Diffusion pollution from livestock and poultry rearing in the Yangtze Delta,China

BACKGROUND: The Yangtze Delta is one of the most developed regions in China and includes Shanghai, eight cities in Jiangsu province and eight cities in Zhejiang province. Meat consumption in this region has increased with economic growth, and most of the consumed meat is produced locally. The water quality of surface waters has deteriorated in recent years. An example was the huge blue-green algae bloom in Tai Lake in late May 2007, which affected millions of people's daily drinking water. However, animal husbandry is considered to be one of the main pollution sources. METHODS: Pollutants (NH3-N, total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN)) excreted by livestock and poultry, and the resultant COD (chemical oxygen demand) and BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), were estimated using two different methods based on different data sets. RESULTS: The number of livestock and poultry has remained stable in the Yangtze Delta over the four years from 1999 to 2002, with the average number of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry being 21.1 M, 0.4 M, 7.7 M and 597.6 M, respectively. Pollutants in livestock and poultry excreta estimated by Method I were: 0.12 Mt NH3-N, 0.11 Mt TP and 0.29 Mt TN, resulting in COD and BOD of 1.34 Mt and 1.30 Mt, respectively, while the estimations based on Method II were: 0.18 Mt NH3-N, 0.15 Mt TP and 0.40 Mt TN, resulting in COD and BOD of 1.95 Mt and 1.80 Mt, respectively. DISCUSSION: Pollutants excreted annually by livestock and poultry in the Yangtze Delta are estimated to be: 0.17 Mt NH3-N, 0.16 Mt TP and 0.42 Mt TN, giving rise to a COD of 1.86 Mt and a BOD of 1.72 Mt. Approximately 25% of this pollution was estimated to enter water bodies, which means that the annual pollutant load is 43,700 t NH3-N, 39,400 tTP, 104,600t TN with a COD of 465,000 tand a BOD of 430,100 t. Pollutants from animal husbandry were similar in magnitude to those from industrial wastewater. Pigs produced the most pollution, followed by poultry, cattle and sheep. The pollution load from animal husbandry in the Yangtze Delta is about twice the average level of the whole of China. CONCLUSIONS: Domestic wastewater was the main pollution source in the Yangtze Delta, followed by pollution from raising livestock and poultry and from industrial wastewater. The pollution load in Shanghai and Jiaxing were the greatest, followed by 7 cities of Jiangsu province (except Suzhou) and other cities of Zhejiang province and Suzhou. Pigs and poultry produced about 90% of the total pollutants from animal husbandry. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: The local governments, especially in Shanghai and Jiaxing, should focus their attention on the pollution produced by livestock and poulrry. Controlling pollution from pigs and poultry will have the greatest impact in this region. Control of pollution will be facilitated by the development of large-scale livestock and poultry farming units and a shift away from small scale husbandry.     

地下水环境中甲基叔丁基醚运移过程的动力学模型

建立了地下水环境中甲基叔丁基醚(MTBE)运移过程的变系数动力学模型,并对模型进行了验证和参数灵敏度分析.模拟结果表明,地下水流速和阻滞系数对于MTBE的运移过程影响最为显著,而水动力弥散系数的影响较小,忽略其变化不会对预测地下水环境中污染物运移的环境动力学行为造成太大误差.由此得到的结论可定量研究MTBE在地下水环境中的对流.扩散特征,还可为MTBE污染地下水的预测预报、修复治理等研究提供科学依据.     

面向作物病害识别的高光谱波谱库设计与开发

自20世纪70年代以来,国内外波谱数据库发展迅速,但都存在着针对性不强的缺陷,不能满足我国现阶段遥感应用的需要。该文通过以小麦条锈病为案例的高光谱波谱库的设计与开发,实现了波谱查询、影像管理、用户管理、数据管理、反演模型等功能,可供其它面向病害识别的高光谱波谱库的建立参考。     

暴雨泥石流预报程式

论述了暴雨泥石流预报的４个基本原理,即现象可预报性原理、成困分类组合原理、判别因素简化原理和预报决策依据原理。对泥石流时间预报模型作了分类,提出了通过泥石流活动周期与降水量周期叠加,建立泥石流活动性的长期趋势预测模型;通过泥石流活动年数频次与降水量丰欠等级频次组合,建立泥石流活动年份频次的态势预测模型;根据月或旬雨量确定泥石流发生的阈值关系,建立年内月或旬泥石流发生频次的中期预报模型;由短期天气预     

