GIS在巨灾保险风险管理中的应用研究

近年来 ,巨灾的不断发生 ,使得许多保险和再保险公司遭受巨大赔偿 ,乃至可能造成破产。究其原因 ,除了人们对巨灾自身难以抗拒这一客观原因外 ,保险企业对巨灾保险的风险管理方法、技术和手段的不适也是一个很重要的因素。为此 ,笔者分析了利用GIS辅助巨灾保险风险管理的优越性 ,并就GIS在巨灾保险的信息管理、风险累积预测和风险管理专家系统中所起的作用和发挥的功能分别进行了探讨。利用GIS辅助巨灾保险风险管理 ,不仅可以了解巨灾的发生和变化规律 ,进行危险性区域和费率区域的划分 ,而且可以优化保险和再保险方案 ,并通过专家系统设计出符合实用灾情的风险管理及保险管理的对策 ,对保险公司的巨灾保险风险管理起到了重要的指导作用。     

基于GIS的建筑物地震次生火灾危险性模拟

地震次生火灾对人类的危害极大 ,192 3年日本关东大地震中 ,大火烧毁了 4 4 .7万栋房屋 ,烧死5 .6万余人。笔者计算了建筑物发生地震次生火灾概率的大小 ,并在此基础上对建筑物发生地震次生火灾的危险性进行了模拟。通过对基于GIS的建筑物地震次生火灾危险性模拟 ,为预防地震次生火灾的发生提供有力的依据 ,同时为地震次生火灾发生后进行应急救灾提供了有力的支持。     

Testing of a GIS model ofEucalyptus Iargiflorens health on a semiarid,saline floodplain

Irrigated agriculture has resulted in substantial changes in water flows to the lower reaches of the River Murray. These changes have led to large-scale occurrences of dieback inEucalyptus largiflorens (black box) woodlands as well as increased inputs of salt to the river. Management options to address problems of this scale call for the use of spatial data sets via geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS exists for one floodplain of the River Murray at Chowilla, and a simple model predicted six health classes ofEucalyptus largiflorens based on groundwater salinity, flooding frequency, and groundwater depth.To determine the usefulness of the model for vegetation management, the quality of both the model and the GIS data sets were tested. Success of the testing procedure was judged by the degree of spatial matching between the model's predictions of health and that assessed from aerial photographs and by field truthing. Analyses at 80 sites showed that tree health was significantly greater where groundwater salinity was less than 40 dS/m or flooding occurred more frequently than 1 in 10 years or depth to groundwater exceeded 4 m. Testing of the GIS data sets found that vegetation was misclassified at 15% of sites. Association was shown between GIS-predicted values and field-truthed values of groundwater salinity but not groundwater depth. The GIS model of health is a useful starting point for future vegetation management and can be further improved by increasing the quality of the data coverages and further refining of the model to optimize parameters and thresholds.     

Conceptual Design of a System for Selecting Appropriate Groundwater Models in Groundwater Protection Programs

/ An effective groundwater protection program requires understanding of water flow and contaminant transport processes in the subsurface. Although many mathematical models have been developed to simulate the processes, few actually are used in groundwater protection programs due to the difficulties in data collection, model selection, and model implementation. This study presents a conceptual design of a GIS-supported model selection system that evaluates available data and mathematical models to facilitate groundwater protection programs. Steady-state groundwater and contaminant transport models applied in isotropic aquifers are placed into four classes to simulate conservative or nonconservative contaminant transports in simple or complex geohydrological conditions. After analyzing specific study objectives, available data, and model requirements, the proposed system selects a class of models that can be used in simulation and recommends any need for additional data collection. This study initiates an effort to integrate GIS, mathematical models, and expert knowledge in one system to promote the application of appropriate groundwater models. The new technology of GIS and digital data-base management makes it possible to develop such a system in practice.KEY WORDS: Groundwater models; Geographic information systems     

EFFECTS OF PRESCRIPTIVE RIPARIAN BUFFERS ON LANDSCAPE CHARACTERISTICS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA,USA1

ABSTRACT: Forest buffers adjacent to water bodies are widely prescribed in forest management to protect ecological functions of riparian systems. To date, buffers have been applied on the landscape uniformly without quantifying their effectiveness or the effects they have on landscape characteristics. Our objective was to quantify landscape characteristics (amount of edge and interior forest) when buffers were applied to water bodies in a 100 by 100 km area of northern Minnesota. We used a Landsat classified image in a geographic information system platform to apply two buffer widths ?28.5 m and 57 m — to water bodies, including nonforested wetlands, intermittent or perennial streams, and lakes. A total of 107,141 ha (18.3 percent) of the forest area was adjacent to and within 28.5 m of these water bodies, while 201,457 ha of forest was within 57 m, representing 34.4 percent of the total forest area. Imposing a 28.5 m buffer on water bodies increased the amount of edge and interior forest in the study area. When water bodies were buffered with a 57 m forest strip, we found a slight increase in forest edge from the current condition, and this buffer width resulted in the largest amount of interior forest. Interior forest increased with the 57 m buffer due to the density of water bodies in this region; adjacent water bodies coalesced when buffers were applied and formed isolated forest islands that contained forest interior habitat. Instead of wholesale application of set width riparian buffers, we suggest that ecological conditions of riparian areas be evaluated on a site level and that areas that currently provide important riparian conditions be maintained on the landscape with appropriate management practices.     

