供了新的研究技术及理论支持。首次利用景观病理学原理和方法对河南省清丰县一个中型景观下杨树人工林干部病害发生特征开展了研究,目的是解析在大尺度下斑块类型和地理特征对杨树人工林病害发生的影响。在100 km2的调查区域,以种植方式和林分类型划分斑块类型,分析显示发病株率在不同斑块间差异显著：农田间作斑块的林木发病株率显著低于孤立斑块、纯林斑块、混交林等斑块的发病株率;但发病株率在孤立斑块、纯林斑块及混交林等斑块间无显著差异。抚育管理措施对预防和减轻杨树人工林干部病害的发生起到关键左右：精细管理林分（有修枝、施肥和锄草）的林木发病株率（p=0.001）和发病指数（p〈0.001）均显著低于粗放管理林分（无修枝、无施肥和锄草等）。人类活动,如无序修剪和放牧很可能是造成村落附近林分发病率显著高于其他地点林分的主要原因。采用logistic回归,以品种编号、树龄、树高、林分密度、林分郁闭度、林分类型、斑块类型、地理特征,等为自变量建立病害发生预测模型。方程拟合达到极显著水平（Wald=71.248,p〈0.001）。方程总的预测正确率为68.2%,发病的预测正确率为79.8%。     

Habitat type-based bioaccumulation and risk assessment of metal and As contamination in earthworms, beetles and woodlice

The present study investigated the contribution of environmental factors to the accumulation of As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in earthworms, beetles and woodlice, and framed within an exposure assessment of the European hedgehog. Soil and invertebrate samples were collected in three distinct habitat types. Results showed habitat-specific differences in soil and invertebrate metal concentrations and bioaccumulation factors when normalized to soil metal concentration. Further multiple regression analysis showed residual variability (habitat differences) in bioaccumulation that could not be fully explained by differences in soil metal contamination, pH or organic carbon (OC). Therefore, the study demonstrated that in bioaccumulation studies involving terrestrial invertebrates or in risk assessment of metals, it is not sufficient to differentiate habitat types on general soil characteristics such as pH and/or OC alone. Furthermore, simple generic soil risk assessments for Cd and Cu showed that risk characterization was more accurate when performed in a habitat-specific way.     

Paradigms for parasite conservation

Parasitic species, which depend directly on host species for their survival, represent a major regulatory force in ecosystems and a significant component of Earth's biodiversity. Yet the negative impacts of parasites observed at the host level have motivated a conservation paradigm of eradication, moving us farther from attainment of taxonomically unbiased conservation goals. Despite a growing body of literature highlighting the importance of parasite‐inclusive conservation, most parasite species remain understudied, underfunded, and underappreciated. We argue the protection of parasitic biodiversity requires a paradigm shift in the perception and valuation of their role as consumer species, similar to that of apex predators in the mid‐20th century. Beyond recognizing parasites as vital trophic regulators, existing tools available to conservation practitioners should explicitly account for the unique threats facing dependent species. We built upon concepts from epidemiology and economics (e.g., host‐density threshold and cost‐benefit analysis) to devise novel metrics of margin of error and minimum investment for parasite conservation. We define margin of error as the risk of accidental host extinction from misestimating equilibrium population sizes and predicted oscillations, while minimum investment represents the cost associated with conserving the additional hosts required to maintain viable parasite populations. This framework will aid in the identification of readily conserved parasites that present minimal health risks. To establish parasite conservation, we propose an extension of population viability analysis for host–parasite assemblages to assess extinction risk. In the direst cases, ex situ breeding programs for parasites should be evaluated to maximize success without undermining host protection. Though parasitic species pose a considerable conservation challenge, adaptations to conservation tools will help protect parasite biodiversity in the face of an uncertain environmental future.     

Fungicide sensitivity of Trichoderma spp. from Agaricus bisporus farms in Serbia

Trichoderma species, the causal agents of green mould disease, induce great losses in Agaricus bisporus farms. Fungicides are widely used to control mushroom diseases although green mould control is encumbered with difficulties. The aims of this study were, therefore, to research in vitro toxicity of several commercial fungicides to Trichoderma isolates originating from Serbian and Bosnia-Herzegovina farms, and to evaluate the effects of pH and light on their growth. The majority of isolates demonstrated optimal growth at pH 5.0, and the rest at pH 6.0. A few isolates also grew well at pH 7. The weakest mycelial growth was noted at pH 8.0–9.0. Generally, light had an inhibitory effect on the growth of tested isolates. The isolates showed the highest susceptibility to chlorothalonil and carbendazim (ED₅₀ less than 1 mg L^?1), and were less sensitive to iprodione (ED₅₀ ranged 0.84–6.72 mg L^?1), weakly resistant to thiophanate-methyl (ED₅₀ = 3.75–24.13 mg L^?1), and resistant to trifloxystrobin (ED₅₀ = 10.25–178.23 mg L^?1). Considering the toxicity of fungicides to A. bisporus, carbendazim showed the best selective toxicity (0.02), iprodione and chlorothalonil moderate (0.16), and thiophanate-methyl the lowest (1.24), while trifloxystrobin toxicity to A. bisporus was not tested because of its inefficiency against Trichoderma isolates.     

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Twenty-two gaging stations were selected for developing a regional flood frequency curve for small (area less than 2 square miles) watersheds in southern Illinois. Five probability functions were compared, and the extreme value type I function was selected to develop the regional flood curve. The curve was generated with the index flood method and also another empirical method that related the function parameters to the watershed area. Estimated peak discharges with various return periods were compared with the results obtained from multiple regression analysis.