An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement’s economic and environmental impacts on China

Recently, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (Korea) are conducting a government-commissioned feasibility study on the Free Trade Agreement among the three countries (CJKFTA) to form a regional free trade zone in East Asia. Considering that freer trade can cause unexpected impact on domestic environment, there is a need to evaluate the environmental impact of such a trade policy. This move should be made to help negotiators understand and pay more attention to environmental issues during CJKFTA negotiations, and to help lobby with the government to carry out appropriate policy instruments for adaptation or mitigation. Following the Chain Reaction Assessment Method that integrates and links the elements of trade, production, and environment, the present research aims to quantitatively assess CJKFTA’s possible impact on China’s environment. This is done by estimating the variations of China’s major conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission in two policy scenarios to represent CJKFTA’s scale and composition effects on China’s environment. Estimating the variations is based on a static Computable General Equilibrium model, working with Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 7 database and China’s energy-environment statistics. Based on these assessments, CJKFTA is predicted to lead to notable environmental impact, including increased emissions of agricultural total nitrogen, agricultural total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, and GHGs. On the other hand, decreased emissions of industrial SO₂ and dust are also expected to happen. Suitable policies need to be made to combat negative effects and amplify positive ones, while aiming at a more sustainable regional freer trade system.     

太湖流域农户环境友好型技术采纳行为及其环境和经济效应评价——以测土配方施肥技术为例

论文基于太湖流域上游地区221 户水稻生产农户调查数据,利用Probit 模型分析了农户采纳测土配方施肥技术的影响因素,然后构建投入需求和产出供给方程,评价了测土配方施肥技术采纳的环境和经济效应。研究表明,平均年龄越小、家庭耐用资产状况越好以及上一年与农技推广人员接触次数越多的农户,越倾向于选择测土配方施肥技术,而受教育年限较少或较多的农户都不愿意选择该技术。测土配方施肥技术确实能够起到降低化肥施用量和提高水稻产量的双重作用,控制其他条件,测土配方施肥技术采用率每增加1%,化肥施用量降低0.09%(0.45 kg/hm²),而水稻单产提高0.04%(2.91 kg/hm²)。若研究区域实现测土配方施肥全面推广应用,将可进一步减少化肥用量34.91 kg/hm²,同时提高水稻产量223.98 kg/hm²,具有较可观的环境和经济效应。但是测土配方施肥技术的实际推广进程缓慢,项目管理实施也不够规范,为此,有必要加大测土配方施肥技术研究投入,加强对技术的宣传和培训工作,同时结合示范户的榜样作用,以点带面促进该技术的深入推广和规范实施。     

Estimating willingness to pay for a hypothetical earthquake early warning systems

The development of reliable, accessible, and transparent earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) for disaster reduction have been given increased priority at local, national, and international levels. Accurately quantifying the social and economic benefits accrued to households and businesses from EEWSs are a challenging and difficult task. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to evaluate the benefits of a hypothetical EEWS to the citizens of Tehran Metropolitan. This study clarifies public willingness to pay (WTP) for EEWS in Tehran, and the dominant factors involved in WTP through a CVM analysis. The survey, completed by more than 504 households, showed that on average households are willing to pay 367,471 Rials (~38 US$) per month for the hypothetical EEWS. Those willing to pay the most for EEWS are households, which currently possess a fire alarm. Also the more educated the respondents and the more children the respondents have, the more willing they are to pay for EEWS. These results could be used by policy makers and technology firms in order to determine the optimal investments in early warning systems for earthquake disaster reduction.     

事故经济损失评估理论与方法研究

简要分析了国内外事故损失评估理论与方法的共同特点及问题 ,对事故经济损失的概念和计算范围进行了比较清晰的界定 ,给出了新的事故经济损失分类方法 ,在此基础上提出了新的事故经济损失评估理论 ,建立了评估模型 ,明确了从企业角度和国家角度评估事故经济损失的方法     

PLR事故隐患分级法在上海市化工企业中的应用

PLR事故隐患分级法针对火灾、爆炸、毒物泄漏重大事故类型 ,根据事故隐患评价的基本原理 ,结合上海市事故发生及隐患普查现状 ,提出了上海市“重大事故隐患”的定义和辨识方法 ,确定了事故隐患易发性(P)、事故导致损失程度 (L)和事故后果影响范围 (R0 .5)三项评价指标 ,并将P ,L ,R三项指标组合成“PLR事故隐患分级评价表” ,由PLR事故隐患分级评价表得出事故隐患分级结果。新方法通过在上海市典型化工企业的试点应用 ,验证了PLR事故隐患分级法在化工企业中的可操作性和有效性 ,为上海市重大事故隐患的辨识、评价和整改工作提供了科学的管理方法     

城市重大危险源安全规划方法及程序研究

城市重大危险源是影响城市安全水平的一个重要因素,对城市重大危险源的规划和整治是提高城市安全水平的一个重要途径.本文在"十五"国家科技攻关计划课题"城市公共安全规划与应急预案编制及其关键技术研究"第一专题"城市公共安全规划技术、方法与程序研究"的研究成果基础上,提出了城市重大危险源安全规划的一般性方法和技术要点,以期为城市重大危险源安全规划的编制提供技术指导.     

生态环境潜在破坏研究综述

生态环境的潜在破坏是指在各种因素条件下，有可能产生的破坏。通过对生态环境的潜在破坏研究，可以在一定程度上进行积极预防，以减少损失。本文对生态环境潜在破坏从以下几方面进行研究：指标选取方法、指标权重的确定方法、潜在破坏程度的确定方法及等级划分、制图研究以及其他方面。     

基于熵权法和聚类分析法的成都市空气质量综合评价

传统方法在评价大气环境质量中存在因素较为单一等缺点,文章综合考虑多评价单元的多种指标,运用熵权系数法对成都市各区域AQI进行计算,以区域AQI年均值,区域年污染天数两个评价参数,构建成都市现阶段各区域空气质量状况的指标体系。同时利用聚类分析方法对成都市21个区县,根据空气质量指数AQI日均值进行结果验证。研究结果表明:郫县,青白江区和新都区综合评价等级最高,均在8.5以上,体现出这三个区域空气质量状况较差,综合评价等级较低的都江堰和蒲江县AQI年均值也较低,污染天数很少,其余区域的评分和其AQI以及污染天数均相符合,可以得出该综合评价模型可以很好的很客观的反映出各区域的空气质量状况。聚类分析呈现出较好的聚类效果,整个成都市各区域空气质量均值分布分为四大区域,较符合实际结果,可以为其他城市的空气质量综合评价提供一定的参考。     

基于平衡计分卡的企业环境业绩评价研究

结合战略管理工具——平衡计分卡,建立了基于平衡计分卡的企业环境业绩评价模式,并用模糊综合评价法进行了评价,将环境业绩提升到战略层面,从而能够更科学、合理的评价企业环境业绩。