Geographic variation in tissue accumulation of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) in grazing sheep

Muscle tissue was collected from ewes and lambs derived from farms throughout Scotland and sample concentrations of five endocrine disrupting compound groups were determined. Farms of origin were categorised according to geographic region. There were few statistically-significant differences with region or distance from cities. However, the magnitude of the difference between the highest and lowest mean values in ewe muscle from different regions exceeded 30% for 13 of the 15 compounds that were consistently detected in muscle, with animals derived from the industrialised region having the highest mean values for 11 of the 13 compounds. A less marked trend was apparent in the lamb muscle (8 of 13 highest were in the industrialised region). The physiological effects of such small differences in exposure to mixtures of pollutants remain to be determined.     

A spatial multicriteria decision making tool to define the best agricultural areas for sewage sludge amendment

Sewage sludge amendment on agricultural soils has recently become a practice of heightened interest, as a consequence of sewage sludge production increase. This practice has benefits to soil and crops, however it may also lead to environmental contamination, depending on the characteristics of the fields. In order to define the suitability of the different agricultural fields to receive sewage sludge, a spatial tool is proposed. This tool, elaborated in GIS platform, aggregates different criteria regarding human exposure and environmental contamination.The spatial tool was applied to a case study in the region of Catalonia (NE of Spain). Within the case study, each step of the tool development is detailed. The results show that the studied region has different suitability degrees, being the appropriate areas sufficient for receiving the total amount of sewage sludge produced. The sensitivity analysis showed that “groundwater contamination”, “distance to urban areas”, “metals concentration in soil” and “crop type” are the most important criteria of the evaluation.The developed tool successfully tackled the problem, providing a comprehensive procedure to evaluate agricultural land suitability to receive sewage sludge as an organic fertilizer. Also, the tool implementation gives insights to decision makers, guiding them to more confident decisions, based on an extensive group of criteria.     

Risk-Based Analysis of Environmental Monitoring Data: Application to Heavy Metals in North Carolina Surface Waters

The state of North Carolina's Department of Environment and Natural Resources (NCDENR) conducts routine water quality monitoring throughout the state to assess the health of aquatic systems. The current study reports the results of a retrospective (1990–2000) ecological risk assessment of six heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, and zinc) in 17 North Carolina basins that was conducted to estimate the risk of heavy metal toxicity to freshwater organisms and assess the sufficiency of NCDENR's monitoring data to identify water-quality-related ecological threats. Acute and chronic ecotoxicological thresholds (ETs) were calculated for each metal based upon the 10th percentile of species sensitivity distributions and were normalized for water hardness. Statewide probabilities (expressed as percentages) of a random sample exceeding acute or chronic ETs among the six metals ranged from 0.01% to 12.19% and 0.76% to 21.21%, respectively, with copper having the highest and arsenic and mercury the lowest risk. Basin-specific probabilities varied significantly depending upon water hardness and presumably watershed development. Although the majority of specific sites where data were collected were at low risk for metal toxicity, some specific sites had a high probability of toxic events associated with one or more metals. Analytical detection limits for metals were frequently higher than estimated chronic ET, limiting the ability to assess the risk of chronic toxicity in soft-water basins. Results suggest risk-based criteria may be useful for assessing and validating the sufficiency of monitoring programs and prioritizing management goals.     

Song-type sharing in song sparrows: implications for repertoire function and song learning

One hypothesis for the function of song repertoires is that males learn multiple song types so that they may share songs with neighbors, allowing them to match during territorial interactions. In at least one song sparrow population, in Washington, territorial males share a high proportion of song types with their neighbors and use these shared songs in matching. We recorded song sparrows in Pennsylvania and quantified sharing of whole songs and song segments. We found that song sharing is an order of magnitude less common in the Pennsylvania population. We found sharing of song segments to be significantly more common than the sharing of whole songs in three of the five fields we examined, while we found no significant differences between whole and partial song sharing in the remaining two fields. Finally, we found no evidence that sharing is greater between birds in the same field compared to birds in different fields. Taken with the data from Washington song sparrows, these results provide evidence for intraspecific geographic variation in the organization of song repertoires, and suggest that song sharing has not been a strong selective force in the evolution of song repertoires in song sparrows as a species. Furthermore, Washington and Pennsylvania song sparrows differ in how they learn song, in that Washington birds copy whole songs, while Pennsylvania birds appear to copy and recombine song segments, as has been found in laboratory studies of song learning. Thus both song learning and the function of song repertoires differ between populations of song sparrows. Such intraspecific geographic variation offers a unique opportunity to explore the ecological and historical factors which have influenced the evolution of song. Received: 30 June 1997 / Accepted after revision: 8 March 1998     

Use of a geographic information system for storm runoff prediction from small urban watersheds

The use of computer-assisted map analysis techniques for prediction of storm runoff from a small urban watershed in the United States is investigated. An automated procedure for calculating input parameters for the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method of predicting storm runoff volume and peak timing is presented. Advanced techniques of spatial analysis are used to characterize spatial coincidence, surface configuration and effective hydrologic distance. A limited verification of the automated procedure indicates that the model reasonably characterizes water flow. A sensitivity analysis of basin disaggregation suggests that the SCS method yields increased volume and peak discharge predictions as the watershed is divided into smaller and smaller subunits. As a means to demonstrate the practical application of the automated procedure, a simulation of the effects on surface runoff for a potential residential development is presented.