基于数字流域的水文过程模拟研究

考虑流域下垫面空间变异性,基于数字高程模型构建了数字流域,并在此基础上对描述流域水文物理过程的数学方法进行了探讨,文章认为,数字水文模型是一种有物理基础的包含大容量信息的现代模拟灌河实例研究表明,数字水文模型可以十分方便地输出水文要素和状态变量的空间分布与时间序列,这对充分利用现有观测信息进行水文信息的深层挖掘创新了条件。     

阵性泥石流运动与堆积的欧拉─拉格朗日模型──Ⅰ.理论

自然界中的泥石流具有突发性和非恒定性的特点。为了模拟典型泥石流现象,在流团模型的 基础上,进一步完善了基于欧拉─拉格朗日（Ｅ—Ｌ）观点的ＰＩＣ（Ｐａｒｃｅｌ　Ｉｎ　Ｃｅｌｌ）算法,细化了流元结 构,建立了能够模拟典型阵性泥石流发生、运动和堆积的准结构两相流模型。求解该模型不仅可以 模拟泥石流运动过程,而且可以对泥石流的堆积过程、停积形态、冲刷特征及泥石流中多组分颗粒 的分选特征进行定量描述。     

物元理论在区域减灾中的应用

物元分析是解决矛盾问题的规律和方法,是系统科学,思维科学和数学的交叉学科,本文通过具体的事例分析说明自然灾害研究具有发散性,可扩性,相关性的共轭性的特点,鉴于自然灾害的特性,提出了减灾工作应在传统理论研究的基础上,应用物元理论采用可拓学的方法。     

Modeling Acidification Recovery on Threatened Ecosystems: Application to the Evaluation of the Gothenburg Protocol in France

To evaluate the acid deposition reduction negotiated for 2010 within the UNECE LRTAP Gothenburg Protocol, sulphur and nitrogen deposition time-series (1880–2100) were compared to critical loads of acidity on five French ecosystems: Massif Central basalt (site 1) and granite (2); Paris Bassin tertiary sands (3); Vosges mountains sandstone (4) and Landes eolian sands (5). The SAFE model was used to estimate the response of soil solution pH and ratio to the deposition scenario. Among the five sites, critical loads were exceeded in the past at sites 3, 4 and 5. Sites 3 and 4 were still expected to exceed in 2010, the Protocol year. Further reduction of atmospheric deposition, mainly nitrogen, would be needed to achieve recovery on these ecosystems. At sites 3, 4 and 5, the delay between the critical load exceedance and the violation of the critical chemical criterion was estimated to be 10 to 30 years in the top soil and 50 to 90 years in the deeper soil. At site 5, a recovery was expected in the top soil in 2010 with a time lag of 10 years. Unexpectedly, soil pH continued to decrease after 1980 in the deeper soil at sites 2 and 5. This time lag indicated that acidification moved down the soil profile as a consequence of slow base cation depletion by ion exchange. This delayed response of the soil solution was the result of the combination of weathering rates and vegetation uptake but also of the relative ratio between base cation deposition and acid compounds.     

Phosphorus Load Reduction Goals for Feitsui Reservoir Watershed, Taiwan

The present paper describes an effort for developing the total maximum daily load (TMDL) for phosphorus and a load reduction strategy for the Feitsui Reservoir in Northern Taiwan. BASINS model was employed to estimate watershed pollutant loads from nonpoint sources (NPS) in the Feitsui Reservoir watershed. The BASINS model was calibrated using field data collected during a 2-year sampling period and then used to compute watershed pollutant loadings into the Feitsui Reservoir. The simulated results indicate that the average annual total phosphorus (TP) loading into the reservoir is 18,910 kg/year, which consists of non-point source loading of 16,003 kg/year, and point source loading of 2,907 kg/year. The Vollenweider mass balance model was used next to determine the degree of eutrophication under current pollutant loading and the load reduction needed to keep the reservoir from being eutrophic. It was estimated that Feitsui Reservoir can becoming of the oligotrophic state if the average annual TP loading is reduced by 37% or more. The results provide the basis on which an integrated control action plan for both point and nonpoint sources of pollution in the watershed can be developed.     

Evaluation of marine outfall with three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling

Numerical models are often used to evaluate the potential impact of human alternation of natural water bodies and to help the design of the alternation to mitigate its impacts. In the past decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. This paper presents a practical study in which a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model [hydrodynamic eutrophication model (HEM-3D)] was applied to determine the optimal location for treated wastewater discharged from marine outfall system in the Keelung harbor and the adjacent coastal sea. First, model validation was conducted with respect to surface elevation, current, and water quality variables measured in the Keelung harbor station and its coastal sea. The overall performance of the model was in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to evaluate several scenarios of the locations from marine outfall system. Based on model simulation results, a location at the northeast of Ho-Ping Island was recommended for adoption because the environmental impact is smaller than any other alternative.